XIABUXIABU CATERING MANAGEMENT(00520.HK):WAIT FOR CATALYSTS
XIABUXIABU CATERING MANAGEMENT(00520.HK):WAIT FOR CATALYSTS
Xiabuxiabu: Adhere to high cost performance, raise store unit target. During 1H23, Xiabuxiabu same-store sales increased by 29.1% YoY. In 2H23, the company plans to open 51 new Xiabuxiabu stores in mainland China, and adding the 89 newly opened stores in 1H23, full year target 140 new stores is 20 more than the original expectation of 120 stores.Xiabuxiabu reported 1H23 revenue of Rmb2.8bn (+32% YoY), and net profit of Rmb2m, lower than our expectation, mainly due to the lower-than-expected same-store-sales. We lower 23E EPS forecast from Rmb0.28 to Rmb0.10, lower 24E EPS forecast from Rmb0.38 to Rmb0.21 (+119% YoY), and lower 25E EPS forecast from Rmb0.49 to Rmb0.34 (+62% YoY). We lower target price from HK$8 to HK$4.7, and with 19% upside potential, we downgrade rating from Buy to Outperform.
Xiabuxiabu公佈的23年上半年收入爲人民幣28億元（同比增長32％），淨利潤爲人民幣200萬元，低於我們的預期，這主要是由於同店銷售低於預期。我們將23E每股收益預測從0.28元下調至0.10元人民幣，將24年每股收益預測從0.38元下調至0.21元人民幣（同比增長119％），並將25E每股收益預測從0.49元人民幣下調至0.34元人民幣（同比增長62％）。我們將目標價從8港元下調至4.7港元，鑑於上行潛力爲19％，我們將評級從買入下調至跑贏大盤。
Increasing store unit, with Coucou brand's revenue contribution higher than that of Xiabuxiabu brand. During 1H23, the company opened 91 new Xiabuxiabu stores, 28 Coucou stores, and 1 Shaohot store, and closed 49 Xiabuxiabu stores and 3 Coucou stores. By the end of 1H23, the company has owned and operated 843 Xiabuxiabu stores, 249 Coucou stores, and 2 Shaohot store.Xiabuxiabu brand, Coucou brand, condiment business, and other businesses accounted for 48%, 49%, 2%, and 1% of total revenue, respectively, in 1H23.
門店數量增加，Coucou品牌的收入貢獻高於XiabuXiabu品牌。在23年上半年，該公司新開了91家XiabuXiabu門店、28家Coucou門店和1家邵浩特門店，並關閉了49家XiabuXiabu門店和3家Coucou門店。截至23年上半年底，該公司已擁有並經營843家夏布夏布門店、249家Coucou門店和2家邵浩特店。夏布夏布品牌、Coucou品牌、調味品業務和其他業務分別佔23年上半年總收入的48％、49％、2％和1％。
Coucou: same-store under pressure, lower store unit target. During 1H23, Coucou same-store sales grew by 4.9% YoY. However, the same-store sales fell by 4.1% YoY in second-tier cities, and fell by 15.3% YoY in third-tier cities and below, due to the relatively high pricing of the brand. In 2H23, the company plans to open 18 new Coucou stores in mainland China, and adding the 27 newly opened stores in 1H23, full year target 45 new stores is 29 less than the original expectation of 74 stores.
Coucou：同店承受壓力，降低門店單位目標。在23年上半年，Coucou同店銷售額同比增長4.9％。然而，由於品牌定價相對較高，二線城市的同店銷售額同比下降4.1％，三線及以下城市的同店銷售額同比下降15.3％。該公司計劃在23年下半年在中國大陸開設18家新的Coucou門店，並在23年上半年增加27家新開門店，全年目標爲45家新門店，比最初預期的74家門店少29家。
Xiabuxiabu: Adhere to high cost performance, raise store unit target. During 1H23, Xiabuxiabu same-store sales increased by 29.1% YoY. In 2H23, the company plans to open 51 new Xiabuxiabu stores in mainland China, and adding the 89 newly opened stores in 1H23, full year target 140 new stores is 20 more than the original expectation of 120 stores.
Xiabuxiabu：堅持高性價比，提高門店單位目標。在23年上半年，XiabuXiabu同店銷售額同比增長29.1％。該公司計劃在23年下半年在中國大陸開設51家新開的XiabuXiabu門店，並在23年上半年增加89家新開門店，全年目標爲140家新門店，比最初預期的120家門店多出20家。
Shaohot: lower store unit target. In September 2022, the company launched a new brand "Shaohot" which focuses on offering delicious roasted meat products. Focusing on the middle and high-end consumer groups, Shaohot upholds the concept of "roasted meat + beverage and tea + joy". In 2H23, the company plans to open 6 new stores in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou, and adding the 1 newly opened store in 1H23, full year target 7 new stores is 13 less than the original expectation of 20 stores.
Shaohot：降低商店單位目標。2022年9月，該公司推出了一個新品牌 “Shaohot”，專注於提供美味的烤肉產品。Shaohot聚焦中高端消費羣體，秉承 “烤肉+飲料+茶+歡樂” 的理念。該公司計劃在23年下半年在北京、上海、廣州、深圳和杭州開設6家新門店，並在23年上半年增加1家新開門店，全年目標7家新門店比最初預期的20家門店少13家。
International Business Department. Aside from expansion into Hong Kong in 2019, Coucou has showcased its international expansion footprint by opening its first restaurant in Singapore at the beginning of 2022. Xiabuxiabu brand has opened its first overseas restaurant in Singapore in January 2023. The company has established the International Business Department on 1 January 2023. In 2H23, the company plans to open 8 new overseas stores, and adding the 1 newly opened store in 1H23, full year target 9 new stores is 17 less than the original expectation of 26 stores.
國際業務部。除了在2019年向香港擴張外，Coucou還於2022年初在新加坡開設了第一家餐廳，展示了其國際擴張足跡。Siabuxiabu 品牌已於 2023 年 1 月在新加坡開設了第一家海外餐廳。該公司已於2023年1月1日成立了國際業務部。該公司計劃在23年下半年開設8家新的海外門店，並在23年上半年增加1家新開門店，全年目標爲9家新門店，比最初預期的26家門店少17家。
Downgrade rating from Buy to Outperform. We like the growth potential of Coucou, and the catalysts from the new store opening of Xiabuxiabu brand and the new barbecue brand, but await for the improvement of same-store-sales and margin. We lower target price from HK$8 to HK$4.7, and with 19% upside potential, we downgrade rating from Buy to Outperform.
將評級從 “買入” 下調至 “跑贏大盤”。我們喜歡Coucou的增長潛力，以及Xiabuxiabu品牌新店開業和新的燒烤品牌帶來的催化劑，但我們正在等待同店銷售額和利潤率的改善。我們將目標價從8港元下調至4.7港元，鑑於上行潛力爲19％，我們將評級從買入下調至跑贏大盤。
Risks: Slower-than-expected store openings; slower-than-expected same-store growth.
風險：門店開業低於預期；同店增長低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
