DATANG RENEWABLE(1798.HK):1H23 RESULTS IN LINE;SELL-OFF OVERREACTED
DATANG RENEWABLE(1798.HK):1H23 RESULTS IN LINE;SELL-OFF OVERREACTED
Datang Renewable's 1H23 net profit of RMB1,780m (+1% YoY) was in line with our estimates but missing high-end market expectations, resulting in a 16.7% plunge of share price yesterday. We see the sell- off as a mixed result of expectation misalignment and possible misunderstanding of dividend policy. Given undemanding valuations, we maintain BUY rating and HK$3.20 TP.
大唐可再生能源23年上半年淨利潤爲人民幣17.8億元（同比增長1％），符合我們的預期，但未達到高端市場的預期，導致昨日股價暴跌16.7％。我們認爲，拋售是預期失調和對股息政策可能存在誤解的喜憂參半的結果。鑑於估值要求不高，我們維持買入評級和3.20港元目標價。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
1H23 results review. DTR's revenue grew by 12% YoY in 1H23, thanks to 19% power generation increase during the period but dragged by 6% decline in average tariff. Finance expenses dropped by 16% YoY thanks to active refinancing activities, or 11% after considering interests on perpetual bonds.However, as DTR booked several one-off incomes such as reversals of impairment and warranty claims in 1H22, its net profit made limited progress on the high base.
2023 年上半年業績回顧。DTR的收入在23年上半年同比增長了12％，這要歸功於同期發電量增長了19％，但受到平均電價下降6％的拖累。由於積極的再融資活動，財務支出同比下降了16％，在考慮了永久債券的利息後，財務支出同比下降了11％。但是，由於DTR在22年上半年記錄了幾筆一次性收入，例如減值沖銷和保修索賠，其淨利潤在高基數上的進展有限。
Dividend discussion. It may appear weird to talk about dividend payment for a growing renewable company, but the discussion was brought up during the post-result conference calls nevertheless. We opine that there might be some misunderstanding regarding the company's dividend policy which contributed to the sell-off yesterday, as management clarifies it has no intention to raise payout ratio (averaging 18% during the last five years). Subsidiaries with debt-to-asset ratio below 80% would distribute profits to parentco DTR after booking surplus reserve, and the pooled distributions will become the base for dividend payment (instead of net profit in consolidated P&L statement). DTR did not announce interim dividend for 1H23 as always.
股息討論。談論一家成長中的可再生能源公司的股息支付似乎很奇怪，但討論是在業績後的電話會議上提出的。我們認爲，對公司的股息政策可能存在一些誤解，這促成了昨天的拋售，因爲管理層澄清說，它無意提高派息率（過去五年平均爲18％）。債務與資產比率低於80％的子公司將在記入盈餘準備金後將利潤分配給parentco DTR，而集合分配將成爲支付股息的基礎（而不是合併損益表中的淨利潤）。DTR沒有像往常一樣宣佈23年上半年的中期股息。
Capacity growth and tariff. DTR added 136MW new capacity in 1H23, +1% compared to end-2022 base, which is not abnormal for renewable companies that typically commissions majority of new projects in 2H. Management reveals projects under construction amounted to 2.6GW as of end-Jun 2023, and the company won approval for another 2.58GW projects during 1H23. We believe DTR is still on track to deliver decent capacity growth in the next few years.
產能增長和費率。DTR在23年上半年增加了136兆瓦的新產能，與2022年底的基準相比增長了1％，這對於通常在下半年委託大部分新項目的可再生能源公司來說並不異常。管理層透露，截至2023年6月底，在建項目總量爲2.6吉瓦，該公司在23年上半年又獲得了2.58吉瓦項目的批准。我們認爲，DTR仍有望在未來幾年內實現可觀的產能增長。
DTR's realized tariff was RMB470/MWh in 1H23, down 6% YoY. Of which, impacts from 1) new projects with lower tariff; 2) increase in market-based power trading volume and 3) increase in auxiliary service fee represents roughly 20%/40%/40% of the reduction in tariff.
23年上半年，DTR的已實現費率爲人民幣470元/兆瓦時，同比下降6％。其中，1) 電費較低的新項目；2) 基於市場的電力交易量增加和3) 輔助服務費增加的影響，約佔電費降低的20％/40％/40％。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Slower-than-expected capacity growth; higher-than-expected expenses.
產能增長低於預期；支出高於預期。
Valuation
估價
Maintain BUY rating. DTR is trading at 0.6x adjusted 2024 P/E, which we deem as undemanding.
維持買入評級。DTR的交易價格爲調整後的2024年市盈率的0.6倍，我們認爲這要求不高。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。