TONGDA(698.HK):POSITIVE ON ANDROID RECOVERY APPLE SHARE GAIN AND NON-SMARTPHONE BIZ ORDER WINS
TONGDA(698.HK):POSITIVE ON ANDROID RECOVERY APPLE SHARE GAIN AND NON-SMARTPHONE BIZ ORDER WINS
We spoke to mgmt. for business update post 1H23 results, and expect gradual recovery on track into 2H23/FY24E. Despite 1H23 revenue miss on smartphone inventory correction, GPM improved 2.4ppts YoY due to rising Apple's sales mix and improving operating efficiency. Looking into 2H23E, we are positive on Android recovery, Apple's casing material upgrade for better ASP/share gain and non-smartphone order wins. Apple now becomes Tongda's largest client (37% of FY23E sales), and we expect further share gain and more resilient growth ahead. Our new TP of HK$ 0.17 is based on rolled-over 6.0x FY24E P/E.
我們與mgmt進行了交談，以了解23年上半年業績的最新情況，並預計將在24財年下半年逐步復甦。儘管智能手機庫存調整導致23年上半年收入虧損，但由於蘋果的銷售組合增加和運營效率的提高，GPM同比增長了2.4個百分點。展望 2H23E，我們對安卓的復甦、蘋果爲提高ASP/份額收益而升級外殼材料以及贏得非智能手機訂單持樂觀態度。蘋果現在成爲通達最大的客戶（FY23E 銷售額的37％），我們預計未來份額將進一步增長和更具彈性的增長。我們的新目標價爲0.17港元，基於展期6.0倍的 FY24E 市盈率。
Trading at 4.4x/2.8x FY23/24E P/E (10-year low), we think the stock is extremely attractive. Catalysts include Apple's product launch and margin recovery.
我們認爲該股的交易價格爲2.8倍/23財年的4.4倍/2.8倍（10年來的最低水平），我們認爲該股極具吸引力。催化劑包括蘋果的產品發佈和利潤回升。
1H23 review: GPM beat on better sales mix and improving efficiency.
2023 年上半年回顧：銷售組合的改善和效率的提高，GPM 勝過了銷售總額。
Tongda's 1H23 revenue decline of 29.9% YoY was 10%/10% below our/ consensus estimates, mainly due to 27% YoY decline of handset casings & high-precision components (74% sales mix) for smartphone weakness and inventory correction. Household and sports goods revenue dropped 35% YoY on overseas customers' inventory correction. Network communication facilities and others' revenue was down 43% YoY. GPM improved 2.4ppts YoY to 20.3% driven by better product mix and operating efficiency. EBITDA margin improved 5.1ppts YoY to 20.1%, and one-off loss of HK$28mn for disposed EA business resulted in net profit decline of 44.5% YoY.
通達23年上半年收入同比下降29.9％，比我們的共識預期低10％/10％，這主要是由於智能手機疲軟和庫存調整，手機外殼和高精度組件（銷售組合爲74％）同比下降27％。由於海外客戶的庫存調整，家居和體育用品收入同比下降35％。網絡通信設施和其他設施的收入同比下降43％。受產品組合和運營效率改善的推動，GPM同比增長2.4個百分點至20.3％。息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率同比增長5.1個百分點至20.1％，出售的EA業務的一次性虧損2,800萬港元，淨利潤同比下降44.5％。
2H23E outlook: Android recovery, Apple share gain and positive on non-smartphone orders. For Android business, mgmt. expects casing shipment recovery with steady ASP driven by inventory restocking and new model launch. For Apple biz, since Apple now becomes Tongda's largest client (37% of FY23E sales), we expect iPhone 15's casing material upgrade from metal to aluminium/titanium will drive ASP/share gain in 2H23E/2024.
2H23E 展望：安卓系統復甦，蘋果股價上漲，非智能手機訂單樂觀。對於Android業務，mgmt. 預計，在庫存補貨和新機型發佈的推動下，外殼出貨量將恢復穩定。對於蘋果業務而言，由於蘋果現已成爲通達最大的客戶（FY23E 銷售額的37％），我們預計iPhone 15的外殼材料從金屬升級到鋁/鈦將推動23E/2024年下半年的ASP/份額上漲。
In addition, improving product mix (Apple/Android mix of 55%/45% in 2H) will drive GPM improvement. For household and sports goods biz, mgmt. expects better shipment and high margin at 28% in 2H23E backed by order recovery from IKEA/Decathlon and kitchenware stainless steel production.
此外，改善產品組合（下半年蘋果/安卓混合比例爲55％/45％）將推動GPM的改善。對於家居和體育用品行業，mgmt. 預計，在宜家/迪卡儂和廚具不鏽鋼產量恢復的支持下，2H23E 的出貨量將增加，利潤率高達28％。
For network communications biz, mgmt. remains positive on customers' new order wins to drive 30%+ HoH revenue growth in 2H23E.
對於網絡通信業務，管理局對客戶贏得的新訂單持樂觀態度，這將推動HoH在 2H23E 中收入增長30％以上。
Maintain BUY on attractive risk/reward. We lowered FY23/25E revenue by 8-11% to reflect weak 1H23 results but revised up FY23-25E GPM for rising Apple's sales mix. Our new TP of HK$0.17 is based on rolled over 6.0x FY24E P/E. Trading at 4.4x/2.8x FY23/24E P/E (10-year low), we think the stock is extremely attractive. Maintain BUY.
在有吸引力的風險/回報的情況下維持買入。我們將23/25財年的收入下調了8-11％，以反映23年上半年的疲軟業績，但由於蘋果銷售組合的增加，我們上調了 FY23-25E GPM。我們的新目標價爲0.17港元，基於展期6.0倍的 FY24E 市盈率。交易價格爲2.8倍/23/24財年市盈率的4.4倍/2.8倍（10年低點），我們認爲該股極具吸引力。維持買入。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。