Good! Big news from China and the US! China's assets plummeted, the offshore RMB surged 300 points, the A50 rose in a straight line, and the Hang Seng Index rose nearly 3%

Securities Times · Sep 29, 2023 14:08

来源：证券时报

中秋节，A股、韩国股市休市，港股正常交易。

9月29日，港股几大指数上涨，截至午间收盘，$恒生指数 (800000.HK)$涨2.62%，报17827.82点；$恒生科技指数 (800700.HK)$涨3.75%，报3919.74点。

外围股市总体表现不一。截至发稿，日经225指数跌0.1%，报31841.68点；$富时新加坡海峡指数 (.STI.SG)$涨0.51%，报3223.37点。‍‍

富时A50期货指数快速拉升，截至发稿仍涨超1%。‍

9月29日，离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元北京时间04:59报7.2948元，较周三纽约尾盘涨294点。

消息面上，据外交部网站，根据中美双方达成的共识并应美方邀请，2023年9月27日，外交部副部长孙卫东在华盛顿同美国亚太事务助理国务卿康达举行中美亚太事务磋商。

港股暴力拉升，恒指大涨近3%

早盘港股高开后快速拉升，截至午间收盘，恒生指数涨2.71%，恒生科技指数涨3.66%。

科技股普遍走高，$阿里健康 (00241.HK)$涨超9%，$蔚来-SW (09866.HK)$涨近9%，$小鹏汽车-W (09868.HK)$涨超8%，$京东健康 (06618.HK)$涨超7%，$哔哩哔哩-W (09626.HK)$、$小米集团-W (01810.HK)$涨超4%。

港股地产板块走强，$新世界发展 (00017.HK)$涨超4%，$龙光集团 (03380.HK)$、$九龙仓置业 (01997.HK)$、$恒隆地产 (00101.HK)$涨超3%。

消费股集体反弹

零售板块走强，$和谐汽车 (03836.HK)$大涨7.46%，$岁宝百货 (00312.HK)$上涨5.45%，$中国儒意 (00136.HK)$涨超4%。

博彩股集体反弹，截至发稿，$银河娱乐 (00027.HK)$涨3.09%，报46.65港元；$新濠国际发展 (00200.HK)$涨2.64%，报6.22港元；$金沙中国有限公司 (01928.HK)$涨2.39%，报23.6港元；$澳博控股 (00880.HK)$涨1.33%，报3.04港元。

消息面上，据报道，澳门旅游及酒店业界表示，在节庆及烟花比赛等多元活动带动下，预料十一黄金周日均旅客可达11万至12万人次。澳门酒店旅业商会理事长卢志良表示，今年黄金周档期有烟花汇演、福隆新街步行区试行等，预计酒店入住率至少九成。

据新华社，今年中秋、国庆假期首日全国高速公路流量或将突破历史最高值，预计将达到6600万辆次。

交通运输部有关负责人介绍，今年中秋、国庆假期连休8天，与杭州亚运会赛事后半程高度重叠，公众旅游、探亲、观赛等出行需求十分旺盛，公路跨省长距离出行将明显增加。预计假期期间，全国高速公路日均流量为5700万至5800万辆次，比2022年同期增长46%至49%。

这位负责人表示，今年中秋、国庆假期期间客运量将持续高位运行，全社会跨区域人员流动量（包括营业性客运量、高速公路及普通国省道小客车出行量）将达20.5亿人次，日均约2.57亿人次，比2022年同期日均增长58.8%。铁路、公路、水路、民航营业性客运量将全面回升，营业性客运总量或将达4.9亿人次，较2022年同期日均增长78.6%。

这位负责人指出，客流分布整体将呈现“两头高、中间低”的特点，出程客流集中度较返程客流集中度更高，预计公路出行最高峰将出现在9月29日前后，京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区和成渝地区路网流量较大。中长距离出行占比将进一步提升，预计省际、市际出行或将超70%。

结合预测分析，交通运输部门将加强客流需求研判，完善运输组织方案，强化客运枢纽、重点旅游景区等区域运力投放，强化城乡客运线路和铁路列车、民航班机、水路客运航线衔接，全力满足广大人民群众假期出行需求。同时，也将及时发布客流信息，加强出行引导。

中美举行亚太事务磋商券商：积极因素不断累积

据外交部网站，根据中美双方达成的共识并应美方邀请，2023年9月27日，外交部副部长孙卫东在华盛顿同美国亚太事务助理国务卿康达举行中美亚太事务磋商。双方围绕中美关系、亚太地区形势、各自地区政策及共同关心的国际和地区问题坦诚、深入、建设性地交换了意见。孙卫东阐述了中方在台湾问题上的立场，强调一个中国原则是台海和平稳定的基石。孙卫东并就美国推行所谓“印太战略”及南海等问题表明中方立场。中方强调，中美在亚太开展良性互动符合双方的共同利益，也是地区国家的共同愿望。双方同意继续就亚太事务保持沟通。同日，孙卫东会见了美国代理常务副国务卿纽兰。

