Events:
The company released the 2023 China report. 23H1 achieved revenue of 248 million yuan, an increase of 37.31% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 30.2468 million yuan, down 44.58% from the same period last year. The comments are as follows:
Revenue is in line with expectations, and the profit side is under pressure. In terms of business, the company's revenue from intelligent equipment business increased by 7.1% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year, and revenue from intelligent systems and instruments business increased by 114.4%, which was the main source of revenue growth in the first half of the year. The expense rate of each period of the company remains stable compared with the same period last year, and the decline in profit is mainly affected by three aspects: 1) the decline in gross profit margin. The gross profit margin of 23H1 was 45.18%, down 10.78pct from the same period last year. The decline is partly due to the decline in the gross profit margin of intelligent equipment affected by industry competition, and partly due to the obvious increase in the proportion of intelligent businesses with low gross profit margin of 23H1.
2) the government subsidy is reduced. 23H1 government subsidy decreased by about 16 million yuan compared with the same period last year; 3) impairment. 23H1 credit impairment and asset impairment increased by about 7 million yuan compared with the same period last year.
Attach importance to research and development, push through the old and bring forth the new, and achieve breakthroughs in overseas markets. In the first half of the year, the company's characteristic product TGS intelligent ladder dry separator third-generation machine system has realized self-research on the core components, the comprehensive cost has been greatly reduced (about 15%), the processing capacity has been increased by 1.5 to 2.0 times, the treatment particle size has been further expanded to 80~3mm, and the separation accuracy has been further improved. in addition, the company has made good progress in fine wet separation, solid waste resource separation and recovery, instrumentation and intelligence. The MDS intelligent fine particle dry separator independently developed by the company in the field of non-coal mineral separation was signed in the first half of 2023.
In addition, the company began to develop overseas markets in 2023 and successfully won smart equipment business orders from Mongolia in the first half of the year, achieving a breakthrough in overseas business.
Sufficient orders on hand, issue a draft of equity incentive. By the end of the first half of 2023, the total amount of orders made by the company was about 697 million yuan, including 443 million yuan for intelligent equipment, 160 million yuan for intelligent systems and instruments, and 94 million yuan for other business orders. The company issued the 2023 restricted Stock incentive Plan (draft), which aims at revenue. Compared with the growth rate in 2022, the target for revenue growth in 2023-2025 is 47.16%, 75.77% and 120.73%, respectively, and the trigger value is 32.85%, 53.70% and 92.12%, respectively. The company has plenty of orders on hand, the IPO investment project is progressing steadily, and the release of the first equity incentive plan demonstrates the company's long-term development confidence.
Profit forecast: due to the pressure on the profit side of the company, the profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 1.41,1.83 and 235 million yuan respectively (the previous value is 165 million yuan, 215 million yuan and 286 million yuan), and the corresponding PE value is 19, 15 and 12 times. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: new business development falls short of expectations; profit forecast and valuation models fail