TK GROUP(2283.HK):1H23 WEAKNESS AMID INDUSTRY HEADWINDS;POSITIVE ON MARGIN RECOVERY IN 2H23/FY24E
TK GROUP(2283.HK):1H23 WEAKNESS AMID INDUSTRY HEADWINDS;POSITIVE ON MARGIN RECOVERY IN 2H23/FY24E
TK posted 1H23 revenue/NP decline of 12%/6% YoY, mainly due to demand weakness across segments (except automotive), partly offset by improved GPM to 23.3% (vs. 18.7% in 1H22) on easing cost pressure and enhanced efficiency.
東江公佈23年上半年收入/淨收入同比下降12％/6％，這主要是由於各細分市場（汽車除外）的需求疲軟，但由於成本壓力緩解和效率提高，GPM提高至23.3％（上半年爲18.7％），部分抵消了這一下降。
Looking ahead, mgmt. is positive on new client orders, capacity ramp-up in Shenzhen/Vietnam/Huizhou plants and business opportunities in automotive/ medical device/e-cigarette. Following a weak 2023, we expect net profit to grow 33%/16% YoY in FY24/25E, backed by order wins from VR/e-cigarette/medical device, GPM recovery and better cost control. We adjusted TP to HK$3.09 based on same 8.2x FY24E P/E. Trading at 3.5x FY24E P/E with 17% FY22- 25E EPS CAGR and 9% dividend yield, we think the stock is attractive. Maintain BUY.
展望未來，mgmt. 對新客戶訂單、深圳/越南/惠州工廠產能增加以及汽車/醫療器械/電子煙領域的商機持樂觀態度。在經歷了疲軟的2023年之後，我們預計24/25財年的淨利潤將同比增長33％/16％，這得益於虛擬現實/電子煙/醫療器械贏得的訂單、GPM的恢復和更好的成本控制。我們將目標價調整爲3.09港元，基於8.2倍的 FY24E 市盈率。交易價格爲3.5倍 FY24E 市盈率，2022-25財年每股收益複合年增長率爲17％，股息收益率爲9％，我們認爲該股具有吸引力。維持買入。
1H23 weakness well expected dragged by weak consumer electronics /communications demand. 1H23 revenue/net income dropped 11.7%/ 6.4% YoY, largely in-line with earlier guidance. By segment, 1) mobile & wearable (Apple, Otterbox, Jabra) dropped 24% YoY, 2) communications (Polycom) dropped 31% YoY, 3) smart home (Google, Amazon) dropped 39% YoY, 4) medical device dropped 18% YoY, 5) automobile segment grew 21% YoY, and 6) other products segment revenue grew 41% YoY driven by 93% YoY growth of e-cigarette product. Projects-on-hand in 1H23 amounted to HK$ 858.1mn (+5% YoY). Weakness in communications was mainly due to product call-back of key customer, while automotive segment benefited from easing shortage of automotive supply chain.
受消費電子/通信需求疲軟拖累，預計上半年疲軟。上半年收入/淨收入同比下降11.7％/6.4％，基本符合先前的預期。按細分市場劃分，1）移動和可穿戴設備（蘋果、Otterbox、Jabra）同比下降24％，2）通信（寶利通）同比下降31％，3）智能家居（谷歌、亞馬遜）同比下降39％，4）醫療器械同比下降18％，5）汽車板塊同比增長21％，6）其他產品板塊收入同比增長41％，這得益於電子煙產品同比增長93％。23年上半年的現有項目爲8.581億港元（同比增長5％）。溝通疲軟主要是由於主要客戶的產品回調，而汽車行業則受益於汽車供應鏈短缺的緩解。
2H23/2024 Outlook: earnings growth set to resume backed by order wins, capacity ramp-up and cost control. Backed by new order wins in VR/medical device/e-cigarette/automotive, we expect TK to enjoy utilization recovery in 2H23/FY24E for its Huizhou & Vietnam plants. TK implemented stricter cost control measures in FY22/23, resulting in improving operating efficiency and cost savings. We expect TK's revenue/net profit to post -9% /+7% YoY backed by higher GPM of 25.4% in 2H23E (vs 23.3% in 1H23).
2024 年下半年展望：在訂單獲得、產能增加和成本控制的支持下，收益增長將恢復。在虛擬現實/醫療器械/電子煙/汽車領域贏得新訂單的支持下，我們預計東江惠州和越南工廠的利用率將在24財年下半年回升。東江在22/23財年實施了更嚴格的成本控制措施，從而提高了運營效率並節省了成本。我們預計，東江的收入/淨利潤將同比增長-9％/+7％，這得益於 2H23E 中GPM的25.4％（而23年上半年的23.3％）。
TK maintained high interim dividend payout ratio at 42.7% in 1H23.
東江在23年上半年將中期股息支付率維持在42.7％的高水平。
Attractive valuation at 3.5x FY24E P/E and 9% yield; Maintain Buy. We adjusted our TP to HK$3.09 based on rollovered 8.2x FY24E P/E, in-line with 5-year historical forward P/E. Trading at 3.5x FY24E P/E, we think the stock is attractive considering 9% yield. Maintain BUY. Catalysts include Meta/Google/Amazon product launches, order ramp-up of medical device/e-cigarette customers and margin recovery in 2H23/FY24E.
估值極具吸引力，市盈率爲3.5倍 FY24E，收益率爲9％；維持買入。根據展期8.2倍的 FY24E 市盈率，我們將目標價調整爲3.09港元，與5年期歷史遠期市盈率一致。考慮到收益率爲9％，我們認爲該股的交易價格爲3.5倍 FY24E 市盈率，我們認爲該股具有吸引力。維持買入。催化劑包括Meta/Google/Amazon產品的發佈、醫療器械/電子煙客戶的訂單增加以及2023財年下半年的利潤率回升。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。