CHINA MEIDONG AUTO(1268.HK):THE WORST IS OVER
CHINA MEIDONG AUTO(1268.HK):THE WORST IS OVER
Upgrade to BUY. Meidong's share price has fallen 65% since our downgrade on 1 Apr 2023. We are of the view that its new-car gross margin probably hit bottom in 1H23, although recovery may take a while. Porsche's new-car gross margin appears to recover the fastest among traditional luxury brands and Meidong could benefit the most among its peers. In our view, the company may buy back some of its convertible bonds to lower its debts, as it distributed earnings from its onshore subsidiaries to offshore. That could be a positive catalyst for the share price.
升級到 “購買”。自2023年4月1日我們下調評級以來，美東的股價已經下跌了65％。我們認爲，儘管復甦可能需要一段時間，但其新車毛利率可能會在23年上半年觸底。保時捷的新車毛利率似乎是傳統奢侈品牌中恢復得最快的，而美東在同行中受益最大。我們認爲，該公司可能會回購部分可轉換債券以降低債務，因爲它將其在岸子公司的收益分配給了離岸。這可能是股價的積極催化劑。
1H23 earnings miss on new-car GPM. Meidong's 1H23 revenue and SG&A expenses were largely in line with our prior forecast, whereas the largest surprise came from its 0.2% new-car gross margin (vs. our 2.2%). We attribute such miss partially to the company's strategy to sacrifice profit in order to keep a healthy balance sheet. While it is difficult to find a balance between profit and survival risk during the downturn period, Meidong chooses to prioritize its survival and be prepared for potential M&A opportunities with handy resources when industry environment resumes normal.
2023年上半年新車GPM的收益低於預期。美東23年上半年的收入和銷售及收購支出基本符合我們之前的預測，而最大的驚喜來自其0.2％的新車毛利率（而我們的2.2％）。我們將這種失誤部分歸因於該公司爲了保持健康的資產負債表而犧牲利潤的策略。儘管在經濟低迷時期，很難在利潤和生存風險之間找到平衡，但美東選擇優先考慮生存，並在行業環境恢復正常時利用便捷的資源爲潛在的併購機會做好準備。
Commission income in 1H23 was also below our expectation, partly due to its different accounting policies compared with its peers. Excluding non-operating items (amortization, impairment, withholding tax etc.), adjusted net profit in 1H23 was RMB 254mn, still about RMB 100mn lower than our adjusted estimates.
23年上半年的佣金收入也低於我們的預期，部分原因是其會計政策與同行不同。不包括營業外項目（攤銷、減值、預扣稅等），23年上半年調整後的淨利潤爲2.54億元人民幣，仍比我們調整後的預期低約1億元人民幣。
Industry headwinds could be priced in, as new-car gross margin likely hit bottom. We project Porsche's new-car gross margin at Meidong to widen to 3% in 2H23E and 3.5% in FY24E, given Porsche's decision to cut sales target in China. Meidong's net profit could lift by about RMB 80mn with every 1 ppt increase of Porsche's new-car gross margin. Accordingly, we project net profit of RMB 300mn for 2H23E and RMB 749mn for FY24E.
由於新車毛利率可能觸底，行業的不利因素可能會被定價。鑑於保時捷決定下調在中國的銷售目標，我們預計保時捷在美東的新車毛利率將在 2H23E 中擴大至3％，在 FY24E 中將擴大至3.5％。保時捷新車毛利率每增加一個百分點，美東的淨利潤就可能增加約8000萬元人民幣。因此，我們預計 2H23E 的淨利潤爲3億元人民幣，FY24E 的淨利潤爲7.49億元人民幣。
We also project the company to turn to the net cash position at the end of FY23E, with more-than-enough cash to repay its convertible bonds in 2025.
我們還預計該公司將在 FY23E 結束時轉向淨現金狀況，有足夠的現金在 2025 年償還其可轉換債券。
Valuation/Key risks. Our new target price of HK$ 7.20 (cut from HK$ 11.00) is based on 12x (previously 13x) our revised FY24E EPS, as the valuation premium from its management could narrow during tough times. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales and/or margins than our expectation, as well as a sector de-rating.
估值/關鍵風險。我們的新目標價爲7.20港元（從11.00港元下調），基於我們修訂後的 FY24E 每股收益的12倍（之前爲13倍），因爲在艱難時期，其管理層的估值溢價可能會縮小。我們的評級和目標價格面臨的主要風險包括銷售額和/或利潤率低於我們的預期，以及行業評級下調。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。