上半年开店积极，人员费用增加影响利润。公司二季度实现营业收入6.26 亿元，同比增加2.36%；归母净利0.57 亿元，同比下降30.60%，扣非净利0.52 亿元，同比下降34.17%。二季度利润端承压，主要原因为销售费用率同比上升3.4 个百分点。上半年销售费用率增加较多的项目为人工成本，同比增加约3200 万元。我们预计主要原因为上半年公司加快开店节奏，而公司旺季主要体现在三季度。上半年新增门店贡献收入较少，而人员开支有所增加。截至2023 年年中，公司门店数量为762 家（2022 年底为741 家，净增加21 家门店）。Incidents:
On August 28, 2023, the company issued an investor relations record announcement to interpret the results of the interim report. According to the previously published semi-annual report for 2023, the company's revenue for the first half of the year was 1,073 million yuan, an increase of 2.52% over the previous year, and net profit for the second half of the year was 48 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.63%.
Key points of investment:
Stores were actively opened in the first half of the year, and increased personnel expenses affected profits. The company achieved operating income of 626 million yuan in the second quarter, an increase of 2.36% over the previous year; net profit of 57 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.60%, after deducting non-net profit of 52 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.17%. The profit side was under pressure in the second quarter, mainly due to a 3.4 percentage point increase in the sales expenses ratio over the same period last year. The biggest increase in sales expenses in the first half of the year was labor costs, which increased by about 32 million yuan over the previous year. We expect the main reason is that the company accelerated the pace of opening stores in the first half of the year, while the company's peak season was mainly reflected in the third quarter. New stores contributed less revenue in the first half of the year, while staff expenses increased. As of mid-2023, the number of company stores was 762 (741 at the end of 2022, a net increase of 21 stores).
The growth rate of cakes continues to be affected by leap months, and Chinese and Western confectionery continues to grow. By product, the company's cake revenue in the first half of the year was 496 million yuan, an increase of 1.37% over the previous year; the revenue of Chinese and Western pastries was 513 million yuan, an increase of 3.27% over the previous year. Among them, the growth rate of cakes and Chinese and Western pastries in the second quarter was basically the same at +4.00%, respectively. Also, since leap February this year affected birthday cake product sales in March and April, the cake growth rate in the second quarter was affected. We expect to enter May, and the company's cake growth rate will pick up somewhat. Also, this year's Dragon Boat Festival is close to mid-late June, which may cause the company's zongzi revenue recognition portion to move to the third quarter, and accounts receivable at the end of the second quarter increased by about 05 billion yuan month-on-month. The company's cash flow performance was steady. Cash flow from operating activities increased by 5.65% in the first half of the year.
The off-season has little impact on the whole year, so I'm optimistic about this year's Mid-Autumn Festival peak season performance. Judging from the company's historical financial data, the third quarter accounted for a large proportion of annual revenue and profit. In particular, 2022 was extreme. Q3 net profit accounted for 89% of the year's net profit. The peak season of Mid-Autumn Festival is critical to the company's annual performance. The company had a net increase in stores in the first half of this year, and early opening of stores had a certain effect on Mid-Autumn Festival sales. At the same time, the company was greatly affected by the epidemic during the Mid-Autumn Festival season last year, and is expected to resume double-digit growth this year.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Due to slight profit pressure in the second quarter, we lowered the company's profit forecast. We expect the company's EPS from 2023 to 2025 to be 1.34/1.5/1.68 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 13/12/11X, respectively. Since the company's core competitiveness has not changed, we maintain our “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: 1) Food safety issues; 2) Store opening conditions did not meet expectations, and single-store efficiency growth was not obvious; 3) Competition intensified, and fee rates increased due to increased card and voucher discounts; 4) Seasonal fluctuations in card voucher withdrawal gift boxes were still severe, leading to large fluctuations in market expectations for a short period of time; 5) Online growth slowed down.