High-end new materials industry platform, casting wind power blade faucet and damping material "Little Giant". As a new material industry platform with the background of central enterprises, the company's products have covered five fields: rail transit, industry and engineering, wind power products, automobiles and new materials, and many fields are in a leading position in the industry. for example, the scale of rail transit elastic components ranks first in the world; the scale of wind power blades ranks second in China, and it is one of the few enterprises in the world with batch manufacturing capacity of polyurethane blades. The scale of the subdivision of automobile vibration reduction ranks third. Benefiting from the development of overseas markets of rail transit, the landing of large blade production capacity, the product transformation of Bogo in Germany, and the improvement of the product technical capability of the newly established division, the company's revenue in 2022 was + 7% compared with the same period last year, and its net profit was + 96.5% compared with the same period last year.
2023H1 achieved revenue of 8.22 billion yuan, + 15.2% year-on-year, and net profit of 200 million yuan, + 43.4% year-on-year.
In the period of rapid development of global wind power, large-scale wind turbines promote the growth of blade value. According to the historical data of the National Energy Administration, combined with the provincial 14th five-year Plan and the pace of bidding, we predict that the new installed capacity of domestic wind power will increase from 47.6GW to 99.4GW in 2021-2025 by 20.2%. According to GWEC, the new installed capacity of overseas wind power will increase from 46.3GW to 64.4GW between 2021 and 2025 by 8.6%. With the arrival of the era of wind power parity, the trend of large-scale wind turbine is clear, the length of wind turbine blades is increasing year by year, and the price of a single set of blades is expected to show an upward trend. We estimate that from 2022 to 2025, the global new blade market will grow from 50.14 billion yuan to 95.15 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 23.8%, of which the domestic new wind turbine market will grow from 17.75 billion yuan to 49.41 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 40.7%.
The strength of technology research and development is leading in the industry, and the production capacity layout covers markets at home and abroad. Time New Materials, as a leading enterprise of blades, is also in the first echelon in terms of blade research and development. 98m land wind blades successfully went off the line in **** factory in March 2023, setting the fastest record for the first downline in the industry; in the same month, the first set of 111.5m offshore blades was shipped in Sheyang factory. The company's blade production capacity planning includes Songyuan / Binxian factory, which can radiate the northeast market; Tianjin subsidiary can radiate the north and overseas markets; Sheyang branch can radiate the central and offshore markets; Henan factory group can radiate the central and southern China markets; Mengxi branch can radiate the northwest market; Baise factory can radiate the southwest market; in addition, the construction of overseas bases in the future will further expand overseas markets.
The overseas expansion of rail transit business is expected, and the automobile business is expected to come out of the bottom. In terms of rail transportation, with the transformation period of the urban rail transit industry in the domestic market from "construction-oriented" to "operation and operation", and under the background of "Belt and Road Initiative", China's rail industry is gradually moving overseas, the company continues to consolidate the domestic core market while actively expanding overseas markets. Sales orders in 2023H1's domestic market increased by more than 40%, while newly signed orders in overseas markets increased by more than 40%. In terms of automobiles, thanks to the improvement in the solid customer base and cost side of Volkswagen, Ford, Mercedes-Benz, General Motors and BMW, the company's revenue is expected to continue to grow and profits are expected to improve in 2023.
Investment suggestion: the company is one of the leading enterprises of wind power blades, line / bridge construction / automobile vibration reduction (earthquake). Benefiting from the uptrend of wind power and other industries, the company relies on its leading technological R & D strength and excellent strategic planning and layout. Profits are expected to maintain rapid growth. We estimate that the EPS of the company in 2023-2025 will be 0.6 PE18/12/9, which corresponds to RMB1.1 per share. Using the PE valuation method, with reference to comparable companies, the company is given 20 times PE for 23 years, corresponding to the target price of 12 yuan per share, with a "recommended" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: wind power installation is not as expected, overseas market expansion is not as expected, the substitution process of new materials is not as expected, raw material prices fluctuate, and so on.