Core ideas:
Benefiting from the rise in molybdenum prices, the company expects the net profit of 23Q1-3 to increase by more than 130% compared with the same period last year. According to the "Gold and Molybdenum shares: pre-increase announcement of results for the first three quarters of 2023", the company expects the net profit of returning to its mother in the first three quarters of 2023 to be between 22.5 and 2.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 131 percent over the same period last year. It is estimated that the parent net profit of 23Q3 is about 7.6-1.01 billion yuan, an increase of 15% over the previous month. According to Wind data, during the 23Q1-3 period, molybdenum prices first fell and then rose, the overall high shock, as of September 26, 23, 23Q3 molybdenum prices rose 21% month-on-month.
Molybdenum: stable supply and strong demand, grasp the upstream rhythm. Our report on March 19, 23, "Molybdenum:
Supply and demand is strong, grasp the upward rhythm, "it is expected that the sustained shortage of supply in the medium term will support the stable and strong price, and pay attention to the rhythm of steel recruitment and release." Supply and demand: in the past 10 years, the fluctuation of molybdenum supply growth rate has gradually narrowed, and the supply is weaker than the demand in 21-22 years. Direction: there is a correlation between supply and demand gap and molybdenum price, considering that the supply increment mainly comes from a small number of associated molybdenum mines at home and abroad (excluding the potential supply impact caused by the decline of overseas associated ore grade, regional political instability and meteorological upheaval); on the demand side, there is a small increase in global demand (China is stronger than overseas), and it is expected that the global demand will be stronger than the supply growth rate in 23-24, and the gradual expansion of the gap between supply and demand is expected to promote the stability of molybdenum price. Rhythm: molybdenum price is associated with downstream steel move, with macro recovery, 23Q4 steel move is expected to gradually stabilize, focusing on the later replenishment volume.
Profit forecast and investment advice: give the company a "buy" rating. It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 23-25 will be 1.02 euro 1.14 RMB 1.22 per share, the PE corresponding to the closing price on September 26, 23 is 15 times that of 11-9-9, and the average PE valuation of the company since the beginning of 22 is 15 times. The company is the leader of the molybdenum industry, taking into account the performance growth space brought by the rising molybdenum price, with reference to the comparable company valuation, gives the company a 23-year 15-fold PE valuation, corresponding to a reasonable value of 15.31 yuan per share, and gives the company a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. Stringent environmental standards lead to mine production interruption or cost rise; trade protection may lead to a decline in global economic growth affecting molybdenum demand; overseas copper-molybdenum associated mines or adopt the mining method of rich molybdenum and poor copper to rapidly increase molybdenum supply, resulting in a drop in prices.