Source: Zhitong Finance Author: Ma Huomin

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The third quarter results will be announced on October 19 (Thursday). The market expects TSMC's Q3 revenue to be about US$17 billion, down 20% year on year; net profit fell 30% year on year to NT$195.9 billion (US$6 billion), the second consecutive quarter of profit decline.

In the second half of last year, global demand for semiconductors began to weaken, but analysts said that smartphone and computer manufacturers' inventories were declining, and demand for inventory replenishment was expected to pick up.

As a result, Thursday's focus will be mainly on TSMC's outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect TSMC's fourth-quarter revenue to grow 10%, and said “performance guidelines may come unexpectedly.” One reason is the strong demand for high-end chips used in artificial intelligence.

The boom in artificial intelligence has helped drive up TSMC's stock price, which has accumulated a cumulative increase of 24% so far this year.

LSEG SmarGrate expects TSMC's revenue to grow 22% in 2024.

However, sources said that TSMC has been nervous about customer demand and told its main suppliers to delay delivery of high-end chip manufacturing equipment, but they added that suppliers expect delays to be short-term.

Some analysts have also curbed their optimism to some extent.

Fubon Securities expects TSMC to start slowly next year, with a 10% increase in the first quarter. It is expected that orders will be cancelled before the end of the year, and demand for inventory replenishment will be moderate. In particular, major customers$Apple (AAPL.US)$There is a possibility that the order will be lowered.

Fubon Securities said, “We think the market consensus is still too optimistic.”

edit/lambor