CHINA CRSC(03969.HK):NEWLY-SIGNED ORDERS REMAINED GROWTH "ACCUMULATE"
CHINA CRSC(03969.HK):NEWLY-SIGNED ORDERS REMAINED GROWTH "ACCUMULATE"
We maintain "Accumulate" and TP of HK$4.08. We reduce our China CRSC's (the "Company") 2023-2025 shareholders' net profit to RMB3,901 mn (-4.6%) / RMB4,290 mn (-8.2%) / RMB 4,760 mn (-8.1%), respectively.We forecast the Company's earnings per share in 2023/ 2024/ 2025 to be RMB0.360, RMB0.396, and RMB0.441, respectively. Our TP represents 10.0x/ 9.1x/ 8.1x 2023-2025 PE ratio and 0.8x 2023 PB ratio.
我們維持 “累計” 和目標價爲4.08港元。我們將中國CRSC（“公司”）2023-2025年的股東淨利潤分別降至39.01億元人民幣（-4.6％）/42.9億元人民幣（-8.2％）/47.6億元人民幣（-8.1％）。我們預計公司2023年/2024/2025年的每股收益爲人民幣0.360元、0.396元人民幣和0.441元人民幣，分別地。我們的目標爲2023-2025年的10.0倍/9.1x/8.1倍的市盈率和0.8倍的2023年市盈率。
The Company' revenue decreased with gross profit margin increased in 1H23. The Company's revenue in 1H23 was RMB 16.63 billion, a decrease of 9.52% YoY, mainly due to the decrease in revenue from construction projects. The Company's gross margin increased 1.8 ppts to 25.0% in 1H23.
公司收入下降，毛利率在上半年有所提高。該公司23年上半年的收入爲166.3億元人民幣，同比下降9.52％，這主要是由於建築項目收入的減少。該公司的毛利率在23年上半年增長了1.8個百分點至25.0％。
The Company's shareholders' net profit was down 5.7% YoY to RMB1,824 mn. We believe that the Company's gross profit margin may maintain at its current level in 2H23.
公司股東淨利潤同比下降5.7％，至人民幣18.24億元。我們認爲，該公司的毛利率可能會在23年下半年維持在目前的水平。
The Company's newly-signed orders increased. In 1H23, the aggregate value of newly-signed orders of the Company amounted to RMB31.67 billion, representing an increase of 10.49% YoY, among which, the value of newly-signed orders in railway sector amounted to RMB9.78 billion, representing an increase of 30.15% YoY; the value of newly-signed orders in urban transit sector amounted to RMB5.85 billion, representing a decrease of 9.57% YoY. The increase in new orders will ensure revenue growth for the Company in the next two years. The Company's order cycle is about 3 years, and 97% of the sales will be recognized as revenue in about 2 years. As China rail passenger traffic has been improving significantly, we believe that new orders of the Company will maintain rapid growth. Therefore, we expect that optimistic growth of new orders may be reflected in revenue growth in 2024 and 2025.
該公司新簽署的訂單有所增加。23年上半年，公司新簽訂單總額爲人民幣316.7億元，同比增長10.49％，其中，鐵路行業新簽訂單金額爲人民幣97.8億元，同比增長30.15％；城市交通領域新簽訂單金額爲人民幣58.5億元，同比下降9.57％。新訂單的增加將確保公司未來兩年的收入增長。該公司的訂單週期約爲3年，97％的銷售額將在大約2年後確認爲收入。隨着中國鐵路客運量的顯著改善，我們相信公司的新訂單將保持快速增長。因此，我們預計，新訂單的樂觀增長可能會反映在2024年和2025年的收入增長中。
The Company performed well in overseas markets. The Company's revenue from overseas business in 1H23 was RMB 586 million, increased by 6.59% YoY, mainly because the Company continued to push forward the progress of overseas projects, such as the Novi Sad-Subotica section of the Hungary-Serbia Railway and the Jakarta-Bandung High-speed Railway.
該公司在海外市場表現良好。公司23年上半年的海外業務收入爲人民幣5.86億元，同比增長6.59％，這主要是因爲公司繼續推進海外項目的進展，例如匈牙利-塞爾維亞鐵路的諾維薩德-蘇博蒂察段和雅加達-萬隆高速鐵路。
Besides, the value of newly-signed orders in overseas sector amounted to RMB1,384 million, representing an increase of 2,390.11% YoY. Although the proportion of overseas business revenue is small, we believe that as more and more overseas projects complete, the Company's overseas revenue will continue to grow rapidly.
此外，海外部門新簽訂單金額爲人民幣13.84億元，同比增長2,390.11％。儘管海外業務收入的比例很小，但我們相信，隨着越來越多的海外項目完成，公司的海外收入將繼續快速增長。
Risks: Intensified competition in the industry; insufficient overseas demand; unexpected price movement in raw materials.
風險：行業競爭加劇；海外需求不足；原材料價格意外變動。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。