ZHAOJIN MINING(01818.HK):PROFITABILITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON RISING GOLD PRICE AND MORE MINED GOLD OUTPUT
ZHAOJIN MINING(01818.HK):PROFITABILITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON RISING GOLD PRICE AND MORE MINED GOLD OUTPUT
We maintain the investment rating for Zhaojin Mining (the "Company") as "Buy", with TP of HK$15.05. Our TP represents 34.8x 2023 PER and 27.5x 2024 PER. Net profit of Zhaojin Mining has great growth potential and will be driven by higher gold price and decreasing mined gold production costs.
我們將招金礦業（“公司”）的投資評級維持爲 “買入”，目標價爲15.05港元。我們的目標價爲2023年市盈率的34.8倍和2024年每股收益率的27.5倍。招金礦業的淨利潤具有巨大的增長潛力，這將受到金價上漲和開採黃金生產成本下降的推動。
We expect gold price to continue to rise and Zhaojin Mining's net profit to gold price is highly elastic. The US Federal Reserve is approaching the terminal point of interest rate hike, which will significantly relieve the pressure weighing on gold price. Actual yield-curve of US Treasuries is expected to decline in the future and thus increasing attractiveness of gold assets. As the US inflation is improving while macro economy is still under great pressure, we believe the time of interest rate cut may come soon. We believe the attractiveness of gold assets is growing and investment demand for gold assets may grow largely in the cycle of interest rate cut. Gold mining business is the main business of the Company, and it plans to produce about 420,000 oz of mined gold from its own mines in 2023. The production of the Company had resumed normal and its mining output is expected to grow steadily in 203-2025. As gold constitutes about 90% of its revenue, net profit of the Company is highly elastic to the gold price. We believe that the Company will benefit greatly when the gold price rises.
我們預計金價將繼續上漲，招金礦業的淨利潤與金價相比具有很強的彈性。美聯儲正接近加息的終點，這將大大緩解金價承壓的壓力。預計未來美國國債的實際收益率曲線將下降，從而增加黃金資產的吸引力。由於美國通貨膨脹率正在改善，而宏觀經濟仍面臨巨大壓力，我們認爲降息的時機可能很快就會到來。我們認爲，在降息週期中，黃金資產的吸引力正在增長，對黃金資產的投資需求可能會在很大程度上增長。金礦開採業務是該公司的主要業務，該公司計劃在2023年從自己的礦山生產約42萬盎司開採的黃金。該公司的生產已恢復正常，其礦業產量預計將在203-2025年穩步增長。由於黃金約佔其收入的90％，因此該公司的淨利潤對金價具有很強的彈性。我們相信，當金價上漲時，公司將受益匪淺。
Decreasing mined gold production costs will be another driver for profit growth in 2023-2025. Zhaojin Mining produced 8.4 tons of mined gold in 1H2023, and the production costs of mined gold increased by 1.7% yoy to RMB 214.67/g. The rise in production costs of mined gold was mainly attributed to higher safety production requirements and higher material costs. Generally speaking, production costs of the Company remained high and were about 30% higher than the production costs before 2020. Mined gold production costs of Zhaojin Mining are closely related to its production scale and we expect production costs to decline with expanded production scale. The production of gold mines of the Company in Shandong Province resumed to normal, and the Company is still expanding the production capacity of Xiadian and Dayingezhuang gold mines. Haiyu Gold Mine, which is under construction, is the largest gold mine of the Company. It has a designed production capacity of 15-20 tons of mined gold and is expected to commence production in 2025. Hence, total mined gold output of the Company is expected to grow steadily in 2023-2025, and the rate of growth will accelerate from 2025 after Haiyu Gold Mine commences production. We expect production costs of the Company to continue to decline as mined gold output grows.
降低開採的黃金生產成本將是2023-2025年利潤增長的另一個驅動力。招金礦業在 1H2023 中生產了8.4噸開採的黃金，開採黃金的生產成本同比增長1.7％，至214.67元人民幣。開採黃金生產成本的上漲主要歸因於更高的安全生產要求和更高的材料成本。總體而言，該公司的生產成本仍然很高，比2020年之前的生產成本高出約30％。招金礦業的開採黃金生產成本與其生產規模密切相關，我們預計隨着生產規模的擴大，生產成本將下降。公司在山東省的金礦生產恢復正常，公司仍在擴大夏店和大音各莊金礦的產能。正在建設中的海玉金礦是公司最大的金礦。它的設計產能爲15-20噸開採的黃金，預計將於2025年開始生產。因此，該公司的開採黃金總產量預計將在2023-2025年穩步增長，在海宇金礦開始生產後，增長速度將從2025年起加快。我們預計，隨着開採黃金產量的增長，該公司的生產成本將繼續下降。
The growth in net profit was mainly attributable to higher gold prices in 1H2023. Total net profit of the Company increased 74.6% yoy to RMB365 million, mainly due to higher ASP of mined gold. Average gold price increased 3.09% yoy to US$1,934/oz and gross margin of the Company was up 1.34 ppts to 39.0%. The Company produced 209,600 oz of mined gold from its own mines, which was generally flat.
淨利潤的增長主要歸因於 1H2023 中金價的上漲。該公司的總淨利潤同比增長74.6％，達到 RMB365 百萬美元，這主要是由於開採的黃金的每股收益增加。平均黃金價格同比上漲3.09％，至每盎司1,934美元，該公司的毛利率上漲1.34個百分點至39.0％。該公司從自己的礦山生產了20.96萬盎司開採的黃金，總體持平。
Catalyst: Increase in gold price; the US Fed to end interest rate hikes; bank crisis in the US and EU.
催化劑：金價上漲；美聯儲將結束加息；美國和歐盟的銀行危機。
Risks: Decline in gold price; gold mine production impact from external factors.
風險：金價下跌；外部因素對金礦產量的影響。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。