Event: Guangdong Electric Power A released the 2023 interim report. During the reporting period, the company achieved a total operating income of 28.341 billion yuan, year-on-year + 25.34%, return to the parent net profit of 857 million yuan, year-on-year return to profit, 2023Q2 company revenue of 15.295 billion yuan, year-on-year + 36.29%, quarter-on-quarter gross profit of 14.34%, month-on-month + 6.76pct, year-on-year + 18.58pct. Combined with operating data, comments are as follows:
Thermal power: the load cost is repaired, and the return profit of 2023H1 coal power is restored to 0.005 yuan. In terms of electricity, the online electricity of 2023H1 Company was 534.81 billion kWh, + 15.36% compared with the same period last year, including 421.46 billion kWh of coal power, + 13.13% Yon-on-year, 8.4 billion kWh of gas power, + 28.73% Permian 2023Q2 provincial power load repair as the core factor. In the current quarter, the company's coal power generation reached 236.73 billion kWh. On the cost side, thanks to the decline in imported coal volume and domestic coal prices, the company's variable cost pressure was alleviated. The fuel cost of 2023H1 Company totaled 19.794 billion yuan, + 8.86% compared with the same period last year, and the fuel cost of thermal power (including biomass) was 0.389 yuan,-5.58% compared with the same period last year, driving coal power to achieve a net profit of 207 million yuan, and power generation to achieve a net profit of 0.005 yuan. The net profit of gas and electricity is 254 million yuan, and the net profit of kilowatt-hour electricity is 0.03 yuan.
Green Power: the performance of Green Power fell slightly by 6.6%, and the projects under construction and reserve reached 4.42 and 11.80GW respectively. At present, the company's green power is mainly wind power, and the installed capacity of sea wind and land wind is 1.2 and 1.15GW respectively. The grid power of wind power reached 2.494 billion kilowatt-hours in the first half of the year, which was + 17.24% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the total net profit of green power plate was 301 million yuan, which was-6.6% of the same period last year. The speed of project expansion is still the driving force for the growth of the company, including sea breeze, photovoltaic and other total 4.42GW, record, approval of the project total 11.80GW, to ensure the growth rate of the company's green power business.
Investment income: Guoneng Yudian Taishan Power Plant contributes the main momentum of investment income growth. The total investment income of the joint venture enterprises in the first half of the year was 518 million yuan, + 3.91% compared with the same period last year. The investment income of this part of the company is mainly Shanxi Yue Dian Energy (Coal and Power Integrated Operation Company) and Guoneng Guangdong Radio Station Mountain, both of which are coal and power joint venture companies, with 2023H1 net profits of 6.41 yuan and 552 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year.
Investment advice: maintain the "overweight" rating. The company's fundamentals have both cycle bottom and growth characteristics, in which coal power business, as the main carrier of performance, is expected to significantly benefit from triple repair factors such as coal price shock downward trend, imported coal quantity repair, Guangdong power load repair and so on. release higher performance elasticity, and thermal power and green power companies have higher installed growth. The net profit forecast of our company from 2023 to 2025 is 28.03,40.03 and 5.132 billion yuan respectively, turning losses into profits, + 42.8% and + 28.2% respectively, corresponding to the closing price PE valuation of 12.0x, 8.4x and 6.5x on September 4, respectively.
Risk hints: thermal coal prices rise sharply, market-oriented transactions lead to electricity price fluctuation risk, macroeconomic risk, coal import fluctuation.