CHINA NATIONAL BUILDING MATERIAL(3323.HK):SHARP FALL IN 1H23 EARNINGS FLAGGED;EXPECT MUCH STRONGER 2H23
CHINA NATIONAL BUILDING MATERIAL(3323.HK):SHARP FALL IN 1H23 EARNINGS FLAGGED;EXPECT MUCH STRONGER 2H23
The 75% YoY fall in CNBM's 1H23 earnings was largely in line with its earnings warning. The acute deterioration of profits of its cement business and glass fibre operations were the culprits. However, the company's profitability actually improved a lot in 2Q23. Assuming the improved profitability can last, we expect its earnings to jump 2.9x HoH in 2H23. We cut our 2023-25 earnings forecasts by 23-40% after post- results adjustments. Despite this, we reiterate our BUY call given its low valuations with target price reduced to HK$5.46.
CNBM23年上半年收益同比下降75％，這與其業績警告基本一致。其水泥業務和玻璃纖維業務的利潤急劇惡化是罪魁禍首。但是，該公司的盈利能力實際上在23年第二季度有了很大改善。假設盈利能力的改善能夠持續下去，我們預計其收益將在23年下半年增長2.9倍HoH。業績後調整後，我們將2023-25年的收益預期下調了23-40％。儘管如此，鑑於其估值較低，目標價降至5.46港元，我們重申了買入看漲期權。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
CNBM's net profit plummeted 75% YoY to RMB1.4bn in 1H23. The sharp fall in earnings was mainly caused by the 109% YoY decline in net profit of its basic building materials segment to a net loss of RMB262m in 1H23 as its unit gross profit of cement and clinker dropped 40% YoY to RMB38/tonne. The net profit of its new materials segment also dropped 36% YoY to RMB1.9bn in 1H23 as the price of glass fibre dropped on weak demand.
CNBM的淨利潤在23年上半年同比下降75％，至14億元人民幣。收益急劇下降的主要原因是其基礎建築材料板塊淨利潤同比下降109％，至23年上半年淨虧損2.62億元人民幣，原因是其水泥和熟料的單位毛利同比下降40％，至人民幣38元/噸。由於需求疲軟，玻璃纖維價格下跌，其新材料板塊的淨利潤也在23年上半年同比下降36％，至19億元人民幣。
However, the company's profit actually improved substantially in 2Q23 as the unit gross profit per tonne of cement and clinker improved. It posted a net profit of RMB2.2bn in 2Q23 under CAS, recovered from a net loss of RMB528m in 1Q23.
但是，隨着每噸水泥和熟料單位毛利的提高，該公司的利潤實際上在23年第二季度大幅提高。該公司在23年第二季度公佈收市競價交易時段淨利潤爲人民幣22億元，從23年第一季度人民幣5.28億元的淨虧損中恢復過來。
We expect its earnings to jump 2.9x HoH in 2H23. We first assume the improved unit gross profit of its basic material segment will last. In addition, we should see higher sales volume for gypsum board, lithium battery separators and wind power blades with new capacities for the first two start to contribute.
我們預計其收益將在23年下半年增長2.9倍HoH。我們首先假設其基礎材料板塊單位毛利的改善將持續下去。此外，我們應該會看到石膏板、鋰電池隔板和具有新產能的風力發電葉片的銷量增加，前兩者的銷量將開始有所增加。
In view of the poor 1H23 earnings, we slash our 2023-25 earnings forecasts by 23-40%. Despite this, the company's shares look attractive at 5.7x 2023E earnings and 7.1% 2023E dividend yield.
鑑於23年上半年的收益不佳，我們將2023-25年的收益預期下調了23-40％。儘管如此，該公司的股票看起來很有吸引力，2023年收益爲5.7倍，股息收益率爲7.1％。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Improved margin for cement business in 2Q23 cannot last.
23年第二季度水泥業務利潤率的提高不可能持續下去。
Lower-than-expected profit for the new materials segment.
新材料板塊的利潤低於預期。
Valuation
估價
We slash our target price from HK$9.62 to HK$5.46. On top of the cuts in our earnings forecasts, we also lower our target valuation from the average of 7x 2023E P/E and 0.72x 2023E P/E to the average of 6x 2023E P/E and 0.5x 2023E P/E in view of its lower earnings and ROE.
我們將目標價從9.62港元下調至5.46港元。除了下調收益預測外，鑑於其收益和投資回報率較低，我們還將目標估值從2023年市盈率的7倍和2023年市盈率的0.72倍下調至2023年市盈率的6倍和2023年市盈率的0.5倍的平均水平。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。