INNOVATION NEW MATERIAL(600361)INITIATION:A LEADING ALUMINUM PROCESSOR POISED TO SEE INCREASE IN VOLUME AND SELLING PRICE
INNOVATION NEW MATERIAL(600361)INITIATION:A LEADING ALUMINUM PROCESSOR POISED TO SEE INCREASE IN VOLUME AND SELLING PRICE
Innovation New Material is a leading domestic aluminum processor that is well-poised to benefit from its rapidly expanding capacity and significantly improving processing fees in the future. We expect its 2023E/24E/25E attributable net profit (ANP) to be Rmb1,273mn/1,431mn/1,608mn, implying EPS forecasts of Rmb0.32/0.36/0.40. We assign 20x 2023E PE, corresponding to a target price of about Rmb6, and initiate coverage with a "BUY" rating.
Innovation New Material是一家領先的國內鋁加工商,它有望從其快速擴張的產能和未來顯著提高的加工費用中受益。我們預計其2023E/24E/25E應占淨利潤(ANP)爲人民幣12.73億元/14.31億元/16.08億元,這意味着每股收益預測爲0.32元/0.36/0.40元人民幣。我們分配20倍的2023年E市盈率,相當於約6元人民幣的目標價,並以 “買入” 評級啓動保險。
The leading domestic aluminum processor improves operating results steadily.
國內領先的鋁加工商穩步改善經營業績。
Innovation New Material ("the Company") is a technology-based enterprise focusing on the research, development, production, and processing of aluminum alloys and products, providing comprehensive solutions in the field of aluminum alloy processing. The Company is currently one of the largest aluminum material producers in China, with an output of 4.22mt in 2022. Its operating revenue increased from Rmb38.12bn in 2019 to Rmb69.32 in 2022, an increase of 81.8%, while its ANP increased from Rmb0.53bn in 2019 to Rmb1.09bn 2022, implying a remarkable increase of 105.1%. In 1Q23, the Company's ANP declined by 31.3%, which was mostly due to macroeconomic factors and downstream customers.
Innovation New Material(“公司”)是一家專注於鋁合金及其產品的研究、開發、生產和加工,在鋁合金加工領域提供全面解決方案的科技型企業。該公司目前是中國最大的鋁材料生產商之一,2022年的產量爲422萬噸。其營業收入從2019年的人民幣381.2億元增至2022年的69.32元人民幣,增長了81.8%,而其ANP則從2019年的53.3億元人民幣增加到2022年的10.9億元人民幣,這意味着顯著增長了105.1%。在23年第一季度,該公司的ANP下降了31.3%,這主要是由於宏觀經濟因素和下游客戶。
The domestic aluminum processing industry will likely continue to grow.
國內鋁加工行業可能會繼續增長。
According to Antaike, the consumption of domestic aluminum alloy bar will likely increase from 27.52mt in 2021 to 30.44mt in 2025, implying a 2.6% CAGR; while that of domestic aluminum extrusion is likely to rise from 20.97mt to 23.30mt, with a CAGR of 2.7%. Among these aluminum material areas, industrial aluminum extrusion will likely see the most significant growth. Driven by the rapid development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry and the trend of light weighting, the total demand for passenger vehicle aluminum extrusion in China may increase from 705kt in 2021 to 1,998kt in 2025, with a CAGR of 29.7%, indicating an obvious growth headroom. Moreover, the use of recycled and green aluminum will become long-term trends.
根據安泰克的數據,國內鋁合金棒的消費量可能會從2021年的2752萬噸增加到2025年的30.44萬噸,這意味着複合年增長率爲2.6%;而國內鋁擠壓的消費量可能從2097萬噸增加到2330萬噸,複合年增長率爲2.7%。在這些鋁材料領域中,工業鋁擠壓可能會出現最顯著的增長。在新能源汽車(NEV)行業的快速發展和輕量化趨勢的推動下,中國乘用車鋁擠壓的總需求可能從2021年的705萬噸增加到2025年的19.98萬噸,複合年增長率爲29.7%,這表明增長空間明顯。此外,使用回收鋁和綠色鋁將成爲長期趨勢。
The production capacity has the advantages of large scale and various locations.
生產能力具有規模大、地點多樣的優勢。
In 2022, the Company's annual output was 4.22mt, including 3.12mt of bars, 502.7kt of strips and foils, 99.8kt of profiles, 497.4kt of aluminum bars and cables and 36.42mn pieces of structural components. The Company continues to vigorously increase the aluminum processing business, in addition to supporting financing projects, there are a number of projects under construction with capacity over 1mt. After the commissioning of the projects, the capacity of the Company's aluminum bars (including recycled aluminum), strip and foil, and profiles are likely to rise by 82.4%, 83.0%, and 118.9% respectively. Originated from Binzhou Shandong, the Company has built production bases in Qingdao Shandong, Suzhou Jiangsu, Wenshan Yunnan, Honghe Yunnan, and Tongliao Inner Mongolia, and the diversified layout helps the Company promote sales and enter into new markets.
2022年,該公司的年產量爲422萬噸,包括312萬噸棒材、50.27萬噸帶材和鋁箔、99.8萬噸型材、497.4萬噸鋁棒和電纜以及3642萬件結構部件。該公司繼續大力增加鋁加工業務,除了支持融資項目外,還有許多項目正在建設中,產能超過100萬噸。項目投產後,該公司的鋁棒(包括再生鋁)、帶材和鋁箔以及型材的產能可能分別增長82.4%、83.0%和118.9%。公司起源於山東濱州,先後在山東青島、江蘇蘇州、雲南文山、雲南紅河和內蒙古通遼建立了生產基地,多元化的佈局有助於公司促進銷售和開拓新市場。
The processing fees continue to rise thanks to product structure optimization.
