Events:
The company released the mid-2023 report that the income in the first half of 2023 was 176 million yuan,-26.57% compared with the same period last year; the net profit of returning to the mother was 48.82 million yuan, which was-42.01% of the same period last year; and the net profit of non-return was 36.84 million yuan, which was-55.28% of the same period last year.
The income of Q2 alone is 80.98 million yuan,-28.43% compared with the same period last year; the net profit of returning to the mother is 19.36 million yuan, which is-54.44% compared with the same period last year; and the net profit of non-return is 16.48 million yuan.
Core ideas:
Performance short-term pressure, lithium diaphragm production line delivery is smooth, waiting for customer verification. Oke Technology is the leader of domestic household paper equipment, cut into lithium diaphragm equipment by virtue of technical commonality, and signed the first diaphragm production line order with Jiujiang Guanli to carry out in-depth cooperation. The decline in revenue in the first half of 2023 was mainly due to the smooth delivery of orders for lithium diaphragm production lines, the company's production capacity tilted to lithium diaphragm production lines, and fewer orders for traditional household paper equipment. Looking forward to the second half of the year, with the delivery of lithium diaphragm orders and the release of production capacity, it is expected to open up the company's growth space.
The gross profit margin has declined, and the cost control is better.
2023H1 gross profit margin 37.34%, year-on-year-12.92pct, net profit rate 27.81%, year-on-year-7.4pct.
The decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to the change in the structure of ① products and the increase in the proportion of income from low-margin film packaging materials; ② is affected by customer price reduction, and the gross profit margin of household paper equipment has declined 7.6pct. On the expense side, the company's expense control is better, the expense rate during the 2023H1 period is 12.96%, year-on-year-0.19pct, of which the sales expense rate is 5.40%, year-on-year + 1.88pct; the management expense rate is 9.41%, year-on-year + 3.82pct; the financial expense rate is-7.05%, year-on-year-6.38pct, which is an increase in interest income. R & D expenditure rate of 5.20%, year-on-year + 0.49pct, the company pays attention to R & D investment, strengthen the construction of R & D team, at the same time improve the level of technology and equipment, and continue to consolidate existing advantages.
The commissioning and delivery of the diaphragm production line is progressing smoothly, waiting for revenue confirmation.
In terms of ① equipment, the company continues to expand in the field of intelligent equipment, and has successively developed and produced a series of domestic paper film packaging equipment, such as casting film machine, film blowing machine, slitting machine and so on. at the same time, these equipment can be used in lithium battery diaphragm production equipment. In terms of ② process, the production process of subsidiary Jiujiang Oke film packaging materials coincides with the casting, shaping and cutting processes in the wet diaphragm process, except that the stretching and extraction processes are different, and the company has mastered the core processes such as stretching and extraction. For ③ customers, according to the company announcement, the company signed the first wet diaphragm production line contract with Jiujiang Guanli in June 2022. Jiujiang Guanli was established in 2015, focusing on the research and development, production and sales of wet lithium diaphragm and composite coated diaphragm, deep ploughing wet diaphragm processing and manufacturing field, accumulating more than 100 patents, and the company and Jiujiang Guanli carried out in-depth cooperation on the first diaphragm production line. It is beneficial to realize the complementarity of diaphragm production process and mechanical manufacturing technology. ④ delivery progress, according to the company announcement, the current production line has been successfully delivered and in the acceptance, the whole line with material debugging is progressing smoothly, the end of the month is expected to enter the equipment acceptance link, width of 4.5 meters, target speed of 100m, the rate of quality products has yet to be verified. With the completion of commissioning and acceptance of the company's lithium diaphragm production line, it is expected to open the second growth curve.
Investment advice:
Due to the decrease in the company's daily paper equipment orders and the decline in gross profit margin, taking into account the acceptance of the lithium diaphragm production line and the progress of revenue recognition, we downgrade the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 5.45 billion yuan, respectively. The year-on-year growth rate is 5.38%, 69.71% and 47.24%, respectively, and the net profit is 1.89288 million yuan. The year-on-year growth rate was 3.24%, 52.40%, 54.79% respectively. Lower the six-month target price to 85.03 yuan, corresponding to 2023 PE 30X, downgraded to "overweight-A" rating.
Risk Tips:
The company's new technology research and development is not as expected, the company's new product verification is not as expected, new customer development is not as expected, customer concentration is high, downstream demand growth is not as expected.