Event: the company released the 2023 China report.
The revenue side of 2023H1 accelerated to confirm that on-hand orders are still sufficient. 2023H1 achieved operating income of 1.7 billion yuan, + 72% year-on-year, falling in the median range of performance forecast (16.50-1.74 billion yuan), of which Q2 operating income was 934 million yuan, + 52% year-on-year, the growth rate slowed down. At the end of 2022, the company's on-hand orders were about 4.531 billion yuan (including tax), an increase of 32.40% over the same period last year. Related newly signed orders were delivered and revenue was confirmed one after another, which is the core driving force for 2023H1's revenue side to achieve rapid growth. Newly signed unilaterally, the order in hand at the end of 2023H1 is about 4.6 billion yuan (including tax), + 3.24% compared with the same period last year, and the contract debt is 1.993 billion yuan, an increase of 15.83% over the beginning of 2023.
The company's orders on hand are still full, laying a solid foundation for performance growth in the second half of the year.
During the period, the expense rate decreased significantly, and the 2023H1 net interest rate significantly increased 2023H1's net profit of 199 million yuan, + 184% compared with the same period last year, falling in the median range of performance forecast (1.95-205 million yuan). The realization of deducting non-return net profit of 179 million yuan, + 188% compared with the same period last year, also fell in the median range of performance forecast (1.75-185 million yuan). The net profit rate of 2023H1 sales and the net interest rate of deducting non-sales are 11.70% and 10.50% respectively, which is significantly higher than that of + 4.58pct and + 4.23pct, respectively. 1) Gross profit margin: the gross profit margin of 2023H1 sales is 35.65%, which is slightly lower than that of-1.26pct. 2) expense side: the expense rate during the 2023H1 period is 24.20%, year-on-year-5.86pct, which reflects the scale effect, in which the sales, management, R & D and financial expense rates are-0.96,5.80,+ 0.93 and-0.03pct respectively compared with the same period last year. The management expense rate decreased significantly, which is the main driving force for the increase in the expense rate during the period.
Long-term benefit from the wave of lithium power expansion, horizontal expansion opens the growth space 1) Lithium: we expect the global power battery laser welding equipment market to reach 35.4 billion yuan in 2025, and the demand for welding equipment for 4680 batteries is on the rise. it is expected to become an important growth point.
The company is deeply bound to the Ningde era, second and third line customers also have important breakthroughs, will fully benefit from the downstream large-scale expansion. In addition, the demand for energy storage is expanding rapidly, and the proportion of 2022Q1-Q3 's energy storage business in lithium power business has increased from 10% in previous years to more than 20%, contributing a new increase. 2) non-lithium battery: (1) Automobile: under the background of lightweight and intelligence, the advantage of laser welding technology will become increasingly prominent. Relying on the technology and customer resources accumulated in the field of power battery, the company has a strong first-mover advantage. (2) Consumer electronics: small steel shell battery welding equipment has been shipped in small quantities, and there is more room for growth in the future. (3) Photovoltaic: the company actively arranges the development of P1-P2-P3-P4 perovskite cell laser etching process, as well as TOPCON laser film opening, laser SE, laser oxidation and other equipment to further open the growth space.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the slowdown in the growth rate of power battery production expansion, we carefully adjust the company's parent net profit forecast for 2023-2025 to 4.93,6.83 and 873 million yuan respectively (the original value is 5.04,7.31 and 938 million yuan), and the current market capitalization corresponds to dynamic PE of 16,11 and 9 times respectively. The company is based on the lithium industry, horizontally expand consumer electronics, automotive, photovoltaic, hydrogen fuel and other fields, platform extension growth is more prominent, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the expansion of power battery industry is not as expected, the market competition is intensified and so on.