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FRXI: LANXESS MOU Validates Nofia's Market Potential

FRXI: LANXESS MOU Validates Nofia's Market Potential

FRXI:朗盛諒解備忘錄證實了Nofia的市場潛力
Greenridge Global ·  2023/08/24 09:34  · 研報

MOU With LANXESS.  Yesterday, the Company announced it signed a MOU with LANXESS [XETR: LXS] covering three key areas, including the potential for LANXESS to become a contract manufacturer of Nofia, LANXESS to potentially produce the raw material for Nofia, and the potential for LANXESS to market Nofia into specific sectors or regions.  The MOU is significant for a number of reasons, first of which is that a key player in the global flame retardant space has declared that Nofia has the potential to “capture considerable growth” in the market. Specific to the MOU, LANXESS as a raw material producer and Nofia contract manufacturer could provide a low-cost, shareholder-friendly alternative to raising capital and building out new plants while providing better security for its supply chain.  Additionally, LANXESS marketing Nofia would provide immediate access to its current customers who buy its phosphorus and brominated flame retardants, as well as provide a new product for it to market where it currently only has brominated solutions, like ABS and engineered plastics. With the new electronic enclosures regulations set to go in effect shortly, this could be a valuable product for LANXESS to market to both maintain and win market share.  Given the need by LANXESS to find a product like Nofia in the next year to keep up with the regulatory changes, we expect the two parties will ultimately come to some kind of formal agreement that provides LANXESS with the ability to maintain and win market share and FRX the ability to rapidly and cost-effectively scale its customer base and operations.  

與朗盛的諒解備忘錄昨天,公司宣佈與朗盛 [XETR: LXS] 簽署了涵蓋三個關鍵領域的諒解備忘錄,包括朗盛有可能成爲Nofia的合同製造商,朗盛有可能爲Nofia生產原材料,以及朗盛有可能向特定行業或地區銷售Nofia。諒解備忘錄意義重大,原因有很多,首先是全球阻燃劑領域的一家關鍵參與者宣佈,Nofia有潛力在市場 “實現可觀的增長”。就諒解備忘錄而言,作爲原材料生產商和Nofia合同製造商,朗盛可以提供一種低成本、對股東友好的替代方案,以此來籌集資金和建造新工廠,同時爲其供應鏈提供更好的安全保障。此外,朗盛營銷部門Nofia將爲購買其磷和溴化阻燃劑的現有客戶提供即時渠道,併爲其提供一種新產品,將其推向目前僅提供溴化溶液(例如ABS和工程塑料)的市場。隨着新的電子外殼法規即將生效,這可能是朗盛在市場上保持和贏得市場份額的有價值的產品。鑑於朗盛需要在明年找到像Nofia這樣的產品來跟上監管變化的步伐,我們預計雙方最終將達成某種正式協議,使朗盛能夠維持和贏得市場份額,使FRX能夠快速而經濟地擴大其客戶群和運營。

Q2:23 Results Expected.  FRX is expected to release its second quarter results next week.

第 2:23 季度業績預期預計FRX將在下週公佈其第二季度業績。

Model Update.  As the LANXESS announcement is only at the MOU stage, we have refrained from making any adjustments to our model, but note a formal deal that covers all three areas could alter our model in a positive way.

模型更新。由於朗盛的宣佈僅處於諒解備忘錄階段,因此我們沒有對我們的模式進行任何調整,但請注意,涵蓋所有三個領域的正式協議可能會對我們的模式產生積極的改變。

Maintaining Rating & Target Price
The MOU with LANXESS is significant for a number of reasons, but ultimately to have the full impact a formal agreement will need to be signed in the near future.  However, with the validation of Nofia’s potential in the market from a market leader we feel even more confident about Nofia’s potential in the short-term and long-term.  With continued optimism, we are reiterating our Buy rating and C$0.75 target price on FRX Innovations. Our target price is based on a mix of an EV/EBITDA multiple of roughly 10 times our 2025 EBITDA estimate of $6.8 million and a P/E multiple of 20 times our 2025 Diluted EPS estimate of $0.04, both discounted back one year at 20%.

維持評級和目標價格
與朗盛的諒解備忘錄意義重大,原因有很多,但要最終產生全面影響,還需要在不久的將來簽署正式協議。但是,隨着市場領導者對Nofia在市場上的潛力的驗證,我們對Nofia在短期和長期內的潛力更加有信心。在持續樂觀的情況下,我們重申了對FRX Innovations的買入評級和0.75加元的目標價。我們的目標價格是基於EV/EBITDA的倍數,大約是我們2025年息稅折舊攤銷前利潤估計值680萬美元的10倍,以及20倍的2025年攤薄後每股收益估計值0.04美元的市盈倍數,兩者均按20%折現了一年。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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