JS GLOBAL LIFESTYLE(1691.HK):DISTRESSED VALUATION AND POTENTIAL TURNAROUND
JS GLOBAL LIFESTYLE(1691.HK):DISTRESSED VALUATION AND POTENTIAL TURNAROUND
Despite the spin-off of Shark Ninja (ex-APAC), JS global could still be attractive to the investors, because of: 1) potential turnaround of Joyoung, 2) rapid growth from Shark Ninja APAC and 3) rather distressed valuation (even after considering the small cap, holding and A/H discounts). We still give it a BUY rating with TP of HK$ 1.84, based on 8x FY24E P/E, 40% discount to industry average of 13.3x. The current valuation is at 5.4x (or 3.2x ex-cash) FY24E P/E.
儘管分拆了Shark Ninja(除亞太區),但JS Global仍可能對投資者具有吸引力,因爲:1)九陽的潛在轉機,2)Shark Ninja亞太地區的快速增長,以及3)估值相當不佳(即使考慮到小盤股、持股和A/H折扣)。根據8倍的 FY24E 市盈率,我們仍將其評爲買入,目標價爲1.84港元,較行業平均水平的13.3倍折扣40%。目前的估值爲5.4倍(或3.2倍不含現金)FY24E 市盈率。
Shark Ninja APAC is a growth driver, may account for 20%+ sales mix in the future. We do believe Shark Ninja APAC can have a bright future, because of: 1) enormous market size and 2) greater dedication from JS Global's management. The APAC (ex-China) small home appliances market has a large customer base (about 40% of world's population and 870mn household) and a retail sales of roughly US$ 7bn per year. Shark Ninja APAC's mid-term sales target is at US$ 400mn- 700mn (in 3 to 5 years, by FY25E to FY27E), where Japan, South Korea, Australia & New Zealand and India are the key regions and only South Korea will be conducted through wholesales (self- operated otherwise). Since the new APAC president arrives (he is from Dyson) in 3Q22, more innovative products and marketing were carried out in Japan and Australia, and we have seen a strong breakthrough in Jun 2023 (market share in the Cordless Vacuum segment has surged to 16% in Jul 2023, from about 13% in May 2023). Management is now expecting at least 30%/ 50% sales growth in Japan/ APAC for Shark Ninja in 2H23E (was at 23%/ 73% in 1H23). New categories such as ice cream maker and hair care product will also contribute certain growth as well.
Shark Ninja 亞太地區是增長的推動力,未來的銷售組合可能超過20%。我們確實相信Shark Ninja亞太地區可以擁有光明的未來,這是因爲:1)巨大的市場規模和2)JS Global管理層的奉獻精神更加投入。亞太地區(中國除外)小型家用電器市場擁有龐大的客戶羣(約佔世界人口的40%和8.7億個家庭),每年的零售額約爲70億美元。Shark Ninja APAC的中期銷售目標爲4億至7億美元(3至5年內,從 FY25E 到 FY27E),其中日本、韓國、澳大利亞和新西蘭以及印度是關鍵地區,只有韓國將通過批發(否則爲自營)進行。自從亞太區新任總裁於2022年第三季度上任(他來自戴森)以來,日本和澳大利亞開展了更多的創新產品和營銷,我們在2023年6月看到了強勁的突破(無線吸塵器領域的市場份額已從2023年5月的約13%激增至2023年7月的16%)。管理層現在預計,在 2H23E 中,Shark Ninja在日本/亞太地區的銷售額將至少增長30%/50%(23年上半年爲23%/73%)。冰淇淋機和護髮產品等新類別也將促進一定的增長。
Current market cap is rather distressed, even factoring in the small cap concerns, holding and A/H discounts. Based on our FY24E financial forecasts (US$ 1.78bn sales and US$ 106mn net profit att.). The current market cap is equal to just 5.5x FY24E P/E (or 3.2x if we exclude cash), which can be broken down to 5.1x/ 9x for Joyoung/ Shark Ninja APAC respectively, about 68%/ 34% discount to Joyoung's A-shares/ International peers' average of 15.9x/ 13.7x. Even if we plug in a 20% small cap discount for JS global, 20% holding discount and 20% A/H shares discount for Joyoung, the potential market cap can be as high as HK$ 6.9bn, equal to about 8.3x FY24E P/E, very close to our target price assumption of 8x. Another key reason we think JS global could be under-valued is the dividend. Its payout ratio was just at 50% in 1H23, while that for Joyoung was high at about 100% (3 years average), hence there are chances for it to climb in the future.
即使考慮到小盤股的擔憂、持股和A/H的折扣,當前的市值也相當不景氣。基於我們的 FY24E 財務預測(銷售額爲17.8億美元,淨利潤爲1.06億美元)。目前的市值僅相當於 FY24E 市盈率的5.5倍(如果我們不包括現金,則爲3.2倍),九陽/Shark Ninja APAC的市盈率可以分別細分爲5.1倍/9倍,比九陽的A股/國際同行平均市盈率15.9倍/13.7倍折扣約68%/34%。即使我們爲JS Global提供20%的小盤股折扣,爲九陽提供20%的持股折扣和20%的A/H股折扣,潛在市值也可能高達69億港元,相當於 FY24E 市盈率的8.3倍,非常接近我們設定的8倍目標價格。我們認爲JS Global可能被低估的另一個關鍵原因是股息。其派息率在23年上半年僅爲50%,而九陽的派息率則高達約100%(3年平均水平),因此將來有可能攀升。
Maintain BUY and adjust the TP to HK$ 1.84. Our new TP is based on 8x
維持買入並將目標價調整至1.84港元。我們的新 TP 基於 8 倍
FY24E P/E, 40% discount to industry average of 13.3x. It is only trading at 5.4x FY24E P/E, about 59% discount to industry average.
FY24E 市盈率,比行業平均水平的13.3倍折扣40%。它的交易價格僅爲5.4倍 FY24E 市盈率,比行業平均水平低約59%。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。