The company released three quarterly reports in 2023, 2023Q1-3 revenue of 590 million yuan, an increase of 28.7%; net profit of 80 million yuan, an increase of 95.3%; of which 2023Q3 revenue of 240 million yuan, an increase of 54.3%, and a net profit of 40 million yuan, an increase of 105.5%. The company is the leader of vacuum insulation board, with remarkable advantages in technical reserves and customer resources, and steady expansion of production capacity; vacuum glass production line is in the pilot stage, with the release of production capacity and the landing of orders, vacuum glass may become the second largest growth point. Maintain the company's overweight rating.
Support the main points of rating
2023Q3's revenue and profit increased year-on-year: the company's 2023Q3 revenue was 240 million yuan, an increase of 54.3%, and a net profit of 40 million yuan, an increase of 105.5%. The gross profit margin of 2023Q3 sales was 35.9%, up 8.4pct from the same period last year, 2.1 pct higher than the previous month; the net sales profit margin was 15.8%, up 4.0pct from the same period last year, and 0.9pct higher than the previous year. The high growth of the company's performance is mainly due to the improvement of overseas energy efficiency standards and the increase in domestic demand for ultra-thin-walled refrigerators, driving up the demand for vacuum insulation plates; at the same time, the prices of raw materials and fuel for vacuum insulation plates have dropped, and the company's production costs have decreased.
Vacuum insulation board production capacity continues to expand, vacuum glass business is ready to start: the company's total production capacity is about 8 million square meters / year. In June 2022, the company announced that it plans to invest 500 million yuan to build a vacuum industry manufacturing base with an annual output of 5 million square meters, and its production capacity has expanded steadily. The company's vacuum glass 200000 square meter experimental line has been in the pilot stage, and 2 million square meters of vacuum glass project is planned and built.
In China, the permeability of vacuum insulation board is low, and there is much room for improvement: the overseas demand for vacuum insulation board is mainly driven by environmental protection requirements and energy efficiency standards, while its domestic demand is mainly driven by the demand for high-end refrigerators. In 2020, the permeability of vacuum insulation panels in refrigerators in Japan was as high as 70%, compared with an average of 10% in developed countries, while the permeability in China was only 3%, so there was more room for improvement.
Valuation
The main business of the company's vacuum insulation board is developing steadily, production and marketing are booming. We raised our original profit forecast. We estimate that the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 will be 8.5pm, 1.122pm, 1.43 billion, respectively, and the net profit will be 1.7200,000,000,000, respectively. The EPS will be 1.471.78, and PE will be 29.4, 19.9, 16.4 times respectively. Maintain the company's overweight rating.
Main risks faced by rating
The cost of raw fuel rose, the foreign exchange rate fluctuated, and the volume of vacuum glass fell short of expectations.