The leading enterprise of Guangdong electric power has the first installed capacity in the province. The company is the only listed platform for the integration of domestic power generation assets of Guangdong Energy Group, and enjoys the priority of the parent group in domestic power project development and asset acquisition.
By the end of 2022, the company can hold 31.44 million kilowatts of installed capacity, including 29.7 million kilowatts of holding capacity and 1.75 million kilowatts of equity. In the holding installation, there are 20.55 million kilowatts of coal power units, 6.392 million kilowatts of gas turbines, 2.345 million kilowatts of wind turbines, 176400 kilowatts of photovoltaic units, 133000 kilowatts of hydropower units and 100,000 kilowatts of biomass units. The total installed capacity of holding and entrusted management accounts for about 23.38% of the installed capacity of Guangdong Province, which is the largest listed electric power company in Guangdong Province.
Thermal power: power coal improvement, electricity price increase, profit repair can be reversed. In terms of cost, the proportion of long-term association coal in the company's fuel structure is relatively low and that of overseas coal is relatively high. Since the beginning of the year, the price of domestic coal has fallen, the price of imported coal has fallen, and the company's cost side has improved its flexibility. With the increase in the exchange rate of the superimposed long-term Association, the downward trend of overall fuel costs in 2023 is clear. In terms of electricity price, the annual transaction electricity price in Guangdong Province in 2023 is almost at the top, and the company's annual long-term association electricity accounts for about 70%. It is expected that the feed-in electricity price will be significantly higher than the same period last year. In addition, as a major province of power shortage in the country, Guangdong's electricity consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.9% during the 14th five-year Plan period, and the power shortage will continue, which also makes Guangdong change its policy caliber and speed up the approval process of coal power. According to Greenpeace statistics, Guangdong Province approved a total of 10 new coal power projects, totaling 18.18 million kilowatts, ranking first among the country's 18 provinces. The company's thermal power installation has high growth space, coal power 8GW under construction, gas power 5.46GW under construction, and is expected to speed up production during the 14th five-year Plan period.
Green electricity: low-carbon transformation is active, and there is a broad space for the development of new energy. By the end of 2022, the company has wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy installed 2.52GW, including offshore wind power 1.2GW, onshore wind power 1.15GW, photovoltaic power generation 0.18GW. The Yang****zhou I and Qingzhou II offshore wind power projects under construction totaled 1 million kilowatts and are expected to land before the province replenishes the slope. In terms of cost, the price of silicon has continued to decline since February this year, and as of June 28, the price of silicon has fallen to 64 yuan / kg. In the long run, with the introduction of new silicon production capacity and the downward trend of silicon prices, the cost of the industrial chain is limited, and the company's photovoltaic installation is expected to accelerate production and release performance.
Investment advice. The company is the leading power operator in Guangdong Province, controllable and entrusted management installation accounts for about 1/4 of Guangdong unified installation, and the scale of electricity sales ranks first in the province in 2022. Thermal power plant has a large installed scale and a high proportion of coal in the market. at the same time, it actively seeks the transformation of clean energy. affected by the fall of the central coal price in the market and the further increase in the coverage ratio of the long-term Association, the reform of the superimposed power system is beneficial to the release of profitability. it has high elasticity and high growth space. It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 will be 641 trillion yuan, an increase of 14% and 11% respectively over the same period last year. The return net profit is 2.528 billion yuan, 3.502 billion yuan and 4.421 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS in 2023-2025 is 0.48, 0.67 and 0.84 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE in 2023-2025 is 12.40, 8.95, 7.09, respectively, which is lower than that of comparable companies. The company has resource advantage and profit repair flexibility, and is given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint: the installation speed of power supply is not as fast as expected; the risk of electricity price reduction; the price increase of upstream raw materials.