Core ideas:
The performance of income growth has declined, and the profit margin of settable resources is under pressure. According to the company's semi-annual report, 23H1 Jindi achieved revenue of 36.86 billion yuan, an increase of 31.1% over the same period last year, and its mother's net profit was 1.53 billion yuan, down 22.1% from the same period last year. In terms of profit margin, 23H1's overall gross profit margin and real estate settlement gross profit margin were 16.4% and 14.9% respectively, down 4.3pct and 5.1pct respectively compared with 22. During the period, the investment income of joint venture companies decreased by 90% compared with the same period last year, and the profit contribution ability of off-balance sheet and off-balance sheet projects decreased. In terms of expense rate, 23H1's sales management fee is 7.5%, and the financial expense rate is 1.5%, an increase of 0.8pct over the average of 22 years. 23H1's net interest rate and homing net interest rate were 6.2% and 4.2%, respectively, down 1.4pct and 0.9pct compared with the whole of 22 years.
The efficiency of sales pressure recovery is improved, and the core of land investment is gathered. In terms of sales, in the first half of 23, the company achieved sales of 85.8 billion yuan, down 15% from the same period last year. Affected by the volume of goods in core cities, the average sales price dropped 24% from the same period last year. The company improved the efficiency of repayment in the first half of the year, the payback increased year-on-year, and the overall operating cash flow was still positive. In terms of land acquisition, 23H1 took 11.9 billion yuan of land and 14% of the corresponding land, a further decline in 3pct compared with 22 years, of which first-and second-tier cities accounted for more than 80%. Shanghai and Hangzhou ranked first in the amount of investment, and the investment quality was higher.
The total amount of interest-bearing liabilities decreased and the cost of structural improvement decreased. As of mid-23, the company's interest-bearing liabilities totaled 109.6 billion yuan, down 5% from the end of 22, of which the proportion of bank loans increased to 71%. In the current difficult financing market environment, deepening cooperation with banks and reducing the proportion of public debt will help to reduce the pressure on exchange, and maintain the stability of the scale and cost of long-term liabilities. As of mid-23, the weighted average financing cost of the company was 4.39%, a further decline in 19bp compared with the end of 22.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the 23-24 net profit of the company will be 4.89 billion yuan and 4.94 billion yuan respectively, which is-19.9% and 0.9% respectively compared with the same period last year. We give the company a reasonable valuation of 0.8 times PB of its mother's net assets at the end of 22, corresponding to 11.56 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. The recovery of the industry boom is not as expected; the market promotion leads to the pressure on the gross profit margin; the rising heat of the land market leads to the decline of the gross profit margin, the policy improvement is not as good as expected, and the financing environment deteriorates.