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INTRON TECH(1760.HK):1H23 RESULTS BELOW; EXPECT BACK-LOADED IN 2H23E

INTRON TECH(1760.HK):1H23 RESULTS BELOW; EXPECT BACK-LOADED IN 2H23E

INTRON TECH (1760.HK): 1H23 業績下方;預計下半年將回調
招银国际 ·  2023/08/25 20:02

Intron Tech's 1H23 revenue of RMB 2.63bn (+26.5% YoY) was slightly below our expectation, while attributable net income of RMB 154mn (+1.2% YoY) was 19% below our estimate mainly due to weaker cloud server segment, weaker gross margin and significant increase in R&D expense. Mgmt. attributed higher R&D expense to talent recruitment and software/equipment acquirements, and expected gradually normalized R&D spending towards 2H23/FY24E. Overall, we are positive on 2H23E earnings recovery driven by traditional peak season, normalised R&D spending and new product shipment. We trimmed FY23-25E EPS by 9-17% to factor in 1H23 results and lower margins. Trading at 6.3x/5.1x FY23/24E P/E, we think risk-reward is attractive compared with A/H share peers. Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$ 6.37. Upcoming catalysts include rising ADAS penetration and NEV client share gain.

英恒科技23年上半年收入爲人民幣26.3億元(同比增長26.5%),略低於我們的預期,而1.54億元人民幣(同比增長1.2%)的應占淨收入比我們的預期低19%,這主要是由於雲服務器板塊疲軟、毛利率下降以及研發費用大幅增加。Mgmt. 將較高的研發支出歸因於人才招聘和軟件/設備收購,並預計研發支出將在下半年/24財年逐步正常化。總體而言,我們對傳統旺季、正常化的研發支出和新產品出貨推動的 2H23E 收益復甦持樂觀態度。我們將 FY23-25E 每股收益下調了9-17%,以考慮到 23 年上半年的業績和較低的利潤率。我們認爲,與A/H股同行相比,風險回報率爲6.3倍/5.1倍,我們認爲風險回報具有吸引力。維持買入,新目標價爲6.37港元。即將到來的催化劑包括ADAS滲透率的提高和新能源汽車客戶份額的增長。

1H23 higher R&D expense offsetting strong NEV growth. By segment, new energy/body control/safety/powertrain/automation & connectivity/cloud server revenue delivered +58%/-3.2%/+43%/+41%/+118%/-71% YoY growth. Intron reported solid new energy segment growth despite industry headwinds, driven by increasing client penetration and share gain on new projects. Cloud server weakness was due to shrinking demand from key customers and server market destocking. 1H23 net income of RMB 154mn (+1.2% YoY) missed our estimate by 19%, mainly due to significant increase in R&D expense ratio to 8.9% (vs. 7.0% in 1H22). Mgmt. stated higher R&D expense was due to talent acquisition and software/testing equipment purchase, and expected gradual normalizing of R&D expense in 2H23E. 1H23 GPM of 20.6% (vs. 21.6% in 1H22) was attributed to FX impact and price pressure from OEM customers. Mgmt. expected margin expansion upside from cost reduction and upstream price negotiation in 2H23E.

上半年研發支出增加抵消了新能源汽車的強勁增長。按細分市場劃分,新能源/車身控制/安全/動力總成/自動化與連接/雲服務器收入同比增長+58%/-3.2%/+43%/+41%/+118%/-71%。英恒報告稱,在客戶滲透率提高和新項目份額增長的推動下,儘管存在行業不利因素,但新能源板塊仍實現穩健增長。雲服務器疲軟是由於主要客戶需求萎縮和服務器市場庫存減少所致。23年上半年淨收入爲人民幣1.54億元(同比增長1.2%),比我們的預期低19%,這主要是由於研發費用比率大幅上升至8.9%(而上半年爲7.0%)。Mgmt. 表示,研發費用增加是由於人才招聘和軟件/測試設備採購,預計研發費用在 2H23E 將逐步正常化。23年上半年GPM爲20.6%(而上半年爲21.6%),這歸因於外匯影響和來自原始設備製造商客戶的價格壓力。Mgmt. 預計,在 2H23E 中,成本削減和上游價格談判將帶來利潤擴張的上行空間。

2H23E Outlook: back-loaded revenue in 2H23E with margin recovery.

2H23E 展望:隨着利潤率的回升,2H23E 的收入有所回落。

We expect Intron's topline to be back-loaded in 2H23E driven by traditional seasonality and new product ramp-up, and we expect moderate impact from downstream auto OEM price competition and de-spec trend. We think the hike in R&D expense in 1H23 will gradually normalize in 2H23E. Overall, we estimate revenue/net profit growth of 33%/35% YoY in 2H23E.

我們預計,在傳統的季節性和新產品增長的推動下,英恒的收入將在 2H23E 中回調,我們預計下游汽車原始設備製造商的價格競爭和不合格趨勢將產生適度的影響。我們認爲,在 2H23E 中,23年上半年研發費用的上漲將逐漸恢復正常。總體而言,我們估計 2H23E 的收入/淨利潤同比增長33%/35%。

Attractive risk/reward, reiterate BUY. We trimmed FY23-25E EPS by 9-17% mainly to reflect higher R&D expenses and weaker 1H23 earnings. Our new TP of HK$6.37 is based on same 12x FY23E P/E (24% below 5-year hist. avg.). Trading at 6.3x/5.1x FY23/24E P/E, we think risk-reward is attractive especially compared with A/H share peers.

有吸引力的風險/回報,重申買入。我們將 FY23-25E 每股收益下調了9-17%,主要是爲了反映研發費用增加和23年上半年收益疲軟。我們的新目標價爲6.37港元,基於 FY23E 市盈率的12倍(比5年曆史平均水平低24%)。我們認爲風險回報的市盈率爲6.3倍/5.1倍,特別是與A/H股同行相比,風險回報具有吸引力。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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