QC SOLAR CORPORATION(301278):SPECIALIZING IN JUNCTION BOXES FOR OVER 10 YEARS QC SOLAR STRIVES TO GROW WITH NEW PRODUCTS
QC SOLAR CORPORATION(301278):SPECIALIZING IN JUNCTION BOXES FOR OVER 10 YEARS QC SOLAR STRIVES TO GROW WITH NEW PRODUCTS
As a leading company in the photovoltaic junction box industry, Qc Solar's profitability hit bottom. As the industry leader, Qc Solar specializes in the photovoltaic junction box and connection system industry. With strong demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry, the company's revenue/NP increased from RMB2.95/0.33bn in 2017 to RMB11.0/1.18bn in 2022, with a CAGR of 30%/29%. In 2023H1, Qc Solar reported revenue and NP of RMB6.49/0.88bn, +22%/+86% yoy. We expect the company's profitability to further improve as its COGS decreases, the proportion of high-profit new products increases, and the expense ratio declines thanks to economies of scale.
作為光伏接線盒行業的龍頭企業，QC Solar的盈利能力觸底。作為行業領導者，QC太陽能專注於光伏接線盒和連接系統行業。在下游光伏行業的強勁需求下，公司營收/淨值從2017年的29.5%/0.33億元增加到2022年的11.0%/11.8億元，復合年均增長率為30%/29%。2023年上半年，QC Solar公佈的收入和淨值為人民幣6.49元/8.8億元，同比增長+22%/+86%。我們預計，隨著COGS的減少，高利潤新產品的比例增加，以及得益於規模經濟的費用比率下降，公司的盈利能力將進一步改善。
With high demand for junction boxes from strong photovoltaic growth, the market share of leading companies is likely to increase. The global photovoltaic industry experiences ongoing strong demand, driving a high growth for junction boxes. We estimate that global photovoltaic installations in 2023/2025 are likely to reach 370/572GW, corresponding to a demand for photovoltaic junction boxes of 760mn/1.11bn sets, with CAGR of 29.5% in 2022-2025. The competitive landscape in the photovoltaic junction box industry is relatively fragmented, with Jiangsu Tongling Electric and Qc Solar jointly holding only 20% of the market share in 2022. With the fund support of IPO and overseas capacity expansions, we expect the market share of leading companies to further increase in 2023.
隨著光伏行業強勁增長對接線盒的高需求，領先企業的市場份額可能會增加。全球光伏行業經歷了持續的強勁需求，推動了接線盒的高增長。我們估計，2023/2025年全球光伏裝機量可能達到370/572GW，相當於對光伏接線盒的需求為7.60MN/11.1億套，2022-2025年的復合年均增長率為29.5%。光伏接線盒行業的競爭格局相對分散，2022年江秀克銅陵電氣和QC太陽能共同佔據的市場份額僅為20%。在IPO和海外產能擴張的資金支持下，我們預計2023年領先公司的市場份額將進一步增加。
High growth of shipments to leading module manufacturers, cost decline, and an increase in the proportion of high-margin new products drive up profitability. 1) Quantity: The company has close cooperation with leading module manufacturers, with its top five customers all being well-known module companies. The top two customers, Jinko Solar and Trina Solar, both rank among the top four in the industry, accounting for over 40% of industry sales. The company benefits from high shipments, and in response to the high market demand, the company is expanding its production capacity. By the end of 2023, the company's capacity is scheduled to reach 100mn sets, and we expect its annual shipments to reach 70mn+ sets. 2) Profit: The decline in copper and other raw material prices is driving down costs. The company has a forward-looking layout of intelligent junction boxes with cut-off and optimization functions. The GPM of intelligent junction boxes is much higher than that of general junction boxes. With an increase in the proportion of new products, the company's profitability is likely to improve structurally.
對領先模塊製造商的出貨量高增長，成本下降，以及高利潤率新產品比例的增加，推動了盈利能力的上升。1)數量：公司與領先的模組廠商合作密切，前五大客戶均為知名模組企業。排名前兩位的客戶晶科太陽能和天合光能都躋身行業前四，佔行業銷售額的40%以上。該公司受益於高出貨量，為應對高市場需求，該公司正在擴大產能。到2023年底，公司的產能計劃達到1億臺，我們預計其年出貨量將達到7000萬臺以上。2)利潤：銅和其他原材料價格的下跌正在壓低成本。該公司擁有具有切斷和優化功能的智慧接線盒的前瞻性佈局。智慧接線盒的GPM遠高於普通接線盒。隨著新產品比例的提高，公司的盈利能力可能會從結構上得到改善。
Earnings Forecast & Rating: We expect the net profit of the company in 2023-2025 to be Rmb205/295/393mn (+73%/+44%/+33% yoy), implying P/E at 21x/14x/11x. We initiate coverage with the "Buy" rating.
盈利預測與評級：我們預計2023-2025年公司淨利潤為人民幣205元/295元/39300萬元(同比+73%/+44%/+33%)，這意味著本益比為21x/14x/11x。我們以“買入”評級開始承保。
Risks: Lower-than-expected industry demand growth, intensified competition, significant fluctuations in raw material prices.
風險：行業需求增長低於預期，競爭加劇，原材料價格大幅波動。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。