由於產品結構優化,手續費持續上漲。
Product structure upgrading is a necessary step for aluminum processing companies to achieve high returns. The Company's bar products enter into areas including consumer electronics, automobiles, new energy, etc. Its strip and foil products expand to areas including high-end decoration, home appliances and furniture, food packaging and so on, while the profile products adopt differentiated strategies and focus on consumer electronics and automobiles. Consequently, its overall processing fee continued to rise. In 2019-21, the average processing fees of the Company's bar, strip and foil, and profile products increased by 18.9%, 15.5%, and 84.7% respectively. With the continuous improvement of product structure, the Company's profitability will likely to increase.
產品結構升級是鋁加工企業實現高回報的必要步驟。公司的棒材產品涉足消費電子、汽車、新能源等領域,其帶材和鋁箔產品擴展到高端裝飾、家用電器和傢俱、食品包裝等領域,而型材產品則採用差異化策略,專注於消費電子和汽車。因此,其總手續費繼續上漲。在2019-21年度,公司棒材、帶材和鋁箔以及型材產品的平均加工費分別增長了18.9%、15.5%和84.7%。隨着產品結構的持續改善,公司的盈利能力可能會提高。
The first-class customer resources could help with the Company's expansion into the automobile sector.
一流的客戶資源可以幫助公司向汽車行業擴張。
The Company has established stable relationships with a number of leading companies in the downstream aluminum processing and terminal industries. It has become a key part of Apple's aluminum supply chain, and has entered its core supplier list for three consecutive years since 2018. In the process of cooperation with Apple, the Company's custom design, quality control and supply chain management capabilities have been continuously improved. The abundant reserve in technology and experience in supply chain management are likely to boost the Company's presence buildup and development in the automotive field.
該公司已與下游鋁加工和終端行業的多家領先公司建立了穩定的關係。它已成爲蘋果鋁供應鏈的重要組成部分,自2018年以來已連續三年進入其核心供應商名單。在與蘋果合作的過程中,該公司的定製設計、質量控制和供應鏈管理能力不斷提高。供應鏈管理方面的豐富技術和經驗儲備可能會促進公司在汽車領域的影響力積累和發展。
The Company boasts the advantage of green materials.
該公司擁有綠色材料的優勢。
In response to Weiqiao's capacity transferring, the Company raised capital to build a 1.2mt/a recycled aluminum project in Yunnan. Moreover, benefiting from Yunnan's abundant hydropower resources, the Company's footprint in Yunnan will help increase its share of green aluminum alloy products and reduce its energy costs. In addition, based on the Company's announcement, it plans to increase its recycled aluminum capacity to 2.05mt/a by 2025. The Company is in the leading position in terms of recycled aluminum upgrading.The construction of recycled aluminum projects will help the Company meet its raw material demand and enhance its profit margin in the future.
爲了應對魏橋的產能轉移,公司籌集了資金,在雲南建設了一個120萬噸/年的再生鋁項目。此外,得益於雲南豐富的水電資源,該公司在雲南的足跡將有助於增加其綠色鋁合金產品的份額並降低其能源成本。此外,根據該公司的公告,該公司計劃到2025年將其再生鋁產能提高到205萬噸/年。該公司在再生鋁升級方面處於領先地位。再生鋁項目的建設將有助於公司滿足其原材料需求並提高其未來的利潤率。
Potential risks: The capacity expansion not up to expectations; more-than-expected industry competition; fluctuations in energy and raw material prices; higher-than-expected accounts payable turnover ratio; capacity relocation by the Company's suppliers
潛在風險:產能擴張未達到預期;行業競爭超出預期;能源和原材料價格波動;應付賬款週轉率高於預期;公司供應商的產能調整
Investment strategy: Innovation New Material is a leading domestic aluminum processor with aluminum alloy bar capacity ranking first both at home and abroad, and it is well-poised to benefit from its rapidly expanding capacity and significantly improving processing fees in the future. We expect the Company's 2023E/24E/25E ANP to be Rmb1,273mn/1,431mn/1,608mn, implying EPS forecasts of Rmb0.32/0.36/0.40. Considering the average valuation level of 19.7x 2023E PE (Wind consensus estimates) for comparable companies including Furong Technology (603327.SH), Lizhong Group (300428.SZ), Haomei New Materials (002988.SZ) and Yongmaotai Automotive (605208.SH), we assign 20x 2023E PE, corresponding to a target price of about Rmb6, and initiate coverage with a "BUY" rating.
投資策略:Innovation New Material是國內領先的鋁加工商,其鋁合金棒材產能在國內外均排名第一,它有望從其快速擴張的產能和顯著提高的加工費用中受益。我們預計該公司2023年E/24E/25E/25E的年度收益爲人民幣12.73億元/14.31億元/16.08億元,這意味着每股收益預測爲0.32元/0.36/0.40元人民幣。考慮到包括芙蓉科技(603327.SH)、立中集團(300428.SZ)、豪美新材(002988.SZ)和永茂泰汽車(605208.SH)在內的同類公司的平均估值水平爲2023年E市盈率(風能共識估值)的19.7倍,對應於約6元人民幣的目標價,並以 “買入” 評級啓動保險。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。