Morgan Stanley's Net Interest Income To Slump 14% In FY24: Analyst Cautions
Morgan Stanley's Net Interest Income To Slump 14% In FY24: Analyst Cautions
Despite MS's broad-based 3Q23 beat, Fotheringham lowered estimates by as much as 2% (lower NII and higher credit costs) as NII, a key margin driver for the WM segment, declined -9% sequentially as deposit sweep balances fell.BMO Capital Markets analyst James Fotheringham reiterated the Outperform rating on Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), trimming the price target to $101 from $102.
BMO 資本市場 分析師詹姆斯·福瑟林漢姆重申了跑贏大盤的評級 摩根士丹利 紐約證券交易所代碼：MS），將目標股價從102美元下調至101美元。
The bank reported a Q3 net profit of $2.4 billion, or $1.38 per diluted share, compared to a net income of $2.6 billion or $1.47 in the prior year.
該銀行報告第三季度淨利潤爲24億美元，攤薄後每股盈利1.38美元，而上一年的淨收入爲26億美元, 合1.47美元.
The company reported revenues of $13.27 billion, beating the consensus of $12.58 billion.
該公司公佈的收入爲132.7億美元，超過了共識的125.8億美元。
Despite MS's broad-based 3Q23 beat, Fotheringham lowered estimates by as much as 2% (lower NII and higher credit costs) as NII, a key margin driver for the WM segment, declined -9% sequentially as deposit sweep balances fell.
儘管MS在2013年第三季度表現廣泛，但Fotheringham還是將預期下調了多達2％（NII降低和信貸成本上升），原因是由於存款餘額的下降，財富管理板塊的關鍵利潤驅動因素NII連續下降了-9％。
Higher funding costs resulted from lower deposit sweep balances (down -10% sequentially) as WM clients moved cash to higher-yielding accounts, the analyst adds.
分析師補充說，由於WM客戶將現金轉移到收益更高的賬戶，存款餘額減少（連續下降-10％），導致融資成本增加。
MS expects NII to fall further but did not specify timing or magnitude; relative to consensus (2024 WM NII -9% YoY), the analyst forecasts a more marked decline (-14%).
MS預計NII將進一步下跌，但沒有具體說明時間或幅度；相對於共識（2024年WM NII同比下降9％），分析師預測下降幅度將更明顯（-14％）。
Fotheringham also raised provision forecasts, given higher credit losses on office CRE loans.
鑑於辦公室CRE貸款的信用損失增加，Fotheringham還上調了準備金預期。
The analyst lowered MS core EPS estimates by -1% in 2023 (to $5.72 from $5.78) and -2% in 2024 (to $7.01 from $7.14) due to lower-than-previously modeled NII (WM) and higher credit provisions (CRE).
由於低於先前模型的NII（WM）和更高的信貸準備金（CRE），該分析師在2023年將MS核心每股收益預期下調了-1％（從5.78美元降至5.72美元），在2024年下調了-2％（從7.14美元降至7.01美元）。
Fotheringham's 2025 estimate is essentially unchanged at $8.49 (was $8.47).
Fotheringham對2025年的估計基本保持不變，爲8.49美元（原爲8.47美元）。
On the positive side, MS still expects to reach 20%+ RoTCE (14% in 3Q23) and 30% WM pre-tax margins (28% in 3Q23) despite funding pressures and capital regulations (and assuming further expense initiatives and normalization of capital markets activity).
從積極的方面來看，儘管資金壓力和資本監管（並假設進一步的支出舉措和資本市場活動正常化），MS仍預計將達到20％以上的RotCE（23年第三季度爲14％）和30％的WM稅前利潤率（23年第三季度爲28％）。
Price Action: MS shares are trading lower by 1.82% to $73.52 on the last check Thursday.
價格走勢： 在週四的最後一張支票中，MS股價下跌1.82％，至73.52美元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