关于港股后市，野村发表报告指，仍然看到中国市场的投资价值，认为经济数据有一些初期好转迹象，政策仍具支持性，政府有明确讯号希望重振经济、金融市场及信心。该行指，投资者关注的中期焦点可能限制估值，包括中美关系及楼市表现，偏好“杠铃策略”，以未来不同的发展可能，进行分配布局，例如一些受惠周期性复苏及结构性机会的落后股份，包括可再生能源、电动车相关、高科技股等，对中资股维持“策略性增持”看法。

光大证券表示，积极因素不断累积，港股风险偏好有望抬升。首先，当前港股估值处于历史低位性价比较高。其次，8月经济数据显示，中国经济企稳迹象增多。分项数据来看，消费、工业生产、制造业同比增速多数反弹，进出口和地产增速跌幅收窄，通胀触底回升，信贷社融数据小幅高于预期。再次，中美关系边际好转，提振投资者风险偏好。中美经济领域工作组的成立，一定程度上反映了中美关系有所缓和若能持续缓和，将有利于港股市场风险偏好的抬升。

科技股方面，国信证券认为，监管政策回暖，规范化利好互联网行业长期健康发展。2022年以来互联网板块政策持续回暖，监管以“支持健康发展”为导向，市场情绪逐渐修复。自今年7月中共中央政治局会议以来，互联网行业政策面利好频出多部门发布促进民营经济和平台经济政策。

坚定信心，收获在路上。尽管美国的加息周期尚未正式结束，但是鉴于经济周期在扩张期，企业的盈利环比将逐步改善，加之外资的预期很低，加息对港股进一步压制的影响减弱；企业盈利方面，互联网企业ROE将加速回升，恒生科技EPS在于季报期间呈现加速上修趋势；恒指估值与风险溢价接近历史极值，安全边际较高。因此我们认为港股市场底部条件具备，美联储加息结束之际极有可能就是港股新一轮上涨的开始。

编辑/Somer

Source: Securities Times

During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the A-share and Korean stock markets are closed, and Hong Kong stocks are traded normally.

On September 29, several major indices of Hong Kong stocks rose. By the midday closing,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$Increased by 2.62% to 17827.82 points;$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$It rose 3.75% to 3919.74 points.

The overall performance of peripheral stock markets was mixed. As of press release, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.1% to 31841.68 points;$FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$It rose 0.51% to 3223.37 points.

The FTSE A50 Futures Index rose rapidly and was still up more than 1% as of press time.

On September 29, the offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar was 7.2948 yuan at 04:59 Beijing time, up 294 points from the end of Wednesday's New York session.

According to the news, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, according to the agreement reached between China and the US and at the invitation of the US, on September 27, 2023, Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong held discussions on Sino-US Asia Pacific affairs with US Assistant Secretary of State for Asia Pacific Affairs Kang Da in Washington.

Hong Kong stocks rallied violently, and the Hang Seng Index surged nearly 3%

Hong Kong stocks rose rapidly after opening higher in early trading. By the midday close, the Hang Seng Index had risen 2.71% and the Hang Seng Technology Index had risen 3.66%.

Technology stocks are generally higher.$ALI HEALTH (00241.HK)$An increase of more than 9%,$NIO-SW (09866.HK)$An increase of nearly 9%,$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$An increase of more than 8%,$JD HEALTH (06618.HK)$An increase of more than 7%,$BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$An increase of more than 4%.

The Hong Kong real estate sector is getting stronger,$NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK)$An increase of more than 4%,$LOGAN GROUP (03380.HK)$,$WHARF REIC (01997.HK)$,$HANG LUNG PPT (00101.HK)$An increase of more than 3%.

Consumer stocks collectively rebounded

The retail sector is getting stronger,$HARMONY AUTO (03836.HK)$A sharp increase of 7.46%,$SHIRBLE STORE (00312.HK)$An increase of 5.45%,$CHINA RUYI (00136.HK)$An increase of more than 4%.

Gaming stocks have rebounded collectively. As of press release,$GALAXY ENT (00027.HK)$Increased by 3.09% to HK$46.65;$MELCO INT'L DEV (00200.HK)$Increased by 2.64% to HK$6.22;$SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK)$Increased by 2.39% to HK$23.6;$SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK)$It rose 1.33% to HK$3.04.

According to the news, according to reports, the Macau tourism and hotel industry said that, driven by various events such as festivals and fireworks displays, it is expected that the number of visitors will reach 110,000 to 120,000 on the 11th Golden Sunday. Lu Zhiliang, chairman of the Macau Hotel and Tourism Chamber of Commerce, said that during this year's Golden Week, there are fireworks displays and a trial run at the Fulong New Street Pedestrian Area, etc., and the hotel occupancy rate is expected to be at least 90%.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the first day of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays this year, the country's expressway traffic may break through a record high, and is expected to reach 66 million.

A relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Transport explained that this year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays have been closed for 8 days, which is highly overlapping with the second half of the Hangzhou Asian Games. Public demand for travel such as travel, family visits, and watching games is very strong, and long-distance road travel across provinces will increase markedly. It is estimated that during the holiday season, the average number of motorways nationwide will be 57 million to 58 million vehicles per day, an increase of 46% to 49% over the same period in 2022.

