BINJIANG SERVICE(3316.HK):1H23 MISSED FUTURE GROWTH UNDER PRESSURE
BINJIANG SERVICE(3316.HK):1H23 MISSED FUTURE GROWTH UNDER PRESSURE
Company's 1H23 earnings missed with NP grew at 21% YoY vs. original FY target of 30% given 1) late approval of withholding tax deduction which could have sent NP growth to 29% in 1H23. 2)GP margin declined 4.8 ppts to 26.7% mainly driven by revenue structure change in community VAS. We like the company for its stable parentco., good cash flow and high dividend pay-out ratio, but lowered our forecast in NP by 4-11% in FY23-25E to reflect its pressure on both third-party expansion and two VAS segments. Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$ 34.33, representing 16x 2023E PE.
該公司23年上半年的收益未達到，淨利潤同比增長21％，而最初的財年目標爲30％，原因是1）預扣稅減免延遲獲得批准，這本來可以使NP在23年上半年增長至29％。2）GP利潤率下降了4.8個百分點至26.7％，這主要是由於社區增值稅收入結構的變化。我們喜歡該公司的母公司穩定、良好的現金流和較高的股息支付率，但我們在 FY23-25E 中將NP的預測下調了4-11％，以反映其對第三方擴張和兩個增值稅細分市場的壓力。維持買入，新目標價爲34.33港元，相當於2023年度市盈率的16倍。
1H23 earnings missed due to late withholding tax relief and margin contraction. Company delivered 43% YoY growth in revenue to RMB 1.2bn in 1H23, and net profit grew 21% YoY to RMB 231mn, missing our expectation. This was mainly due to 1) withholding tax deduction approval was later-than-expected. Company's dividend paid to non-PRC receivers was subject to a withholding tax rate of 10%, the on-going tax deduction application will lower the rate to 5%, representing ~RMB 21mn impairment reversal. The NP growth could reach 29% if application approved earlier. 2) GP margin declined 4.8 ppts to 26.7% mainly caused by community VAS structure change.
由於延遲的預扣稅減免和利潤縮水，2023年上半年的收益未達預期。公司在23年上半年實現收入同比增長43％至12億元人民幣，淨利潤同比增長21％，至2.31億元人民幣，未達到我們的預期。這主要是因爲 1) 預扣稅減免的批准晚於預期。公司向非中國收款人支付的股息適用10％的預扣稅率，正在進行的稅收減免申請將把該稅率降至5％，相當於約2100萬元人民幣的減值逆轉。如果申請提前獲得批准，NP增長可能達到29％。2）GP利潤率下降了4.8個百分點至26.7％，這主要是由於社區增值稅結構的變化。
VAS growth under pressure. Non-owner VAS segment recorded revenue of RMB 279mn, with growth slowed 19% YoY in 1H23 from 45.7% in 1H22 and 28.8% in FY22 as developers continue to cut expense due to liquidity strain. Community VAS booked 212% YoY growth in revenue but the GP margin was largely contracted to 34.8% in 1H23 from 71.5% in 1H22 and 48.3% in FY22 as the housing brokerage service and home living services with high GP margins were impacted by slow recovery of property market and consumption, and company puts more efforts on soft furnishing business with lower margin that leads to proper growth in revenue, but a big decline in GP margin. The trend is likely to continue in 2H23 in our view.
VAS增長承受壓力。由於流動性緊張，開發商繼續削減開支，非自有增值服務板塊錄得2.79億元人民幣收入，同比增長從2022年上半年的45.7％和22財年的28.8％放緩了19％。Community VAS的收入同比增長212％，但由於房地產市場和消費復甦緩慢的影響，GP利潤率從2022年上半年的71.5％和22財年的48.3％基本收縮至23年上半年的34.8％，這是因爲房地產市場和消費復甦緩慢的影響了住房經紀服務和居家生活服務，公司將更多精力放在軟傢俱業務上，利潤率較低，導致收入適當增長，但GP利潤率大幅下降。我們認爲，這種趨勢可能會在23年下半年持續下去。
Operating cash flow remained good. Company's operating cash flow increased 39% YoY in 1H23 thanks to less PM fee delay in high-end projects and more revenue contribution from services with fee collected in advance like soft furnishing.
運營現金流保持良好。公司的運營現金流在23年上半年同比增長了39％，這要歸功於高端項目的項目經理費用延遲減少以及軟裝傢俱等提前收取費用的服務的收入貢獻增加。
Maintain BUY and cut TP by 4% to HK$ 34.33. We like the company for its less connected transaction, stable parentco., good cash flow and high dividend pay-out ratio at 60%, Maintain BUY. We lowered our forecast on net profit by 4-11% in FY23-25E (25% CAGR) to reflect company's pressure on third-party expansion among intensifying competition and struggling VAS business mentioned above. We come up with a new TP of HK$ 34.3, representing 16x 2023E PE. The company is currently trading at 10x 2023E PE. Catalysts: withholding tax impairment reversal, Stock Connection inclusion. Risk: lower-than-expected property market recovery.
維持買入並下調目標價 4% 至34.33港元。我們喜歡該公司，因爲其關聯交易較少，母公司穩定，現金流良好，股息支付率高達60％，維持買入。我們將對 FY23-25E 淨利潤的預測下調了4-11％（複合年增長率爲25％），以反映在競爭激烈和增值服務業務陷入困境的情況下，公司對第三方擴張的壓力。我們得出的新目標價爲34.3港元，相當於2023年度市盈率的16倍。該公司目前的交易價格爲2023年E市盈率的10倍。催化劑：預扣稅減值逆轉，納入股票連接。風險：房地產市場復甦低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。