Former Fed President Bullard Dismisses Recession Alarms, Foresees Possible Rate Hikes
Former Fed President Bullard Dismisses Recession Alarms, Foresees Possible Rate Hikes
In an exclusive interview with the Wall Street Journal ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole annual economic symposium, former St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard spoke about the U.S. economy's unexpected resilience and the potential for higher interest rates.
在美聯儲傑克森霍爾年度經濟研討會之前接受《華爾街日報》獨家專訪時，前聖路易斯聯儲主席詹姆斯·布拉德談到了美國經濟出人意料的彈性和加息的可能性。
Bullard, who recently assumed the position of Dean at Purdue University's Daniels School of Business, told WSJ's Nick Timiraos that predictions of an impending recession have been "blown out of the water."
布拉德最近在普渡大學丹尼爾斯商學院擔任院長一職，他告訴《華爾街日報》尼克·蒂米拉奧斯有關經濟衰退即將到來的預測已被“吹出水面”。
Bullard dismissed exaggerated recession predictions, emphasizing that the risks were not as dire as some on Wall Street believed.
布拉德駁斥了誇大的衰退預測，強調風險並不像華爾街一些人認為的那樣可怕。
Bullard's analysis revealed that the U.S. economy's performance has far exceeded the expectations set earlier this year.
布拉德的分析顯示，美國經濟的表現遠遠超出了今年早些時候設定的預期。
With unemployment at 3.5%, Bullard lauded the Federal Reserve's success in taming inflation—reducing headline CPI inflation from 9% to slightly over 3%.
在失業率為3.5%的情況下，布拉德稱讚美聯儲成功地將整體CPI通脹率從9%降至略高於3%。
When comparing the Fed's current tightening cycle to that of the 1970s, Bullard told WSJ: "This time we reacted more appropriately and more effectively, and now we're getting the fruits of that by getting inflation down."
在將美聯儲當前的緊縮週期與上世紀70年代的週期進行比較時，布拉德告訴《華爾街日報》：“這一次我們的反應更恰當、更有效，現在我們通過壓低通脹取得了成果。”
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Navigating Uncharted Waters: Balancing Growth and Inflation
航行未知水域：平衡增長和通脹
Bullard emphasized that the pace of economic expansion, which was not initially anticipated, could necessitate further interest rate hikes. He cautioned that markets aren't "really ready for that."
布拉德強調，經濟擴張的速度可能需要進一步加息，這是最初沒有預料到的。他警告說，市場還沒有“真正為此做好準備”。
He further emphasized the tight labor market and the U.S. economy's reacceleration, suggesting that inflation might not decrease as quickly as previously expected.
他進一步強調了緊張的勞動力市場和美國經濟的重新加速，暗示通脹可能不會像之前預期的那樣迅速下降。
Regarding a return to the pre-pandemic era of low interest rates and inflation, Bullard expressed skepticism.
對於回到大流行前的低利率和低通脹時代，布拉德表示懷疑。
As inflation remains above target, Bullard hinted at the likelihood of a prolonged period of slightly higher interest rates, signaling a shift from the low-rate regime that persisted since 2008.
由於通脹率仍高於目標水準，布拉德暗示，利率可能會在較長一段時間內略有上升，這標誌著自2008年以來一直存在的低利率制度的轉變。
According to Fed futures, markets are currently pricing in a 13.5% chance of a rate hike in September and a 35% chance of a hike by November's FOMC meeting. The yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury note, also tracked by the US Treasury Note ETF (NYSE:UTWO), traded around 5% on Wednesday.
根據美聯儲的預測，市場目前預計9月份加息的可能性為13.5%，11月份聯盟公開市場委員會會議加息的可能性為35%。美國2年期國債收益率，也是由美國國債ETF(紐約證券交易所股票代碼：UTWO)，週三交易價格約為5%。
Chart: US Interest Rates Recently Outpaced Inflation
圖表：美國利率近期跑贏通脹
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
這些內容部分是在人工智慧工具的幫助下製作的，並由Benzinga編輯進行了審查和發佈。
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Photo: commons.wikimedia.org and Shutterstock
圖片來源：Commons.wikimedia.org和Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。