EVA HOLDINGS(838.HK):BETTER 2H23 AND FY24 AS MEXICO TO TURN PROFITABLE
EVA HOLDINGS(838.HK):BETTER 2H23 AND FY24 AS MEXICO TO TURN PROFITABLE
Therefore, we expect EVA's auto parts GPM to widen to 22% in 2H23E and its Mexico plant to turn profitable in 2H23E.EVA's 1H23 earnings beat our prior forecast despite lower revenue and GPM, due to higher other income and one-off gains. We expect its Mexico plant to turn profitable in 2H23E, after meeting with management. We expect EVA's FY24E net profit to rise 20% YoY, mainly contributed by its Mexico plant and lower interest expense. Its office automation (OA) equipment business remains resilient during the downturn.
由于其他收入增加和一次性收益，尽管收入和毛利率有所下降，但长荣航空23年上半年的收益仍超过了我们之前的预期。在与管理层会晤后，我们预计其墨西哥工厂将在 2H23E 中实现盈利。我们预计长荣汽车的 FY24E 净利润将同比增长20％，这主要归功于其墨西哥工厂和利息支出的减少。在经济低迷时期，其办公自动化（OA）设备业务保持弹性。
1H23 earnings slightly beat on other income and gains. EVA's 1H23 revenue and gross margin were both below our prior expectation, dragged by Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/601633 CH, BUY), SAIC-GM-Wuling and inventory clearance for Lucid (LCID US, NR) and OA equipment. Its cost reduction efforts resulted in a 1 ppt YoY cut for SG&A ratio in 1H23, despite lower revenue. Its other income tripled YoY in 1H23, due to higher government grants and rental income. EVA also benefited from a one-off gain of reversed provision at previously acquired Futaba Metal Shenzhen (HK$ 14mn) and forex gain (HK$ 28mn).
2023年上半年的收益略高于其他收入和收益。受长城汽车（2333 HK/601633 CH，买入）、上汽通用五菱以及Lucid（LCID US，NR）和OA设备清仓的拖累，长荣汽车23年上半年的收入和毛利率均低于我们先前的预期。尽管收入减少，但其削减成本的努力导致23年上半年的销售和收购比率同比下调了1个百分点。由于政府补助金和租金收入增加，其其他收入在23年上半年同比增长了两倍。长荣航空还受益于先前收购的深圳双叶金属的一次性反向准备金（1400万港元）和外汇收益（2,800万港元）。
We expect Mexico plant to turn profitable in 2H23. EVA has re-negotiated with Faurecia and raised price by 5-6% in Mexico from 2023 for five years. We estimate such price hike could lift EVA's auto parts GPM by more than 1 ppt, as Faurecia (including the Tesla Model Y's backseat frame) accounts for 60% of EVA's Mexico revenue and Mexico accounts for 37% of EVA's auto parts revenue (and is still rising). In addition, such 'subsidies' of about HK$ 10mn for 1H23 will be booked in 2H23, as the negotiation was completed in 2H23.
我们预计墨西哥工厂将在23年下半年实现盈利。长荣汽车已与佛吉亚重新谈判，并从2023年起在墨西哥将价格提高了5-6％，为期五年。我们估计，这种涨价可能会使长荣汽车的汽车零部件GPM提高1个百分点以上，因为佛吉亚（包括特斯拉Model Y的后座车架）占EVA墨西哥收入的60％，而墨西哥占长荣汽车零部件收入的37％（并且仍在增长）。此外，由于谈判已于23年下半年完成，因此23年上半年约1000万港元的 “补贴” 将在23年下半年入账。
Therefore, we expect EVA's auto parts GPM to widen to 22% in 2H23E and its Mexico plant to turn profitable in 2H23E.
因此，我们预计长荣汽车的汽车零部件毛利率将在 2H23E 中扩大至22％，其墨西哥工厂将在 2H23E 中实现盈利。
New Tesla orders of about HK$ 120mn per annum from FY25E onwards.
从 FY25E 起，特斯拉每年新订单约为1.2亿港元。
Tesla's (TSLA US, NR) front seat frame contributed about HK$ 60-70mn to EVA's revenue in 1H23, as Tesla's Austin plant's production ramp-up was slower-than-expected. The company targets a revenue of HK$ 150mn (7mn units) from Tesla (as a tier-1 supplier) in FY23E, in line with our forecast for Tesla's North America production. We expect Tesla to contribute about HK$ 240mn to EVA's revenue in FY24E, as the Austin Gigafactory ramps up, and HK$ 380mn in FY25E, as EVA has just secured a new seat frame welding component which could bring about HK$ 120mn per annum from FY25E for five years.
由于特斯拉奥斯汀工厂的产量增长低于预期，特斯拉（TSLA US，NR）的前排座椅框架为长荣汽车23年上半年的收入贡献了约6000万至7000万港元。该公司的目标是特斯拉（作为一级供应商）在 FY23E 中实现1.5亿港元（700万辆）的收入，符合我们对特斯拉北美产量的预测。我们预计，随着奥斯汀超级工厂的增长，特斯拉将为长荣在 FY24E 中的收入贡献约2.4亿港元，在 FY25E 中贡献3.8亿港元，因为长荣刚刚获得了新的座椅框架焊接部件，该部件可能在五年内从FY25E 中每年带来约1.2亿港元的收入。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。
