Source: Finance Federation Author: Huang Junzhi

Apple will hold a press conference called “Wonderlust” at 13:00 EST on September 12 (1 a.m. Beijing time the next day). It is expected that the iPhone 15 and other next-generation products will be launched at that time, kicking off the upcoming year-end holiday shopping season.

Although the annual iPhone press conference has become programmatic over the years, such as announcing changes in the battery life, camera system, and display of the new device, Apple is expected to introduce USB-C charging for its smartphone for the first time this year. This change may eventually simplify the charging process for various devices in the hands of users.

The iPhone 15 will undoubtedly be the biggest focus of this press conference, so many analysts expect Apple to not release the new iPad or Mac until October.

In addition to the iPhone 15, the market currently generally expects that the new products unveiled tonight will also focus on two major categories: the latest Apple Watch, and second-generation AirPods Pro wireless headphones that switch to a USB-C charging port.

Some analysts say that smartphones, smartwatches, and wireless headsets happen to be the core of the Apple ecosystem, which together account for about 60% of the company's total revenue. However, Apple sales declined for the third consecutive quarter last quarter, so apart from changes in charging ports, Apple must show more highlights to attract users to upgrade.

New product highlights

At this year's press conference, Apple is expected to launch 4 models as always, namely the standard version of the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus, and the high-end 15 Pro and Pro Max (whether the name will be changed to “Ultra” is still debated in the industry).

It is worth noting that the iPhone 15 will “land on the island” in its entirety and completely say goodbye to the “bangs” screen. For the standard model, this is probably the biggest improvement in external design in recent years.

At the same time, the camera performance of the basic phone will also be significantly improved. The main camera sensor will be increased from 12 megapixels to 48 megapixels, which is comparable to the main camera resolution of the high-end version of the iPhone 14 Pro last year.

For the higher-end Pro and Pro Max series, the change in appearance may be more significant: they may use a new titanium alloy middle frame, which will make the phone more durable and about 10% lighter. Additionally, the Pro series iPhone will be equipped with TSMC's latest 3nm A17 chip, and the Pro Max will also have a unique periscope lens (this lens will support up to 5x or 6x optical zoom).

In addition, Apple is also expected to launch the ninth-generation basic watch — the Apple Watch Series 9, and the second-generation extreme sports model — the Apple Watch Ultra 2. According to reports, Apple is undergoing a comprehensive smartwatch upgrade for next year's Apple Watch Series 10, so this year's update is relatively small, but Apple may emphasize improvements in watch performance, especially processing speed.

It is reported that for the first time since 2020, the basic watch will be equipped with a new chip - an S9 chip based on the A15 chip, and add new health functions such as heart rate monitoring and a Bluetooth database. Ultra2 or a Micro LED display, will surpass current OLED screens in color and clarity, and may use more recycled metals and come with new color options, such as the all-black titanium version.

Finally, Apple is also expected to present the next generation of AirPods, equipped with a new charging case that can use a USB-C cable.

Say goodbye to the Lightning port once and for all

Prior to that, Apple had swapped iPads and MacBooks for USB-C charging, but now may be the time for the company to finally make the change on iPhones.

Less than a year ago, the EU voted to pass legislation requiring smartphones, tablets, digital cameras, portable speakers, and other small devices to support USB-C charging by 2024. This unprecedented law aims to reduce the number of chargers and charging cables consumers must face when purchasing a new device.

Ben Wood, an analyst at market research firm CCS Insight, said, “This is arguably the biggest disruption to iPhone design in years, but in reality, this isn't a major move.”

It is reported that all four new phone models will switch from the Lightning port to the USB-C port for wired charging and data transmission. However, the higher USB 3.2 data transfer speed is only applicable to the Pro high-end model, and the Standard Edition and Plus will use the usual specifications of Android phones — the USB 2.0 transfer rate.

Additionally, the change in USB-C could also bring about a new wave of charging accessories, which may come in a variety of colors. However, it is currently unclear whether a data cable will be randomly included, or whether consumers will be required to purchase their own.

Will the iPhone 15 revive demand?

The new iPhone 15 will face heavy pressure to revive demand. The annual sales volume of iPhones has been unstable for many years, but according to Jiasheng Group's analysis, in terms of growth, 2023 will be the worst year on record, and sales are expected to drop by about 2.5%.

Joshua Warner, a senior analyst at Jiasheng Group, wrote in the latest report that consumer spending is currently declining, and the interval between consumers upgrading products is getting longer, and Apple is not spared. This has caused certain losses to the company in recent quarters. However, Wall Street currently believes that the new models will allow iPhone sales to resume growth in fiscal year 2024. At that time, analysts believe they will reach a record high.

Warner emphasized that the expected increase in iPhone 15 sales will be attributed to higher prices rather than sales volume. According to some reports, Apple's goal is to keep the production of the new iPhone 15 roughly in line with the iPhone 14, but due to rising prices and increased demand for its more expensive Pro version, Apple's overall mobile phone revenue will increase accordingly.

Many media broke the news that out of the four models released this time, the standard version and the Plus version may not change, but the Pro and Pro Max may rise by $100 and $200 respectively.

US investment bank Wedbush analyst Dan Ives also pointed out in a previous report that Apple's new product lineup will provide notable new features and be accompanied by price increases, thus driving Apple into a “mini supercycle.”

Wedbush estimates that considering that about 25% of the 1.2 billion Apple users have delayed iPhone upgrades for four years, Apple may find that demand from its customers is strong.

Where will the Apple stock market go from now on?

The launch of the new iPhone is one of Apple's biggest events this year, but it hasn't been proven to be the main catalyst for stock prices in the past. Warner pointed out that in fact, looking back at all press conferences since the first iPhone was released in 2007, we can see that Apple's stock price fell twice the number of times it rose in the month the press conference was held.

According to the Jiasheng report, judging from the monthly chart, Apple has tested the support zone between $177.50 and $172. This support zone was once a resistance zone for 2022.

The daily chart shows that the stock could fall to $170.50 before finding some support, so if it continues to face pressure, this could be the bottom. From an upward perspective, the immediate goal is to return to above $191.50 and recover the losses that occurred after the latest earnings report was released more than a month ago.

Ives, on the other hand, pointed out that the upcoming iPhone 15 will drive Apple's stock price up 20% from the current level. He maintained his holdings rating for the tech giant and maintained his target share price of $230.

Apple is the most weighted component of the NASDAQ 100 index, accounting for 11.4%, so if Apple's stock price fluctuates greatly before and after tonight's press conference, it will inevitably affect the trend of the NASDAQ.

Some analysts expect that the NASDAQ 100 is currently fluctuating between the 20-day and 50-day EMA. A return to the 20-day EMA is a top priority before testing the resistance level again and trying to reach a new September high.

edit/lambor