YONGDA AUTOMOBILES(3669.HK):NEW-CAR GPM MAY BOTTOM OUT IN 2H23E
YONGDA AUTOMOBILES(3669.HK):NEW-CAR GPM MAY BOTTOM OUT IN 2H23E
Maintain BUY. Yongda's 1H23 net profit fell 40% YoY to RMB 407mn, slightly lower than our prior forecast but higher than some investors' pessimistic expectation. Yongda's 1H23 earnings YoY decline was between Zhongsheng (881 HK, NR) and Meidong (1268 HK, HOLD). We expect Yongda's new-car GPM to improve slightly HoH. We see meaningful earnings upside potential, should Yongda be more aggressive on cost reduction. In addition, the company announced interim dividends for the first time with a payout ratio of 50% (vs. 40% for prior final dividends), resulting in a yield of 7.3% now.
維持買入。永達23年上半年的淨利潤同比下降40％，至4.07億元人民幣，略低於我們之前的預測，但高於一些投資者的悲觀預期。永達23年上半年收益同比下降幅度介於中盛（881 HK，NR）和美東（1268 HK，HOLD）之間。我們預計永達的新車GPM將略有改善HoH。如果永達在降低成本方面更加積極，我們就會看到可觀的收益上行潛力。此外，該公司首次宣佈中期分紅，派息率爲50％（而之前的末期股息爲40％），現在的收益率爲7.3％。
New-car GPM all-time low in 1H23. Yongda's 1H23 revenue was 4% higher than our prior forecast, due to higher average selling prices. However, its GPM of 7.5% was 0.6 ppt lower than our expectation, mainly due to lower new-car GPM of only 0.5% in 1H23. Its SG&A expenses were higher than our forecast by RMB 225mn, which was offset by higher other income in 1H23. Excluding extraordinary items related to the disposal of a 60% stake at a BMW 4S store, its other income in 1H23 was RMB 136mn higher than our prior forecast due to higher-than-expected auto finance commission income. Yongda's 1H23 net profit of RMB 407mn was lower than our estimates by RMB 39mn.
新車GPM在23年上半年創歷史新低。由於平均銷售價格上漲，永達23年上半年的收入比我們之前的預測高出4％。但是，其7.5％的GPM比我們的預期低0.6個百分點，這主要是由於23年上半年新車GPM僅下降了0.5％。其銷售和收購支出比我們的預測高出2.25億元人民幣，但被23年上半年其他收入的增加所抵消。不包括與出售寶馬4S店60％股份相關的特別項目，由於汽車融資佣金收入高於預期，其23年上半年的其他收入比我們之前的預測高出1.36億元人民幣。永達23年上半年的淨利潤爲人民幣4.07億元，比我們的預期低3900萬元人民幣。
Porsche to improve, BMW likely stable and cost control still the key to profitability. We project Porsche's new-car GPM at Yongda to lift 1.6 ppts HoH in 2H23, as Porsche has decided to cut full-year target by about 10%. We see an improving product mix for BMW, but it still heavily relies on subsidies in 2H23. Therefore, we expect 2H23 new-car GPM to improve slightly HoH to 0.6%. As the net margin fell to below 2% with deteriorated new- car GP, the company's profitability becomes more sensitive to cost control. We project SG&A ratio to be lowered by 0.2 ppt HoH and therefore forecast 2H23E net profit to rise 16% HoH to RMB 470mn.
保時捷有待改善，寶馬可能保持穩定，成本控制仍然是盈利的關鍵。我們預計保時捷在永達的新車GPM將在23年下半年提高1.6個百分點HoH，因爲保時捷已決定將全年目標下調約10％。我們看到寶馬的產品組合有所改善，但它仍然嚴重依賴於23年下半年的補貼。因此，我們預計23年下半年新車GPM將略有提高HoH至0.6％。隨着新車GP的惡化，淨利潤率降至2％以下，該公司的盈利能力對成本控制變得更加敏感。我們預計銷售和收購比率將降低0.2個百分點，因此預測 2H23E 的淨利潤將增長16％，至4.7億元人民幣。
Valuation/Key risks. We project Yongda's net profit to rise 40% YoY to RMB 1.2bn in FY24E, amid higher revenue contribution from after-sales services, more diversified income and probably more rational sales targets from OEMs. We maintain our BUY rating but cut target price from HK$ 6.50 to HK$ 5.00, still based on 7x our revised FY24E P/E. Key risks to our rating and TP include lower sales and/or margins, slower after-sales service recovery than our expectation, as well as a sector de-rating.
估值/關鍵風險。我們預計，在 FY24E 中，永達的淨利潤將同比增長40％，至人民幣12億元人民幣，原因是售後服務的收入貢獻增加，收入更加多元化，整車廠的銷售目標可能更加理性。我們維持買入評級，但仍將目標價從6.50港元下調至5.00港元，仍基於我們修訂後的 FY24E 市盈率的7倍。我們的評級和目標價的主要風險包括銷售額和/或利潤率降低、售後服務復甦速度低於我們的預期，以及行業評級下調。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。