The official said that during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays this year, passenger traffic will continue to run at a high level, and the cross-regional flow of people throughout the society (including commercial passenger traffic, highways, and passenger bus trips on ordinary national and provincial highways) will reach 2.05 billion, an average of about 257 million passengers per day, an average daily increase of 58.8% over the same period in 2022. The commercial passenger traffic of railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation will pick up across the board, and the total volume of commercial passenger traffic may reach 490 million, an average daily increase of 78.6% over the same period in 2022.

The official pointed out that the overall passenger flow distribution will show the characteristics of “high at two ends and low in the middle”. The concentration of outbound passenger flow is higher than that of return passenger flow. It is expected that the peak of road travel will occur around September 29, with high road network traffic in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and Chengdu-Chongqing. The proportion of medium- to long-distance travel will increase further, and it is estimated that inter-provincial and inter-city travel may exceed 70%.

In conjunction with predictive analysis, the transportation department will strengthen the investigation and judgment of passenger flow demand, improve transportation organization plans, strengthen regional capacity investment in passenger transport hubs, key tourist attractions, etc., strengthen connections between urban and rural passenger lines and railway trains, passenger flights, and waterway passenger routes to fully meet the needs of the masses during the holidays. At the same time, passenger flow information will also be released in a timely manner to strengthen travel guidance.

China and US hold negotiations on Asia Pacific affairs brokerage firms: positive factors continue to accumulate

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, according to the agreement reached between China and the US and at the invitation of the US, on September 27, 2023, Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong held discussions on Sino-US Asia Pacific affairs with US Assistant Secretary of State for Asia Pacific Affairs Kang Da in Washington. The two sides had a frank, in-depth, and constructive exchange of views on Sino-US relations, the situation in the Asia-Pacific region, their respective regional policies, and international and regional issues of common concern. Sun Weidong explained China's position on the Taiwan issue, stressing that the one-China principle is the cornerstone of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Sun Weidong also expressed China's position on issues such as America's implementation of the so-called “Indo-Pacific Strategy” and the South China Sea. The Chinese side emphasized that healthy interaction between China and the US in the Asia-Pacific region conforms to the common interests of both sides and is also the common aspiration of countries in the region. The two sides agreed to continue to maintain communication on Asia-Pacific affairs. On the same day, Sun Weidong met with Nuland, acting US Deputy Secretary of State.

Regarding the future market of Hong Kong stocks, Nomura published a report saying that it still sees the investment value of the Chinese market, believes that there are some initial signs of improvement in economic data, that policies are still supportive, and that the government has clear signals that it hopes to revive the economy, financial markets, and confidence. According to the bank, investors' mid-term focus may limit valuation, including Sino-US relations and property market performance, prefer a “barbell strategy,” and distribute according to different future development possibilities. For example, some backward stocks benefiting from cyclical recovery and structural opportunities, including renewable energy, electric vehicle-related, high-tech stocks, etc., maintain a “strategic increase” view on Chinese stocks.

Everbright Securities said that as positive factors continue to accumulate, the risk appetite of Hong Kong stocks is expected to rise. First, the current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is at a historically low level and is relatively cost-effective. Second, economic data for August showed that signs of China's economic stabilization were increasing. Judging from the disaggregated data, most of the year-on-year growth rates of consumption, industrial production, and manufacturing have rebounded, the decline in import and export and real estate growth rates has narrowed, inflation has bottomed out and rebounded, and credit and social finance data is slightly higher than expected. Third, the marginal improvement in Sino-US relations has boosted investors' risk appetite. The establishment of the Sino-US Economic Task Force reflects to a certain extent that Sino-US relations have eased somewhat, if they continue to ease, it will be conducive to the rise in risk appetite in the Hong Kong stock market.

In terms of technology stocks, Guoxin Securities believes that the recovery of regulatory policies and standardization is beneficial to the long-term healthy development of the Internet industry. Internet sector policies have continued to pick up since 2022, regulation is guided by “supporting healthy development”, and market sentiment is gradually recovering. Since the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee in July this year, favorable Internet industry policies have been frequently issued by various departments to promote the private economy and the platform economy.

Firm confidence, the harvest is on the way. Although the US interest rate hike cycle has not officially ended, given that the economic cycle is expanding, corporate profits will gradually improve month-on-month. Canada's foreign investment expectations are very low, and the impact of interest rate hikes on further suppression of Hong Kong stocks will weaken; in terms of corporate profits, Internet companies' ROE will accelerate recovery, and Hang Seng Technology's EPS will show an accelerated upward trend during the quarterly report period; the Hang Seng Index valuation and risk premium are close to historical extremes, and the margin of safety is high. Therefore, we believe that the bottom conditions in the Hong Kong stock market are in place. The end of the Fed's interest rate hike will most likely be the beginning of a new round of rise in Hong Kong stocks.

Editor/Somer

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

利好！中美大消息！中国资产暴拉，离岸人民币大涨300点，A50直线拉升，恒指涨近3%