SHOUGANG FUSHAN RESOURCES(00639.HK):1H23 RESULTS RESILIENT; CLEAN COKING COAL STRATEGY PAYS OFF
SHOUGANG FUSHAN RESOURCES(00639.HK):1H23 RESULTS RESILIENT; CLEAN COKING COAL STRATEGY PAYS OFF
1H23 results beat our expectations Shougang Fushan Resources announced its 1H23 results: Revenue fell 26.2% YoY to HK$3.44bn and net profit attributable to shareholders declined 23.3% YoY to HK$1.23bn (or HK$0.24/sh), beating our expectations, mainly thanks to smaller-than-expected decline in coking coal prices and higher-than-expected clean coking coal washing rate.
23年上半年業績超出我們的預期，首鋼富山資源公佈了其23年上半年業績：收入同比下降26.2％，至34.4億港元，股東應占淨利潤同比下降23.3％，至12.3億港元（合0.24港元），超出我們的預期，這主要是由於煉焦煤價格跌幅小於預期以及清潔煉焦煤洗煤率高於預期。
Clean coking coal output and washing rate increased. In 1H23, output of raw coking coal fell 1.5% YoY to 2.66mnt, while that of clean coking coal rose 6.9% YoY to 1.86mnt. Raw coking coal output accounted for 51% of the annual approved capacity, and the firm had 100% of its raw coal washed. The clean coking coal washing rate rose 5.5ppt YoY to 69.9%.
清潔煉焦煤產量和洗選率均有所提高。23年上半年，未加工的煉焦煤產量同比下降1.5％，至266萬噸，而清潔煉焦煤的產量同比增長6.9％，至186萬億噸。未加工的煉焦煤產量佔年度批准產能的51％，該公司100％的原煤經過了沖洗。清潔煉焦煤洗煤率同比上漲5.5個百分點至69.9％。
Sales volume of clean coking coal rose 2.9% YoY to 1.79mnt.
清潔煉焦煤銷量同比增長2.9％，至179萬噸。
Coal ASP declined. In 1H23, the ASP of clean coking coal fell 22% or Rmb548/t YoY to Rmb1,973/t (tax inclusive), and that of Liulin No.4 and No.9 coking coal fell 29% and 33% YoY. Thanks to long-term coal contracts that previously secured coal prices, the firm saw smaller selling price declines than the market. The proportion of No.1 clean coking coal in total sales volume fell 3ppt YoY to 24%.
煤炭ASP下跌。23年上半年，清潔煉焦煤的ASP同比下降22％，至1,973元人民幣（含稅），同比下降22％，至1,973元人民幣（含稅），柳林四號和九號煉焦煤的每股同比下降29％和33％。得益於此前保障煤炭價格的長期煤炭合同，該公司的售價跌幅小於市場。排名第一的清潔煉焦煤佔總銷量的比例同比下降3個百分點至24％。
Per-tonne cost fell. In 1H23, the production cost of raw coking coal fell 4.3% or Rmb18/t YoY to Rmb400/t, with cash cost down Rmb18/t YoY to Rmb326/t, as uncontrollable costs (e.g., resource tax) fell Rmb20/t YoY to Rmb90/t. Excluding these costs, the firm's cash cost rose Rmb2/t YoY to Rmb236/t.
每噸成本下降。23年上半年，未加工煉焦煤的生產成本同比下降4.3％，至人民幣400元/噸，現金成本同比下降18元人民幣/噸，至326元人民幣，原因是無法控制的成本（例如資源稅）同比下降20元人民幣/噸至90元人民幣。不包括這些成本，該公司的現金成本同比上漲2元/噸至236元人民幣。
Interest income rose HK$37.12mn YoY to HK$83.75mn in 1H23 amid rising market interest rates. Net operating cash inflow rose HK$841mn YoY to HK$2.72bn in 1H23. As of 1H23, the firm had about HK$9.42bn of free cash resources (or HK$8bn excluding HK$1.42bn of cash used to pay the 2022 final dividend).
由於市場利率上升，23年上半年利息收入同比增長3,712萬港元至8,375萬港元。23年上半年淨運營現金流入同比增長8.41億港元，至27.2億港元。截至23年上半年，該公司擁有約94.2億港元的自由現金資源（80億港元，不包括用於支付2022年末期股息的14.2億港元現金）。
The firm plans to pay an interim dividend of HK$0.10 (vs. interim dividend of HK$0.15 in 1H22), implying a dividend payout ratio of 41% and an interim dividend yield of 4.42% at the current share price.
該公司計劃派發0.10港元的中期股息（而2022年上半年的中期股息爲0.15港元），這意味着按當前股價計算，股息支付率爲41％，中期股息收益率爲4.42％。
Trends to watch Coal output to decline in 2H23; foresee ASP support. We expect the firm's coal output to decline in 2H23 as it shifts Xingwu Coal Mine fro upper to lower coal seams. Since July, the ASP of Liulin No.4 and No.9 coking coal have fallen 7% and 6% from 1H23 to Rmb1,944/t and Rmb1,738/t. The prices only saw moderate declines, mainly because hot metal output remained relatively high, and coking plants and steelmakers replenished inventories as needed. Looking ahead, we think it still takes time for downstream demand to improve, leading to limited growth in demand for coking coal.
預計23年下半年煤炭產量將下降的趨勢；預計ASP將獲得支撐。我們預計，隨着興武煤礦從上層向下煤層轉移，該公司的煤炭產量將在23年下半年下降。自7月以來，柳林四號和九號煉焦煤的每股價從23年上半年下降了7％和6％，至1,944元人民幣和1,738/噸人民幣。價格僅略有下降，主要是因爲鐵水產量仍然相對較高，煉焦廠和鋼鐵製造商根據需要補充庫存。展望未來，我們認爲下游需求的改善仍需要時間，導致煉焦煤需求增長有限。
However, we think the supply of high-quality coking coal has remained tight. The output of clean coking coal edged up 0.5% YoY over January- July and the imports of Australia's coking coal were only 1.19mnt over the same period (vs. 28.59mnt in the same period in 2020). In addition, the costs of coking coal imports were higher than that of domestic coking coal purchases. We think high-quality coking coal still has price support.
但是，我們認爲高質量煉焦煤的供應仍然緊張。1月至7月，清潔煉焦煤的產量同比小幅增長0.5％，同期澳大利亞煉焦煤的進口量僅爲119萬億（而2020年同期爲28.59萬噸）。此外，煉焦煤進口的成本高於國內煉焦煤的購買成本。我們認爲高質量的煉焦煤仍有價格支撐。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
Due to changes in price assumptions, we raise our 2023 and 2024 EPS forecasts 11% and 14% to HK$0.38 and HK$0.37. The stock is trading at 6.0x 2023e and 6.1x 2024e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM and raise our target price 12.5% to HK$2.70, implying 7.2x 2023e and 7.3x 2024e P/E, offering 19.5% upside.
由於價格假設的變化，我們將2023年和2024年的每股收益預測上調了11％和14％，至0.38港元和0.37港元。該股的交易價格爲2023年每股6.0倍和2024年市盈率的6.1倍。我們維持跑贏大盤，並將目標價上調12.5％至2.70港元，這意味着2023年e的7.2倍和2024年市盈率的7.3倍，上漲幅度爲19.5％。
Risks
風險
Disappointing recovery in downstream demand; sharper-than-expected increase in supply.
下游需求復甦令人失望；供應增長幅度大於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。