EVA HOLDINGS(838.HK):BETTER 2H23 AND FY24 AS MEXICO TO TURN PROFITABLE
EVA HOLDINGS(838.HK):BETTER 2H23 AND FY24 AS MEXICO TO TURN PROFITABLE
EVA's 1H23 earnings beat our prior forecast despite lower revenue and GPM, due to higher other income and one-off gains. We expect its Mexico plant to turn profitable in 2H23E, after meeting with management. We expect EVA's FY24E net profit to rise 20% YoY, mainly contributed by its Mexico plant and lower interest expense. Its office automation (OA) equipment business remains resilient during the downturn.
由於其他收入增加和一次性收益，儘管收入和毛利率有所下降，但長榮航空23年上半年的收益仍超過了我們之前的預期。在與管理層會晤後，我們預計其墨西哥工廠將在 2H23E 中實現盈利。我們預計長榮汽車的 FY24E 淨利潤將同比增長20％，這主要歸功於其墨西哥工廠和利息支出的減少。在經濟低迷時期，其辦公自動化（OA）設備業務保持彈性。
1H23 earnings slightly beat on other income and gains. EVA's 1H23 revenue and gross margin were both below our prior expectation, dragged by Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/601633 CH, BUY), SAIC-GM-Wuling and inventory clearance for Lucid (LCID US, NR) and OA equipment. Its cost reduction efforts resulted in a 1 ppt YoY cut for SG&A ratio in 1H23, despite lower revenue. Its other income tripled YoY in 1H23, due to higher government grants and rental income. EVA also benefited from a one-off gain of reversed provision at previously acquired Futaba Metal Shenzhen (HK$ 14mn) and forex gain (HK$ 28mn).
2023年上半年的收益略高於其他收入和收益。受長城汽車（2333 HK/601633 CH，買入）、上汽通用五菱以及Lucid（LCID US，NR）和OA設備清倉的拖累，長榮汽車23年上半年的收入和毛利率均低於我們先前的預期。儘管收入減少，但其削減成本的努力導致23年上半年的銷售和收購比率同比下調了1個百分點。由於政府補助金和租金收入增加，其其他收入在23年上半年同比增長了兩倍。長榮航空還受益於先前收購的深圳雙葉金屬的一次性反向準備金（1400萬港元）和外匯收益（2,800萬港元）。
We expect Mexico plant to turn profitable in 2H23. EVA has re-negotiated with Faurecia and raised price by 5-6% in Mexico from 2023 for five years. We estimate such price hike could lift EVA's auto parts GPM by more than 1 ppt, as Faurecia (including the Tesla Model Y's backseat frame) accounts for 60% of EVA's Mexico revenue and Mexico accounts for 37% of EVA's auto parts revenue (and is still rising). In addition, such 'subsidies' of about HK$ 10mn for 1H23 will be booked in 2H23, as the negotiation was completed in 2H23.
我們預計墨西哥工廠將在23年下半年實現盈利。長榮汽車已與佛吉亞重新談判，並從2023年起在墨西哥將價格提高了5-6％，爲期五年。我們估計，這種漲價可能會使長榮汽車的汽車零部件GPM提高1個百分點以上，因爲佛吉亞（包括特斯拉Model Y的後座車架）佔EVA墨西哥收入的60％，而墨西哥佔長榮汽車零部件收入的37％（並且仍在增長）。此外，由於談判已於23年下半年完成，因此23年上半年約1000萬港元的 “補貼” 將在23年下半年入賬。
Therefore, we expect EVA's auto parts GPM to widen to 22% in 2H23E and its Mexico plant to turn profitable in 2H23E.
因此，我們預計長榮汽車的汽車零部件毛利率將在 2H23E 中擴大至22％，其墨西哥工廠將在 2H23E 中實現盈利。
New Tesla orders of about HK$ 120mn per annum from FY25E onwards.
從 FY25E 起，特斯拉每年新訂單約爲1.2億港元。
Tesla's (TSLA US, NR) front seat frame contributed about HK$ 60-70mn to EVA's revenue in 1H23, as Tesla's Austin plant's production ramp-up was slower-than-expected. The company targets a revenue of HK$ 150mn (7mn units) from Tesla (as a tier-1 supplier) in FY23E, in line with our forecast for Tesla's North America production. We expect Tesla to contribute about HK$ 240mn to EVA's revenue in FY24E, as the Austin Gigafactory ramps up, and HK$ 380mn in FY25E, as EVA has just secured a new seat frame welding component which could bring about HK$ 120mn per annum from FY25E for five years.
由於特斯拉奧斯汀工廠的產量增長低於預期，特斯拉（TSLA US，NR）的前排座椅框架爲長榮汽車23年上半年的收入貢獻了約6000萬至7000萬港元。該公司的目標是特斯拉（作爲一級供應商）在 FY23E 中實現1.5億港元（700萬輛）的收入，符合我們對特斯拉北美產量的預測。我們預計，隨着奧斯汀超級工廠的增長，特斯拉將爲長榮在 FY24E 中的收入貢獻約2.4億港元，在 FY25E 中貢獻3.8億港元，因爲長榮剛剛獲得了新的座椅框架焊接部件，該部件可能在五年內從FY25E 中每年帶來約1.2億港元的收入。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。