Main points of investment:
Q2 revenue performance is in line with expectations. In 2023, H1, the company realized operating income of 2.88 billion yuan, an increase of 2.72% over the same period last year, a net profit of 261 million yuan, an increase of 8.12% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 245 million yuan, an increase of 7.51% over the same period last year. Q2 achieved revenue of 1.685 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 0.36% over the same period last year, and realized a net profit of 169 million yuan, an increase of 4.32% The net profit after deducting non-return is 164 million yuan, an increase of 6.55% over the same period last year. The overall income and performance are in line with our expectations in the previous performance forecast.
The resilience of the industry is highlighted, and the company develops in parallel through multiple channels. According to the total data of AVC, in the first half of 2023, the retail sales of large household appliances (smoke, stove, consumer, wash, inlay, set, electricity, fuel and net) totaled 78.9 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8% over the same period last year. Among them, tobacco stoves totaled 23.15 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5% over the same period last year, and electric combustion totaled 23.69 billion yuan, an increase of 6.0% over the same period last year. At the company level, from a channel-by-channel point of view, the company continues to promote the construction of new retail channel layout, continuously improve the store occupancy rate of new retail platforms such as JD.com stores, SUNING retail cloud and Wuxing Wanzhentong, and expand the market share of cities below the third and fourth tier. 23H1 offline channels achieved revenue of 1.312 billion yuan, + 9.04% year-on-year. In terms of online channels, the company has gradually increased the proportion of high-end products, making full use of emerging marketing channels such as Douyin, Kuaishou Technology, Xiaohongshu, etc., to accurately anchor brand target customers and improve traffic conversion rate. According to AVC's online market monthly monitoring data, the proportion of the company's online kitchen category in April-June 23 is 15.4% 14.9% and 16.5% respectively. Topped the list of online sales for three months in a row. In terms of engineering channels, while strictly controlling the risks of engineering business, the company continues to promote the expansion of strategic customers, strengthen the development of weak areas, strengthen the balanced development of regions, and promote the quality of engineering business.
The net interest rate of 23H1 has improved. According to the company report, 23H1 achieved a sales gross profit margin of 41.35%, year-on-year-0.48pct, and in terms of period expenses, the company's 23H1 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 23.27%, 4.55%, 4.18%, 0.17% and-0.51pct/+0.58pct/-0.41pct/+0.16pct, respectively, and finally recorded a net 23H1 sales profit margin of 9.11%, year-on-year + 0.30pct.
Maintain the "overweight" investment rating. Taking into account the relatively low housing start-up and sales data since the beginning of this year, we have lowered our previous profit forecast for the year 2023-2024 (the previous value is 570,000,000 yuan), and added the 2025 profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit of home ownership will be 5.31 billion yuan, an increase of 270.9%, 10.1% and 8.5%, respectively, corresponding to the current P / E ratio of 9 / 9 / 8. The company still has advantages in traditional kitchen and electrical products such as tobacco stoves and stoves, and the emerging categories represented by integrated cookers and integrated cooking centers are expected to contribute to income increment, the overall business performance remains robust, and the investment rating of "increasing holdings" is maintained.
Risk hints: real estate policy fluctuation risk; raw material price fluctuation risk.