受锌价下滑和期间费用拖累，上半年归母净利润同比下滑36.34%，业绩略低于预期。2023 年上半年，铅/锌市场均价为1.53 万元/吨、2.2 万元/吨，同比-0.6%/-14.6%，其中Q2 价格同比-0.3%/-20.9%，环比+0%/-10.3%，公司二季度实现营业收入204.36 亿元，同比-3.36%，环比+21.71%，实现归母净利润2.2亿元，同比-57.35%，环比-31.25%。业绩下降主要受期间费用的增加和铅锌价格的下降影响，其中期间费用增加包括受并购带来的管理费用增加、扩大贷款规模带来的利息支出增加。二季度，公司期间费用4.13 亿元，同比+27.5%，环比+27.9%，期间费用率达到2.02%，同比+0.5 pct，环比+0.1 pct，其中财务费用1.08 亿元，同比+96.4%，环比+20%，管理费用1.63 亿元，同比+29.4%，环比+14.8%。Items:
According to the company's semi-annual report for 2023, the company achieved a total operating income of 37.227 billion yuan, an increase of 3.76% over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 3.76%, a net profit of 540 million yuan, a decrease of 36.34%, a non-return net profit of 503 million yuan, a decrease of 38.76% over the same period last year, and a net cash flow of 47 million yuan from operating activities, a decrease of 90.38% over the same period last year. Net cash flow from investment activities was-3.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of 1326.81%.
Comments:
Due to the decline in zinc prices and the drag of costs during the period, the net profit of returning home in the first half of the year fell 36.34% from the same period last year, slightly lower than expected. In the first half of 2023, the average market price of lead / zinc was 153,000 yuan / ton and 22,000 yuan / ton, which was-0.6% and 14.6% compared with the same period last year, of which Q2 price was-0.3% and 10.3% respectively compared with the same period last year. The company achieved operating income of 20.436 billion yuan in the second quarter,-3.36% and + 21.71% respectively, and realized a net profit of 220 million yuan and-57.35%. Month-on-month ratio-31.25%. The decline in performance is mainly affected by the increase in costs during the period and the decline in lead and zinc prices, in which the increase in costs includes the increase in management costs brought about by mergers and acquisitions and the increase in interest expenses brought about by the expansion of loans. In the second quarter, the company's period expenses were 413 million yuan, year-on-year + 27.5%, month-on-month + 27.9%, period expense rate reached 2.02%, year-on-year + 0.5 pct, month-on-month + 0.1 pct, of which financial expenses were 108 million yuan, year-on-year + 96.4%, month-on-month + 20%, management expenses 163 million yuan, year-on-year + 29.4%, month-on-month + 14.8.
Lead and zinc concentrate has declined, and the overall business of lead and zinc smelting products has improved steadily. In the first half of 2023, the company produced 134100 tons of lead and zinc metal concentrate, down 1.54 percent from the same period last year, of which 82800 tons were produced by domestic mines, down 11.44 percent from the same period last year, with operating income of 11.86 billion yuan, down 49.18 percent from the same period last year.
On the smelting side, the company produced 215200 tons of smelting lead and zinc products, an increase of 27.64 percent over the same period last year. The increase in output offset the decline in the prices of some products, achieving an operating income of 3.45 billion yuan, an increase of 39.7 percent over the same period last year. In addition, the company produces 19600 tons of sulfur, 800 tons of crude copper, 60 tons of silver, 8.67 tons of gallium, and 8.13 tons of germanium in germanium concentrate.
Completed the acquisition of Shandong Zhongjin Lingnan Copper Industry, copper smelting started performance contribution. In 2023, the company formally took over the restructuring enterprises such as Dongying Fangyuan Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., and renamed the copper smelting enterprise to Shandong Zhongjin Lingnan Copper Co., Ltd., the company actually owns 38.62% of the interests of Zhongjin Copper Industry, and the opening of copper smelting products contributes to the company's performance.
In the first half of 2023, the company achieved an output of 192100 tons of cathode copper, which led to a substantial increase in the scale of by-products such as sulfuric acid. The company's industrial sulfuric acid output in the first half of the year was 937900 tons, an increase of 783% over the same period last year. Among them, CICC Copper achieved a net profit of 245 million yuan and contributed 95 million yuan to the company.
Investment advice: considering the decline in lead and zinc prices and the decline in the company's non-ferrous metals trading performance in the first half of the year, we make adjustments to the company's performance forecast for 2023-2025: the company is expected to achieve a return net profit of 13.2pm 16.9 / 1.92 billion yuan (the previous value is 15.79pm 1.924 billion yuan), an increase of 8.9%, 27.8%, 14.0% respectively over the same period last year, with reference to comparable companies and historical valuations of the company. And taking into account the growth of the company in the layout of copper resources, give a 24-year 14-fold valuation, the target price of 6.3 yuan, more than the current 24% space to maintain a "strong push" rating.
Risk tips: metal prices fluctuate sharply; the expansion of the project is not as expected.