The Guardforce AI Co., Limited (NASDAQ:GFAI) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 27%. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 59% share price decline.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Guardforce AI's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.8x is worth a mention when the median P/S in the United States' Commercial Services industry is similar at about 1.1x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.
View our latest analysis for Guardforce AI
What Does Guardforce AI's Recent Performance Look Like?
Guardforce AI could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Guardforce AI will help you uncover what's on the horizon.
What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Guardforce AI would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 1.9%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 11% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the only analyst covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 7.3% over the next year. With the industry predicted to deliver 10% growth, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.
With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Guardforce AI's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
What We Can Learn From Guardforce AI's P/S?
Guardforce AI's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
When you consider that Guardforce AI's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 5 warning signs for Guardforce AI (4 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Guardforce AI, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.