NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(600219):PROPORTION OF HIGH-END PRODUCTS RISING;GLOBAL EXPANSION CONTINUES
NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(600219):PROPORTION OF HIGH-END PRODUCTS RISING;GLOBAL EXPANSION CONTINUES
1H23 results in line with our expectations
2023 年上半年的業績符合我們的預期
Nanshan Aluminum announced its 1H23 results: The firm's revenue fell 19.04% YoY to about Rmb14.50bn, net profit attributable to shareholders dropped 28.08% YoY to about Rmb1.31bn, and recurring net profit declined 28.90% YoY to about Rmb1.28bn, in line with our expectations. In 2Q23, the firm's revenue fell 15.32% YoY but rose 12.17% QoQ to about Rmb7.67bn, net profit attributable to shareholders dropped 28.06% YoY but rose 53.03% QoQ to Rmb794mn.
南山鋁業公佈了其23年上半年業績：公司收入同比下降19.04％，至約145.0億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比下降28.08％，至約13.1億元人民幣，經常性淨利潤同比下降28.90％，至約12.8億元人民幣，符合我們的預期。在23年第二季度，該公司的收入同比下降15.32％，但環比增長12.17％，至約76.7億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比下降28.06％，但環比增長53.03％，至7.94億元人民幣。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Sales volume of high-end products to keep rising; such products to account for growing share in profit. The firm focuses on developing high value-added products such as auto sheets, aviation sheets, and automotive battery foils. The gross profit of high-end products accounted for 29% of the firm's total gross profit from aluminum products in 1H23, up 8ppt YoY. Looking ahead, we expect the expansion and ramp-up of the firm's production capacity for automotive aluminum sheet products to accelerate. The firm expects its production capacity for such products to be 0.4mnt/year in 2024 and it plans to increase the production capacity to 0.7mnt/year in the long term. According to the firm, demand for automotive aluminum sheets is growing rapidly and technological barriers to entry for such products are high.
高端產品的銷量將持續增長；此類產品在利潤中所佔份額將不斷增加。該公司專注於開發高附加值產品，例如汽車板材、航空板材和汽車電池箔。高端產品的毛利佔該公司23年上半年鋁產品總毛利的29％，同比增長8個百分點。展望未來，我們預計該公司汽車鋁板產品產能的擴張和提高將加速。該公司預計，到2024年，此類產品的年產能將達到40萬噸，並計劃長期將產能提高到70萬噸/年。據該公司稱，對汽車鋁板的需求正在迅速增長，此類產品的進入技術壁壘很高。
As the first large-scale supplier of interior and exterior aluminum sheets for passenger vehicles in China, the firm currently has 0.2mnt/year of production capacity in operation and it expects its 0.2mnt/year newly built production capacity to be put into operation in 2024. In addition, based on market demand, we think the firm could convert 0.3mnt/year of its existing aluminum can material production capacity into automotive aluminum sheet production capacity. This could increase its total production capacity for automotive aluminum sheets to 0.7mnt/year.
作爲中國第一家大型乘用車內外鋁板供應商，該公司目前的年產能爲20萬噸，預計其新建的20萬噸/年產能將於2024年投產。此外，根據市場需求，我們認爲該公司可以將其現有的30萬噸/年的鋁罐材料產能轉化爲汽車鋁板的產能。這可能會將其汽車鋁板的總產能提高到70萬噸/年。
Meanwhile, the global aviation industry is recovering, and we think domestic mass production of large airplanes will boost demand for aluminum materials used in aviation. The firm is the only domestic firm to supply aviation material to both domestic and world-renowned aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing, Airbus, and COMAC. As overseas aviation industries recover and domestic mass production of large airplanes accelerates, we expect the firm to continue ramping up its 50,000t production capacity for aviation aluminum sheets. We expect the proportion of high-end products in the firm's total profits to rise further.
同時，全球航空業正在復甦，我們認爲大型飛機的國內批量生產將提振對航空用鋁材料的需求。該公司是唯一一家向波音、空中客車和中國商飛等國內和世界知名飛機制造商供應航空材料的國內公司。隨着海外航空業的復甦和大型飛機的國內批量生產加速，我們預計該公司將繼續提高其5萬噸航空鋁板的產能。我們預計，高端產品在公司總利潤中所佔的比例將進一步上升。
In addition, production capacity of battery foils continues to increase and targets the high-end market. The firm has built a 21,000t production line, and it has become a core supplier to well-known clients such as CATL and China Aviation Lithium Battery (CALB). Looking ahead, the firm aims to develop high-performance automotive battery foils and targets the high- end market.
此外，電池箔的產能持續增加，並瞄準高端市場。該公司已經建造了一條21,000噸的生產線，並已成爲寧德時代和中航鋰電池（CALB）等知名客戶的核心供應商。展望未來，該公司的目標是開發高性能的汽車電池箔，並瞄準高端市場。
Shifting focus to deep processing; stepping up efforts to establish an integrated presence overseas. In the domestic market, the firm strategically abandoned high-cost electrolytic aluminum production capacity upstream to further focus on downstream deep processing. In 1H23, the firm transferred its electrolytic aluminum quota of 336,000t. The firm has 1.70mnt of alumina production capacity and 480,000t of electrolytic aluminum capacity. In the overseas market, the firm commenced operation of its 2mnt/year alumina production capacity at an Indonesian industrial park in October 2022. The firm plans to also build a 0.25mnt/year electrolytic aluminum project and a 0.26mnt/year carbon project to expand its presence in downstream segments of the industry value chain and improve its integrated presence in the industry value chain. The firm expects the construction of these projects to be completed in 2026.
將重點轉移到深度加工上；加大力度在海外建立綜合業務。在國內市場，該公司戰略性地放棄了上游的高成本電解鋁產能，轉而進一步專注於下游的深加工。23年上半年，該公司轉讓了33.6萬噸的電解鋁配額。該公司擁有1.70萬噸氧化鋁產能和48萬噸電解鋁產能。在海外市場，該公司於2022年10月在印度尼西亞的一個工業園區開始運營其200萬噸/年的氧化鋁產能。該公司還計劃建設一個年產0.25萬噸的電解鋁項目和一個0.26萬噸/年的碳項目，以擴大其在行業價值鏈下游領域的影響力，並改善其在行業價值鏈中的綜合影響力。該公司預計這些項目的建設將於2026年完工。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We maintain our 2023-2024 earnings forecast unchanged. The stock is trading at 9.3x 2023e and 9.0x 2024e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and keep our target price at Rmb4.19, implying 12.7x 2023e and 12.3x 2024e P/E, offering 36.5% upside.
我們維持2023-2024年盈利預測不變。該股的交易價格爲2023年e的9.3倍和2024年市盈率的9.0倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，並將目標價維持在4.19元人民幣，這意味着2023年爲12.7倍，2024年市盈率爲12.3倍，上行空間爲36.5％。
Risks
風險
Sharp fluctuations in aluminum price; progress of projects disappoints; recovery of demand in downstream industries falls short of expectations.
鋁價劇烈波動；項目進展令人失望；下游行業需求的復甦低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。