In the first half of the year, the company's revenue is relatively sound, its performance is under pressure, and its completion plan may form a certain degree of support for the scale of carry-over for the whole year; the ranking of sales in the first half of the year is the same as that of the first quarter, which is lower than that of the whole year; it is prudent to take the land and plough the high-energy cities with better soil storage quality; it is financially sound, the financing costs are further optimized, the margin of the overall capital chain is declining, and the structure of cash flow is dominated by sales rebates. The operation of holding property is sound, including the high increase in rental income of industrial real estate, and the steady development of Jindi smart service and agent construction business. It is estimated that the EPS from 2023 to 2025 will be 1.30,1.26,1.31 yuan respectively, maintaining the "highly recommended" rating. Considering that the company's high-energy urban projects have entered the launch cycle and are expected to benefit from the improvement of industry competition in the medium and long term, the target price is 9.08yuan per share (corresponding to 2023PE=7X).
In the first half of the year, the company's revenue was relatively solid and its performance was under pressure. In the first half of 2023, the company realized operating income / operating profit / return net profit of 36.9 billion yuan / 3.3 billion yuan / 1.5 billion yuan respectively (compared with the same period last year). 23H1's revenue is relatively solid, and the growth rate of operating profit is lower than operating income: mainly because the company's gross profit margin is 5.6 PCT to 16.6% lower than that of 22H1 (of which the gross profit margin of real estate settlement is 6.3 PCT to 14.9% lower than that of 22H1), investment income is 1.55 billion yuan lower than the same period last year to 710 million yuan, while taxes and surcharges are 920 million yuan to 480 million yuan lower than 22H1, which forms a certain hedging effect. The growth rate of homed net profit is lower than that of operating profit, mainly due to the increase in income tax expenses during the reporting period (23H1 income tax expenses increased by 330 million yuan to 1.05 billion yuan compared with 22H1), while the settlement equity ratio increased (the proportion of 23H1 net profit to net profit increased by 9.0 PCT to 67.0% compared with 22H1).
For the whole year, the adjustment and completion plan may form a certain degree of support for the carry-over scale of the whole year. The China News has revised up the new construction and completion plans for the whole year. According to the report, the company plans to start / complete a new construction area of 4.35 million square meters / 13.53 million square meters respectively for 23 years, an increase of 22.5% and 4.5% respectively over the planned value at the beginning of the year. By the end of June 23, the company's contract liability was 97.1 billion yuan (an increase of 26.4% compared with 76.8 billion yuan by the end of 22), and the guarantee factor for 22-year revenue was 0.81 times (higher than 0.64 times at the end of 22 years), taking into account the abundant impairment of the company's assets in previous years. or form a certain support for the annual performance.
The ranking of sales in the first half was the same as in the first quarter, down from the whole of last year. The company's full-caliber cumulative sales area / amount in the first half of the year was 4.71 million square meters / 85.8 billion yuan respectively (+ 12.4% gamma 14.7% compared with the same period last year), and the corresponding average sales price was 18200 yuan / square meter (- 24.1% compared with the same period last year). According to Carey, the company's 23H1 full-caliber sales ranked 12th in the industry, the same as 23Q1, down 5 places from 22.
Take the land carefully, deeply plough the high-energy cities, and the soil storage quality is better. In the first half of the year, the company added a cumulative total of 850,000 square meters / total land prices of 850,000 square meters / 11.9 billion yuan respectively (compared with the same period last year), and the corresponding average floor price was 14000 yuan per square meter (+ 22 percent compared with the same period last year). The new projects mainly focus on high-energy cities, including Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Xi'an, Dongguan and other cities. The intensity of investment in the first half of the year (full-caliber land acquisition / full-caliber sales) was 13.9%, which was slower than that of the same period last year (17.8%). Under the background of uncertain overall sales in the industry, the company made prudent investment according to the principle of "keeping expenditure within the limits of revenues".
In terms of soil storage, by the end of June 23, the company's total land reserve was about 48.78 million square meters (uncarried-over caliber), and it was estimated that the value of unsold caliber goods was about 560 billion, corresponding to a static removal period of about 2.7 years. The land reserve of rights and interests is about 2194 square meters, of which the first and second lines account for about 73%. The land reserves are relatively abundant and of good quality.
