③不过根据UAW透露的战略，他们并不会一上来就搞全面罢工。Source: Finance Federation Author: Shi Zhengcheng
① After a few hours, if there is no breakthrough progress in the negotiations, a strike action against the three major car companies will begin for the first time in US history;
② As of Thursday, there are still major differences between labor and management;
③ However, according to the strategy revealed by the UAW, they will not go on a full-scale strike as soon as they come up.
When it comes to an end on September 14, local time in the US, that is, at noon on Friday Beijing time, the American Auto Workers Federation (UAW for short) and$General Motors (GM.US)$,$Ford Motor (F.US)$,$Stellantis NV (STLA.US)$The labor agreements between the three major car companies will officially expire. Next, the war of words between the two sides will enter the moment when it actually begins to impact the economy and supply chain.
If this strike actually comes as scheduled, this too will beFor the first time in US history, a strike against three major car companies at the same time. The last time the US auto industry went on strike was in 2019. At that time, GM workers went on a 40-day strike, which is expected to cause GM losses of 3.6 billion US dollars. At the same time, Michigan also experienced a single quarter's economic recession.
How to prepare for the UAW?
In a video released on Wednesday evening local time, UAW announced that it would name this strike “Stand Up Strike” (Stand Up Strike). What is echoing here is the “sit-in strike” that occurred at GM's Flint plant between 1936 and 1937, which not only established the historical status of the UAW, but also a historic moment in the American workers' movement.
Of course, the strike that began this week wasn't as intense at first. UAW Chairman Finn said,The scale of this strike will be controlled very small at the beginning, and then gradually expanded. Throughout the process, more and more factories will “stand up” and enter a state of strike. The focus of this strategy isMake car manufacturers keep speculating “which factory will go on strike next”.
Finn also emphasized,The UAW's goal is not the strike itself, but rather to use it as a bargaining chip to negotiate contracts. However, if it is necessary to fight for rights through a strike, UAW is not afraid to bring the three major US automakers to a standstill.
As of press release, Finn has not announced the first batch of factories to go on strike during Thursday's event, but said he will wait until late Thursday local time to confirm that no agreement can be reached to disclose this information.
In a recent update on the progress of negotiations, Finn revealed that labor and management are still in a state of complete disagreement. The salary increases proposed by the three major car manufacturers are almost half of what UAW requires. At the same time, trade unions are also demanding shortening working hours and limiting the “number of temporary workers” employed by factories.
Ford CEO Jim Farley responded on Wednesday that he and the company's executive chairman William Ford Jr., provided the UAW with “the most generous offer in history” this week. According to the UAW revealed on Wednesday, Ford has raised the salary increase from the initial 9% to 20% in the latest price, while GM has raised it from 10% to 18%.
According to the latest news,GM said in an employee letter on Thursday that it has raised the salary increase offer to 20%, and increase benefits such as inflation protection.
What is the impact on the US economy?
Considering the UAW's “guerrilla attack” type of strike, it is really difficult to measure the impact.
IHS analysts had anticipated that in the event of a large-scale strike,GM and Ford will lose production capacity of 55,000 and 65,000 cars a week. Of course, that's not what's about to happen on Friday.
Goldman Sachs also previously analyzed and pointed out thatThe US factory strike could cause GM and Ford to lose $2.5 to $3 billion in revenue each weekFor comparison, full acceptance of UAW's salary increase requirements will increase GM's costs by 4-5 billion US dollars over the next 4 years, while Ford's estimates are 5-6 billion US dollars.
Of course, the UAW side also has financial accounts to be settled. During the strike, the UAW will give workers a weekly allowance of 500 dollars. Not only is this money significantly lower than the wages of auto workers, but it also lasts for a limited amount of time. UAW's strike fund currently has 825 million US dollars.Probably enough to support an 11-week full-scale strikeHowever, considering medical expenses, the actual time will be a bit shorter.
According to statistics, in the US car market, the three major car companies account for about 40% of the share. If the strike lasts long enough, causing car dealers to run out of stock, it will affect prices, as well as the inflation situation in the US. However, foreign car companies such as Toyota, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz, and new electric vehicle forces such as Tesla do not have trade unions, so the full impact of the “US automobile industry strike” will be limited to the three major car companies.
According to the forecast of the industry research company Motor Intelligence,At the end of August, Stellantis inventory was likely to maintain sales for 74 days, while Ford and GM were able to maintain 64 and 50 days.
In addition, the three major car manufacturers operate more than 40 factories in the US.A full-scale strike also means it will affect thousands of parts suppliers and hundreds of thousands of workersUltimately, these shocks will also be reflected in the economy.
edit/lambor
