NTPM Strong Brand, Exports to Drive Sales Growth
NTPM Strong Brand, Exports to Drive Sales Growth
WE THINK the 5.9% pt YoY drop in NTPM's gross margin to 43.6% in FY4/23 was due to an uptick in raw material costs with pulp prices contributing c.49% of cost of sales.
我們認為，NTPM 4/23財年毛利率同比下降5.9%，至43.6%，原因是原材料成本上升，紙漿價格佔銷售成本的49%左右。
Pulp prices rose c.62% between FY21 and FY23 which led to a c.10% pt decline in margins over the same period. As pulp prices have corrected c.32% YTD, we expect pulp prices to stabilise, resulting in a margin recovery in FY24F.
紙漿價格在21財年至23財年期間上漲了約62%，導致同期利潤率下降了約10%。由於紙漿價格較年初修正了約32%，我們預計紙漿價格將企穩，導致2014財年利潤率回升。
We estimate that NTPM will return to positive earnings in FY24F, delivering an FY24-FY26F EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63%, fuelled by a 9% CAGR in its tissue paper product volume sales and a normalisation in gross margins (from 43.6% in FY23 to 51.7% in FY26F) as raw material costs stabilise. Based on our observations, NTPM's tissue paper products, namely PREMIER and Royal Gold, have a keen following among its more affluent clientele, with these two brands helping to ensure NTPM's 45%-50% market share in the consumer tissue market industry over the last 20 years despite the entry of two foreign players and the aggressive pricing strategy of its main competitor, Kimberly Clark. With its strong brand name and customer loyalty, as well as consistent expansion into the exports market and volume, NTPM has managed to maintain a 12-year tissue paper product sales CAGR of 5% over FY12-FY23. While utilisation of its tissue paper products capacity hit a low of c.50% in FY23, management said utilisation has since risen to 55% as of August, driven by growth in demand for its tissue paper products in both local and export markets.
我們估計，NTPM將在2014財年恢復正收益，實現2014財年至26財年每股收益的復合年增長率(CAGR)為63%，這得益於其紙巾產品銷量的9%的復合年增長率以及隨著原材料成本的穩定，毛利率正常化(從23財年的43.6%到26F財年的51.7%)。根據我們的觀察，NTPM的紙巾紙產品，即Premier和Royal Gold，在更富裕的客戶中擁有熱情的追隨者，這兩個品牌幫助確保了NTPM在過去20年中在消費紙巾市場的45%-50%的市場份額，儘管有兩家外國公司進入，以及其主要競爭對手金佰利(Kimberly Clark)咄咄逼人的定價策略。憑藉其強大的品牌知名度和客戶忠誠度，以及在出口市場和銷量的持續擴張，NTPM成功地在12-23財年保持了5%的紙巾產品銷售年復合增長率。雖然其紙巾產品產能的利用率在23財年跌至約50%的低點，但管理層表示，在本地和出口市場對其紙巾產品的需求增長的推動下，截至8月，其利用率已上升至55%。
We upgrade NTPM to 'Add' from 'Hold' with a higher target price of RM0.75 based on a Gordon Growth Model (GGM) to better capture its medium-term profitability and growth trajectory.
我們根據戈登增長模型(GGM)將NTPM的評級從持有上調至增加，目標價更高，為0.75令吉，以更好地捕捉其中期盈利能力和增長軌跡。
Our GGM assumes a recurring 11.0% ROE (based on FY26F), an 9% COE and a healthy 4% longterm growth. At RM0.75, NTPM's implied FY4/26F P/E multiple of 13x is similar to its pre-CY18 mean, when pulp price volatility spiked.
我們的GGM假設經常性淨資產收益率為11.0%(基於2016財年)，淨資產收益率為9%，長期健康增長為4%。在RM0.75，NTPM的隱含的FY4/26F本益比為13倍，與18財年之前的平均水準相似，當時紙漿價格波動飆升。
Downside risks include increase in raw material prices, freight costs or a weaker ringgit, increase in market competition intensity and lower growth in capacity utilisation rates.
下行風險包括原材料價格上漲、運費成本或林吉特走弱、市場競爭加劇以及產能利用率增長放緩。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。