Financial stability, further optimization of financing costs, the marginal decline of the overall capital chain, cash flow structure dominated by sales rebate. As of mid-23, the company's book interest-bearing liabilities were 109.6 billion yuan (4.9% less than at the end of 22), monetary funds were 46.1 billion yuan (15.5% less than at the end of 22 years), the asset-liability ratio deducting accounts in advance was 62.9% (2.4 PCT lower than at the end of 22 years), and the net debt ratio was 53.5% (compared with + 1.3 PCT at the end of 22 years). In terms of term, short-term interest-bearing liabilities accounted for 37.2% (up 1.3 PCT from the end of 22nd); from the source point of view, the proportion of bank borrowing / open market financing / other financing was 70.8%, 29.0% and 0.2% respectively, compared with the source structure at the end of 22 (the proportion of bank borrowing / open market financing / other financing was 61% and 38% respectively), the proportion of open market financing decreased significantly. The comprehensive financing cost is 4.39% (14 BP lower than at the end of 22 years).
In addition, as of mid-23, the company's cash flow: the overall capital chain (total cash inflows in the past four quarters / total outflow in the past four quarters) was 93%. Since the end of 22, the overall capital chain has been less than 100%, and the marginal decline quarter by quarter. It is expected that the future will improve as the policy affects sales improvement. Structurally, the proportion of the company's operating inflow, fund-raising inflow and investment inflow to the total outflow is 75.8%, 18.7% and 5.4% respectively, indicating that the company's cash flow structure is dominated by sales rebates, and the proportion of operating inflows increases.
The operation of holding property is sound, including the high increase in rental income of industrial real estate, and the steady development of Jindi smart service and agent construction business.
Holding property: (1) in terms of commercial property, there were 19 office buildings and commercial projects in the first half of the year, with a rental income of 1.2 billion yuan (+ 16.6% compared with the same period last year) and an average occupancy rate of 73%. (2) in terms of industrial real estate, 36 projects were operated, with a rental income of 1.6 billion yuan (+ 643.9% compared with the same period last year) and an average occupancy rate of 83%. At the same time, the company also expanded its income other than rent, and the photovoltaic pilot project successfully brought the relevant value-added service income to exceed 10 million yuan for the first time. (3) for long-term rental apartments, the average occupancy rate of mature projects is stable at more than 95%.
Jindi Wisdom Service: by the end of June 23, the contract management area of the company reached 370 million square meters (+ 2.2% compared with the same period last year), and the management area reached 220 million square meters (+ 11.9% compared with the same period last year). In the first half of the year, 28 projects in the industrial park won the bid.
Agent construction business: in the first half of the year, Jindi Management added about 3.68 million square meters of contracted management area (including residential / non-residential about 2.04 million square meters / 1.64 million square meters respectively), successfully entered Zhengzhou, Changsha, Baotou, Baoding, Zhongshan, Kunming and other new city markets, and continued ploughing in Tianjin, Shanghai, Xi'an, Dongguan, Wenzhou and other cities. By the end of June 23, the company's agent construction business has been distributed in more than 50 cities and more than 160 management service projects, with a total contracted management area of more than 22 million square meters, including residential contracted area of more than 14 million square meters, and non-residential contracted area of more than 8 million square meters.
Investment advice: the company's revenue in the first half of the year is relatively sound, performance is under pressure, and the completion plan may form a certain degree of support to the scale of carry-over for the whole year; the ranking of sales in the first half is the same as that of the first quarter, which is lower than that of the whole year; it is prudent to take the land, deep ploughing high-energy cities, and the quality of soil storage is better; financial stability, further optimization of financing costs, decline in the margin of the overall capital chain, and sales payback are dominant in the cash flow structure. The holding property management is sound, including the high increase in industrial real estate rental income, and the steady development of Jindi smart service and agent construction business. It is estimated that the EPS from 2023 to 2025 will be 1.30,1.26,1.31 yuan respectively, maintaining the "highly recommended" rating. Considering that the company's high-energy urban projects have entered the launch cycle and are expected to benefit from the improvement of industry competition in the medium and long term, the target price is 9.08yuan per share (corresponding to 2023PE=7X).
Risk tips: sales growth is not as expected, the land is conservative under the influence of the market, settlement is not as expected, gross profit margin changes are not as expected, industry recovery is not as expected as a drag on the company's operation, and so on.