Together with the better monthly macro data, Beisen's Sep bookings rebounded strongly. We see the lock-up expiry on 13 Oct as an event that may bring additional volatility and liquidity.
Bookings recovered in Sep; but cannot avoid a full year downward revision: Beisen saw 30+% YoY growth in Sep new bookings, compared to high single-digit YoY growth in Apr-Aug; this helped boost FY1H24 bookings growth to >20%, and it attributed the sharp recovery to accelerated customers decision cycles and better demand. This encouraging change echoes the recent improvement in macro monthly data, and we expect it to sustain with more easing policies and low base. The rebound was particularly strong for CoreHR, while Recruitment and Assessment modules just reversed the previous declining trend. Factoring in the April-August performance due to weak macro and job market, we forecast 12-13% revenue growth in FY1H24 and lower our FY24 forecast from 24% YoY to 17%.
FY1H24 preview: Improving operational metrics; SBC to distort the reported numbers. We expect 7-8ppt GPM improvements (ex-SBC) in 1H, driven by (1) CoreHR is becoming more standard and mature, and (2) rebound in implementation margins without the impact of lockdown, which jointly more than offset the lower revenue contributions from the high-margin Recruitment and Assessment modules. We forecast lower opex ratio across the board, leading to narrower normalized net loss. The reported net loss, however, should widen due to higher SBC amortization (~Rmb300mn) and fair value changes of redeemable convertible preferred shares (Rmb2.8bn), both related to the high valuation at IPO. We note they are both non-cash by nature and recommend focusing on the normalized numbers. We expect the impact from these factors to subside in FY2025.
End of lockup for Round A-E pre-IPO investors could introduce additional volatility and liquidity. Beisen's share price has been quite volatile after being included in the Stock Connect scheme with a record intra-day movement up to 70%. From a trading perspective, the next event to watch in our view will be the lock-up expiry on 13 Oct. Although we expect more selling pressure after that, potential liquidity improvement should help it get onto more investors' radar.
We stay OW on attractive valuation. We lower our FY24/25/26 revenue estimates by 6%/10%/13% to factor in weaker macro and update FX assumption to spot rate. Our PT reduces to HK$10. Its current 2.2x/1.9x FY24/25 EV/sales looks the most attractive to us among peers. Particularly for EV/ARR, the most relevant metric for pure SaaS players, 2.6x/2.1x FY24/25 looks more attractive than peers.
再加上月度宏觀數據好轉，北森9月份的預訂量強勁反彈。我們認爲，10月13日的封鎖到期可能會帶來額外的波動性和流動性。
9月份的預訂量有所恢復；但無法避免全年向下修正： 與4月至8月份的高個位數同比增長相比，北森9月份的新預訂量同比增長了30％以上；這使得 FY1H24 的預訂量增長超過20％，並將急劇復甦歸因於客戶決策週期的加快和需求的改善。這一令人鼓舞的變化與最近宏觀月度數據的改善相呼應，我們預計，隨着更多的寬鬆政策和較低的基數，宏觀月度數據的改善將持續下去。CoreHR的反彈尤其強勁，而招聘和評估模塊剛剛扭轉了之前的下降趨勢。考慮到宏觀和就業市場疲軟導致的4月至8月的表現，我們預測 FY1H24 的收入將增長12-13％，並將24財年的預測從24％下調至17％。
FY1H24 預覽：改善運營指標；SBC 扭曲報告的數字。 我們預計，上半年GPM將提高7-8個百分點（除SBC外），這得益於（1）CoreHR變得越來越標準和成熟，以及（2）在沒有封鎖影響的情況下實施利潤率的反彈，這共同抵消了高利潤率招聘和評估模塊收入較低的貢獻。我們預測運營支出比率將全面降低，從而導致正常化淨虧損縮小。但是，由於SBC攤銷額增加（約3億元人民幣）和可贖回可轉換優先股的公允價值變化（28億元人民幣），報告的淨虧損應該會擴大，這兩者都與首次公開募股的高估值有關。我們注意到它們本質上都是非現金的，因此建議將重點放在標準化數字上。我們預計這些因素的影響將在 FY2025 中減弱。
A-E輪首次公開募股前投資者的封鎖結束可能會帶來額外的波動性和流動性。 Beisen的股價在被納入滬深互聯互通計劃後一直波動很大，盤中漲幅創歷史新高，高達70％。從交易的角度來看，我們認爲下一個值得關注的事件將是10月13日的封鎖到期。儘管我們預計此後會有更大的拋售壓力，但潛在的流動性改善應該有助於它引起更多投資者的關注。
我們對具有吸引力的估值保持不變。 我們將24/25/26財年的收入預期下調了6％/10％/13％，以考慮宏觀疲軟，並將外匯假設更新爲即期匯率。我們的PT降至10港元。在同行中，其目前的2.2x/1.9倍電動汽車/銷量看起來對我們來說最具吸引力。特別是對於純SaaS玩家最相關的指標EV/ARR而言，24/25財年的2.6x/2.1倍看起來比同行更具吸引力。
