This report is read as follows:
Mobile communication equipment leaders benefit from the gradual increase in the share of 5G; at the beginning of space-to-earth interconnection, there is great potential for low-orbit development; promote the landing of NTN standards, and actively layout broadband satellite communication systems.
Main points of investment:
For the first time, the target price is 10.82 yuan, giving an overweight rating. Forecast 2023-2025 the company's home net profit forecast is-4.58 4.24xPS 0.48 trillion yuan, corresponding to 2023-2025 EPS is-0.13Universe 0.15 yuan; considering the company's 5G main equipment share is expected to pick up, the domestic low-rail industry is developing rapidly, the company can provide a series of broadband satellite communications products, leading position, we give the company 2023 4.24xPS, corresponding to the target price 10.82 yuan.
Wireless main equipment has been recruited one after another, and the share of benefiting 5G has gradually increased. CITIC Branch Mobile has formulated and led China's 3G era TD-SCDMA technology standards; 5G era, since 2020, 5G scale deployment, the company's share has increased year by year. China Mobile Limited's share of 2.6/4.9GHz main equipment collection in 2020 is about 2.56%. In 2021-2022, the share has accounted for more than 3% of the total tenders of previous operators. In particular, in 2023, the company's share in China Mobile Limited's two bids for 700M/2.6GHz was 3.2% and 9% respectively, which has been significantly higher than before. From August to October in 2023, there will be a total of nearly 950,000 stations collected by Telecom and Unicom, which is expected to lead to a rebound in the industry.
Low rail has great potential for development, and it is in a leading position to participate in standard-setting. In recent years, China Satellite Network Group has applied for 12992 stars from ITU ITU, and the "G60 Star chain" will also realize the network of 12,000 + satellites, which has great potential for low orbit planning. The company undertakes satellite communications projects in 3GPP, ITU and other international organizations, actively arranges broadband satellite communication systems and completes 5G NTN related tests, and recently participated in the "Satellite International Mobile Communication (IMT) Future Technology Trends" officially approved by ITU-R, which better shows the company's dominant position in this field.
Catalyst: bidding for Leo satellite is progressing smoothly, 5G main equipment racetrack is rebounding; risk hint: Leo industry development is not as expected, 5G main equipment price competition is fierce.