SHANDONG HI-SPEED(600350):1H23 RESULTS IN LINE; DIVIDEND YIELD ATTRACTIVE
SHANDONG HI-SPEED(600350):1H23 RESULTS IN LINE; DIVIDEND YIELD ATTRACTIVE
1H23 results in line with our expectations
2023 年上半年的業績符合我們的預期
Shandong Hi-speed announced its 1H23 results. Revenue rose 20.9% YoY to Rmb9.71bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose 14.8% YoY to Rmb1.77bn, in line with our expectations. In 2Q23, revenue increased 18.3% YoY to Rmb5.29bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders grew 16.4% YoY to Rmb957mn.
山東高速公佈了其上半年業績。收入同比增長20.9％，至97.1億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比增長14.8％，至人民幣17.7億元，符合我們的預期。23年第二季度，收入同比增長18.3％，至人民幣52.9億元，歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比增長16.4％，至人民幣9.57億元。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Renovation and expansion of road assets boost toll revenue;
道路資產的改造和擴建增加了通行費收入；
investment income grows steadily. By segment: 1) Road and bridge operation: Toll revenue rose 8.7% YoY to Rmb5.19bn in 1H23.
投資收入穩步增長。按細分市場劃分：1) 公路和橋樑運營：23年上半年通行費收入同比增長8.7％，至51.9億元人民幣。
Specifically, toll revenue from Jiqing Expressway (a core road asset of the firm) increased 3.2% YoY and fell 1.7% vs. 1H21 to Rmb1.74bn. Toll revenue from Jingtai Expressway rose 43.3% YoY to Rmb1.06bn in 1H23, mainly thanks to the expansion and opening of the Jinan-Tai'an section.
具體而言，濟青高速公路（公司的核心道路資產）的通行費收入同比增長3.2％，較上半年下降1.7％，至人民幣17.4億元。京泰高速公路的通行費收入同比增長43.3％，至人民幣10.6億元，這主要歸功於濟南-泰安段的擴建和開放。
2) Investment income: In 1H23, investment income rose 7.0% YoY to Rmb648mn. The steady growth in investment income was attributable to the disposal of its real estate business last year and the steady progress of financial investments.
2) 投資收益：23年上半年，投資收益同比增長7.0％，至人民幣6.48億元。投資收入的穩定增長歸因於去年出售其房地產業務以及金融投資的穩步進展。
3) Rail transit service: In 1H23, revenue increased 11.5% YoY to Rmb2.34bn, and attributable net profit grew 4.7% YoY to Rmb182mn, with railway freight volume up 14.2% YoY, outpacing the national and industry average by 7.4ppt and 7.1ppt.
3) 軌道交通服務：23年上半年，收入同比增長11.5％，至23.4億元人民幣，應占淨利潤同比增長4.7％，至人民幣1.82億元，鐵路貨運量同比增長14.2％，超過全國和行業平均水平7.4個百分點和7.1個百分點。
Over the medium-to-long term, renovation and expansion of road assets could boost growth as they gradually come into operation. The firm improved capacity and had raised the standards for toll collection over the past few years via the renovation and expansion of its core road assets, including Jiqing Expressway, and the Dezhou-Qihe section and Jinan-Tai'an section of Jingtai Expressway, underpinning the growth momentum of its main business.
從中長期來看，隨着道路資產的逐步投入運營，翻新和擴建可以促進增長。在過去的幾年中，該公司通過改造和擴建其核心道路資產，包括濟青高速公路、京泰高速的德州至齊河段和濟南-泰安段，提高了運力並提高了收費標準，這支撐了其主營業務的增長勢頭。
Looking ahead, according to the firm's announcement, the Qihe-Jinan section of Jingtai Expressway and Jihe Expressway (controlled by Qilu Expressway) are undergoing renovation and expansion, and related work is scheduled to be completed in 2026 and 2024, respectively. Considering the firm focuses on the Shandong market, which has a strong local economy, and taking into account the advantageous locations of the road assets controlled by the firm, we believe the road assets under expansion and renovation will, after commencing operation, give a further boost to Shangdong Hi-speed's toll revenue growth.
展望未來，根據該公司的公告，京泰高速的齊河至濟南段和濟和高速公路（由齊魯高速控制）正在進行改造和擴建，相關工程計劃分別於2026年和2024年完工。考慮到該公司專注於當地經濟強勁的山東市場，並考慮到該公司控制的道路資產的優越位置，我們認爲正在擴建和翻新的道路資產在開始運營後將進一步推動山東高速的通行費收入增長。
Dividend policy stable; dividend yield attractive. According to the firm's previous announcement, its dividend payout ratio should be no lower than 60% over 2020-2024. The firm's DPS did not decline even if its earnings came under pressure over 2020-2022 affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We believe the firm's prudent dividend policy may effectively ensure absolute returns for investors. According to our calculation, the current share price implies a dividend yield of 7.3% and 7.8% in 2023 and 2024, highlighting its characteristic as a defensive stock.
股息政策穩定；股息收益率有吸引力。根據該公司先前的公告，其股息支付率在2020-2024年期間應不低於60％。儘管受到 COVID-19 疫情的影響，該公司的收益在2020-2022年期間承受壓力，但其每股收益仍未下降。我們認爲，該公司謹慎的股息政策可以有效地確保投資者的絕對回報。根據我們的計算，當前股價意味着2023年和2024年的股息收益率爲7.3％和7.8％，這凸顯了其作爲防禦性股票的特徵。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We maintain our 2023 and 2024 earnings forecasts. The stock is trading at 9.2x 2023e and 8.7x 2024e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of Rmb8.07, implying 11.1x 2023e and 10.4x 2024e P/E, and offering 19.7% upside.
我們維持2023年和2024年的收益預測。該股的交易價格爲2023年度的9.2倍和2024年市盈率的8.7倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，目標價爲8.07元人民幣，這意味着2023年爲11.1倍，2024年市盈率爲10.4倍，上行空間爲19.7％。
Risks
風險
Disappointing progress of the renovation and expansion projects; slower- than-expected economic growth.
翻新和擴建項目的進展令人失望；經濟增長低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。