HUITONGDA NETWORK(9878.HK):LOOKING INTO RECOVERY IN 2H23E
HUITONGDA NETWORK(9878.HK):LOOKING INTO RECOVERY IN 2H23E
HTD delivered mixed 1H23 results with upbeat margin. Rev +6.6% YoY, 6.2% below consensus, while adj. net profit +20% YoY, in line with consensus. We modeled rev +12.9% YoY in FY23E, in which 2H23E rev would accelerate to +19.5% YoY. Consumer electronics and vehicles continue to be the main drivers, on supply chain expansion and low product penetration in low-tier cities. Services would bottom out at 10% growth YoY in FY23E, driven by SaaS adjustments with substantially rising paying users, partially offset by lower ARPU. The acquisition of Hosjoy (好享家) would contribute RMB60mn profit in FY23E. We slightly lifted HTD's FY23-25E earnings forecast by 10-14%, to factor in better margin outlook despite macro uncertainty. Our SoTP-based TP is unchanged at HK$55.
HTD在2023年上半年的業績好壞參半，利潤率樂觀。同比增長6.6％，比預期低6.2％，而調整後的淨利潤同比增長20％，與共識一致。我們在 FY23E 中建模了同比增長12.9％，其中 2H23E 的轉速將加速至同比增長19.5％。消費電子產品和汽車仍然是供應鏈擴張和低線城市產品滲透率低下的主要驅動力。在 FY23E 中，服務業將觸底至同比增長10％，這得益於SaaS的調整，付費用戶大幅增加，但部分被較低的ARPU所抵消。收購 Hosjoy（好享家）將在 FY23E 中貢獻6000萬元人民幣的利潤。儘管宏觀存在不確定性，但我們還是將HTD的 FY23-25E 收益預期略有上調了10-14％，以考慮利潤率前景的改善。我們基於SOTP的目標價保持不變，爲55港元。
Mixed 1H23 results with upbeat margin. 1H23 rev +6.6% YoY, 6.2% below consensus, while adj. net profit reached RMB245mn, 0%/7% above consensus/ our estimates. Commerce biz (+6.8% YoY) was mainly dragged by declining agricultural production/homebuilding/liquor and beverage (- 19.1%/-5.5%/-16.4% YoY), while offset by resilient consumer electronics/vehicles (+24.4%/3.5% YoY). Consumer electronics and vehicles outperformance were attributable to improved supply chain capacity with cooperation with Apple, ZTE, Dell, BYD, etc. Services -5.8% YoY, mainly on merchant solutions adjustments (-27.6% YoY). GPM climbed to 2.3% in 1H23 from 2.2% in 1H22, in which services' GPM surged to 84.4% from 75.4% in 1H22.
23年上半年業績喜憂參半，利潤率樂觀。23年上半年同比增長6.6％，低於預期6.2％，而調整後的淨利潤達到2.45億元人民幣，比我們的預期高出0％/7％。商業業務（同比增長6.8％）主要受到農業產量/房屋建築/白酒和飲料下降的拖累（同比下降19.1％/-5.5％/-16.4％），而被彈性的消費電子產品/汽車（同比增長24.4％/3.5％）所抵消。消費電子產品和汽車業績跑贏大盤歸因於與蘋果、中興通訊、戴爾、比亞迪等合作提高了供應鏈產能。服務業同比下降5.8％，主要是商戶解決方案調整（同比下降27.6％）。GPM從22年上半年的2.2％攀升至23年上半年的2.3％，其中服務業的毛利率從22年上半年的75.4％飆升至84.4％。
Looking into 2H23E recovery. We modeled rev +12.9% YoY in FY23E, in which 2H23E rev would accelerate to +19.5% YoY. Consumer electronics and vehicles continue to be the main drivers mainly on supply chain expansion and low product penetration in low-tier cities. Other verticals such as household appliances/agricultural production/liquor and beverage will sequentially recover in 2H23E, while homebuilding will further decline due to the downturn in real estate and construction industries. Services would bottom out at 10% YoY growth in FY23E, driven by SaaS adjustments with substantially rising paying users, partially offset by lower ARPU. We expect acquisition of Hosjoy to contribute RMB60mn/66mn profit in FY23E/24E.
正在調查 2H23E 的恢復。我們在 FY23E 中建模了同比增長12.9％，其中 2H23E 的轉速將加速至同比增長19.5％。消費電子產品和汽車仍然是主要驅動力，主要原因是低線城市的供應鏈擴張和產品滲透率低。家用電器/農業生產/酒類和飲料等其他垂直行業將在 2H23E 中連續復甦，而由於房地產和建築業的低迷，房屋建築將進一步下滑。在 FY23E 中，服務業將觸底至同比增長10％，這得益於SaaS的調整，付費用戶大幅增加，但部分被較低的ARPU所抵消。我們預計，收購Hosjoy將在23E/24E財年帶來6000萬元人民幣/6600萬元的利潤。
Maintain BUY. We slightly lifted HTD's FY23-25E earnings forecast by 10- 14%, to factor in better margin outlook despite macro uncertainty. We keep positive on its secular growth (10%/24% topline/bottom line CAGR in FY23- 25E). Our SoTP-based TP is unchanged at HK$55.
維持買入。儘管宏觀存在不確定性，但我們還是將HTD的 FY23-25E 收益預期略有上調了10-14％，以考慮利潤率前景的改善。我們對其長期增長持樂觀態度（23-25財年收入/利潤複合年增長率爲10％/24％）。我們基於SOTP的目標價保持不變，爲55港元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。