Economists See Recession Risk Waning, End Of Fed Rate Hikes: How Could Treasury ETFs React To Yields?
Economists See Recession Risk Waning, End Of Fed Rate Hikes: How Could Treasury ETFs React To Yields?
Economic experts are increasingly of the opinion that the Federal Reserve has wrapped up its current cycle of interest rate hikes. Economists are increasingly upbeat about the U.S. economy, with a growing consensus that the country is headed for what is known as a soft landing.
經濟學家對美國經濟越來越樂觀，人們越來越一致地認爲美國正走向所謂的軟着陸。
In the latest quarterly survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, 65 economists have collectively lowered their recession probability forecast for the next year. Previously standing at an average of 54% in July, this figure has now taken a significant dip to a more encouraging 48%, falling below the 50% mark for the first time since the middle of the previous year.
在《華爾街日報》進行的最新季度調查中，有65位經濟學家共同下調了對明年的衰退概率預測。此前7月份的平均水平爲54％，現在已大幅下降至更令人鼓舞的48％，自去年年中以來首次跌破50％大關。
This figure is relatively more optimistic than the New York Federal Reserve's model, which still suggests a 56% chance of a recession due to the yield differential between ten-year and three-month Treasuries.
這個數字比紐約聯儲的模型相對樂觀，後者仍然表明，由於十年期和三個月期國債之間的收益率差異，經濟衰退的可能性爲56％。
Economists Change Tune
經濟學家改變曲調
Economic experts are increasingly of the opinion that the Federal Reserve has wrapped up its current cycle of interest rate hikes.
經濟專家越來越多地認爲，美聯儲已經結束了當前的加息週期。
After pushing short-term borrowing costs to a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% in July, nearly 60% of surveyed economists believe that the Fed is now done raising rates. Of those, 23% predict the final rate hike to occur in November, with 11% anticipating it in December.
在7月將短期借貸成本推至22年來的最高水平（5.25％至5.5％）之後，將近60％的受訪經濟學家認爲美聯儲現在已經完成了加息。其中，23％的人預測最終加息將在11月發生，11％的人預計將在12月加息。
Conversely, market expectations offer a slightly less dovish outlook. CME Group Inc. (NYSE:CME)'s FedWatch tool reflects a 90% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in November, with a two-third chance assigned to the same outcome in December.
相反，市場預期提供的前景略不那麼鴿派。 芝加哥商品交易所集團有限公司 紐約證券交易所代碼：芝加哥商品交易所）的FedWatch工具反映了美聯儲在11月份維持利率穩定的可能性爲90％，而12月份保持同樣結果的可能性爲三分之二。
Inflation and Treasury Yields in Focus
聚焦通貨膨脹和美國國債收益率
Economists also foresee improvements on the inflation front. The consumer-price index, which stood at 3.7% in September, is expected to ease down to 2.4% by the end of the next year, further declining to 2.2% by the close of 2025. These projections align closely with the Federal Reserve's economic outlook, which anticipates a decrease to 2.5% by the end of 2024 and 2.2% by the close of 2025 for the PCE inflation rate.
經濟學家還預計，通貨膨脹方面將有所改善。9月份的消費者物價指數爲3.7％，預計到明年年底將降至2.4％，到2025年底進一步下降至2.2％。這些預測與美聯儲的經濟前景非常吻合，美聯儲預計個人消費支出通脹率將在2024年底降至2.5％，到2025年底降至2.2％。
Read Also: Inflation Rises 3.7% Year-Over-Year In September, Reigniting Fed Rate Hike Speculations
另請閱讀：9月份通貨膨脹率同比上升3.7％，重新引發了美聯儲加息的猜測
Additionally, economists are looking to a future with lower Treasury yields. On average, they anticipate the 10-year Treasury yield to conclude this year at 4.47%, with a further drop to 4.16% by the end of June next year.
此外，經濟學家正在展望美國國債收益率較低的未來。平均而言，他們預計10年期美國國債收益率將在今年收於4.47％，到明年6月底將進一步降至4.16％。
How Much Could Treasury ETFs Rally Or Decline?
美國國債交易所買賣基金能上漲或下跌多少？
Treasury bond prices move inversely to yields. When yields rise, bond prices tend to fall, and when yields fall, bond prices tend to rise. Treasury ETFs, which hold a basket of Treasury bonds, will experience changes in their net asset value (NAV) accordingly.
美國國債價格與收益率成反比。當收益率上升時，債券價格往往會下跌，而當收益率下降時，債券價格往往會上漲。持有一籃子美國國債的美國國債交易所買賣基金的淨資產價值（NAV）將相應發生變化。
The sensitivity of Treasury ETFs to yield changes depends on their duration. ETFs with longer average durations are more sensitive to yield changes. If yields rise, longer-duration ETFs may experience more significant price declines, and vice versa.
美國國債交易所買賣基金對收益率變化的敏感度取決於其期限。平均期限較長的交易所買賣基金對收益率變化更敏感。如果收益率上升，期限較長的交易所買賣基金的價格下跌幅度可能會更大，反之亦然。
The following table displays the potential one-year performance of a selection of U.S. Treasury ETFs in response to fluctuations in yields.
下表顯示了部分美國國債交易所買賣基金在一年內因收益率波動而可能出現的表現。
| ETF | Duration | Yield To Maturity | 1-yr return if yields fall 50 bps | 1-yr return if yields fall 100 bps | 1-yr return if yields rise 50 bps | 1-yr return if yields rise 100 bps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BondBloxx Bloomberg Two Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (NYSE:XTWO) | 1.96 | 5.05% | 6.03% | 7.11% | 4.07% | 3.09% |
| BondBloxx Bloomberg Five Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (NYSE:XFIV) | 4.97 | 4.67% | 7.15% | 9.64% | 2.19% | -0.3% |
| BondBloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (NYSE:XTEN) | 9.94 | 4.79% | 9.76% | 14.7% | -0.18% | -5.1% |
| BondBloxx Bloomberg Twenty Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF (NYSE:XTWY) | 19.91 | 4.83% | 14.8% | 24.7% | -5.1% | -15.1% |
| ETF | 持續時間 | 到期收益率 | 如果收益率下降50個基點，則1年期回報 | 如果收益率下降100個基點，則1年期回報 | 如果收益率上升50個基點，則1年期回報 | 如果收益率上升100個基點，則1年期回報 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BondBloxx 彭博兩年目標期限美國國債 ETF （紐約證券交易所代碼：XTWO） | 1.96 | 5.05% | 6.03% | 7.11% | 4.07% | 3.09% |
| BondBloxx 彭博社五年目標期限美國國債 ETF （紐約證券交易所代碼：XFIV） | 4.97 | 4.67% | 7.15% | 9.64% | 2.19% | -0.3% |
| BondBloxx 彭博十年目標期限美國國債 ETF （紐約證券交易所代碼：XTEN） | 9.94 | 4.79% | 9.76% | 14.7% | -0.18% | -5.1% |
| BondBloxx 彭博二十年目標期限美國國債 ETF （紐約證券交易所代碼：XTWY） | 19.91 | 4.83% | 14.8% | 24.7% | -5.1% | -15.1% |
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立即閱讀： IMF預測美國經濟增長強勁，但警告政府債務將增加
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。