AK MEDICAL(1789.HK):SOLID GROWTH DRIVEN BY INCREASING NON-VBP SALES
AK MEDICAL(1789.HK):SOLID GROWTH DRIVEN BY INCREASING NON-VBP SALES
1H23 earnings was in line with CMBI and consensus estimates. AK Medical reported 1H23 revenue of RMB648.7mn, up 22.1% YoY, primarily driven by the significant revenue growth of knee replacement implants and non-VBP products.Gross profit was RMB338.5mn, up 9.8% YoY. Gross profit margin fell 1.8 ppts to 61.9% (vs. 63.7% in 1H22) due to the implementation of national VBP of joint implants since April 2022. Attributable net profit was RMB132.6mn, up 5.2% YoY, and the attributable net profit margin dropped by 3.3 ppts to 20.4% in 1H23 (vs. 23.7% in 1H22) mainly due to the lower GPM and increased administrative expense rate (11.6% in 1H23 vs. 10.3% in 1H22).
23年上半年的收益與招銀國際指數和市場普遍預期一致。AK Medical報告稱，23年上半年收入爲人民幣6.487億元，同比增長22.1％，這主要是由於膝關節置換植入物和非VBP產品的收入大幅增長。毛利爲3.385億元人民幣，同比增長9.8％。毛利率下降1.8個百分點至61.9％（上半年爲63.7％），這是由於自2022年4月以來實施了全國關節植入物VBP。應占淨利潤爲人民幣1.326億元，同比增長5.2％，應占淨利潤率下降3.3個百分點至20.4％（上半年爲23.7％），這主要是由於GPM降低和管理費用率上升（23年上半年爲11.6％，而22年上半年爲10.3％）。
Robust growth in knee replacement implants. Thanks to the sustained market share gain from foreign brands after the national joint VBP and the orthopedic surgery demand recovery, sales volume of the primary knee system increased by 107% YoY. Sales of knee unicondyle replacement system, which is a new partial knee product approved in July 2022, reached RMB33.8mn in 1H23. As a result, AK Medical's revenue from knee replacement implants surged by 64.7% YoY to RMB211.0mn in 1H23.
膝關節置換植入物增長強勁。得益於國外品牌在全國關節VBP之後市場份額的持續增長以及骨科手術需求的恢復，初級膝蓋系統的銷量同比增長了107％。膝蓋單節置換系統是2022年7月批准的新型膝關節局部產品，其銷售額在23年上半年達到3,380萬元人民幣。因此，AK Medical的膝關節置換植入物收入在23年上半年同比激增64.7％，至2.11億元人民幣。
Moreover, AK Medical continued to penetrate into higher-tier hospitals.Approximately 16% of the implant volumes occurred in provincial hospitals in 1H23, up from 10% in 1H22. We expect this trend will further drive the strong sales growth of knee replacement implants in coming years.
此外，AK Medical繼續滲透到更高級別的醫院。大約16％的植入量發生在23年上半年的省級醫院，高於22年上半年的10％。我們預計，這一趨勢將進一步推動未來幾年膝關節置換植入物的強勁銷售增長。
Improved revenue mix with increasing proportion of revenue from high-margin non-VBP products. AK Medical has a comprehensive orthopedic implants portfolios including various products that are safe from VBP such as revision and reconstruction products, 3D-printed spinal implants, partial knee products and customized products (ICOS) etc. The domestic sales of revision products grew by over 60% YoY in 1H23, contributing 26% of the Company's total domestic revenue. The ICOS products realized RMB27.8mn of sales with four NMPA-approved 3D- printing customized products and 62 customized products filings with cooperating hospitals, up 31.5% YoY in 1H23. As a result, 48% of the domestic revenue was from the non-VBP products in 1H23, compared to approximately 36% in 1H22. Besides, the overseas market continued strong growth momentum and the overseas revenue increased by 78.3% YoY to RMB113.5mn in 1H23. Thus, we think 56.8% of AK Medical's total revenue was not VBP-relevant while contributed higher margin than VBP products.
收入組合得到改善，來自高利潤非VBP產品的收入比例不斷提高。AK Medical擁有全面的骨科植入物產品組合，包括各種免受VBP影響的產品，例如修復和重建產品、3D打印脊柱植入物、部分膝蓋產品和定製產品（ICOS）等。23年上半年，修復產品的國內銷售同比增長60％以上，佔公司國內總收入的26％。ICOS產品實現了2780萬元人民幣的銷售額，其中四款獲得NMPA批准的3D打印定製產品以及向合作醫院提交的62份定製產品備案，在23年上半年同比增長31.5％。因此，在23年上半年，48％的國內收入來自非VBP產品，而22年上半年的這一比例約爲36％。此外，海外市場繼續保持強勁增長勢頭，海外收入同比增長78.3％，至23年上半年人民幣1.135億元。因此，我們認爲AK Medical總收入中有56.8％與VBP無關，但貢獻的利潤率高於VBP產品。
Valuation/Key risks. To factor in the challenging business environment in China, we revised our TP to HK$8.46 based on a 9-year DCF model (WACC: 11.08%, terminal growth rate: 2.0%).
估值/關鍵風險。考慮到中國充滿挑戰的商業環境，我們將目標價調整爲8.46港元，基於9年期DCF模型（WACC：11.08％，終端增長率：2.0％）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。