AVICHINA INDUSTRY&TECHNOLOGY(2357.HK):GOOD EARNINGS GROWTH ON CONSOLIDATING ACQUIRED ASSETS
AVICHINA INDUSTRY&TECHNOLOGY(2357.HK):GOOD EARNINGS GROWTH ON CONSOLIDATING ACQUIRED ASSETS
AviChina reported a strong set of interim earnings growth, with sales and net profit up 22% and 26.8% YoY. The strong sales growth was mainly driven by the consolidation of the acquired Avic Electromechanical (20.7% YoY in 1H23) and the high growth (56.3% YoY) of helicopter demand recovery. In 2H23, the two segments would likely to deliver the strong growth. With high base, the growth outlook in 2024 would turn normalised unless there will be further new acquisition. We raise the sales and net profit estimate in 2H23. We also raise the target multiple from the previous 13.9x23E P/E to 15.0x23E P/E, still conservative compared to historical average trading multiple of 18.7x P/E. New TP implies 59% upside, retain BUY rating.
AviChina報告了強勁的中期收益增長，銷售額和淨利潤同比增長22％和26.8％。強勁的銷售增長主要得益於被收購的中航機電的整合（上半年同比增長20.7％）以及直升機需求復甦的高增長（同比增長56.3％）。在23年下半年，這兩個細分市場可能會實現強勁的增長。在高基數下，除非有更多的新收購，否則2024年的增長前景將恢復正常。我們在23年下半年提高了銷售額和淨利潤預期。我們還將目標倍數從之前的13.9x23e市盈率上調至15.0x23e市盈率，與歷史平均市盈率18.7倍的交易倍數相比仍然保守。新的目標價意味着59％的上漲空間，維持買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Sales and net profit rose by 22% and 26.8% YoY in 1H23, beating consensus and our estimate. The surprise mainly comes from the strong sales rebound of helicopter and good growth of the acquired Avic Electromechanical. 56.3% YoY sales growth in helicopter on low base represented the procurement recovery of local government and central government. AviChina consolidates the acquired Avic Electromechanical in 2023 and restated 2022. The combined sales of Avionics and Electromechanical grew by 20.7% YoY in 1H23.
23年上半年的銷售額和淨利潤同比增長22％和26.8％，超過了共識和我們的預期。驚喜主要來自直升機的強勁銷售反彈以及被收購的中航機電的良好增長。低基數直升機的銷售額同比增長56.3％，代表了地方政府和中央政府的採購復甦。AviChina於2023年合併了收購的中航機電，並於2022年重報。23年上半年，航空電子設備和機電產品的總銷售額同比增長20.7％。
Blended gross margin slightly declined by 23.8% in 1H23 from 24.1% in 1H22, due to the product mix. But SG&A cost rose at only 17.7% YoY, lower than top- line growth. Financial cost remained flat YoY. Thus operating profit and net profit rose at 21.2% and 26.8% YoY in 1H23, a strong earnings growth.
由於產品組合，混合毛利率從上半年的24.1％小幅下降了23.8％。但銷售和收購成本僅同比增長17.7％，低於收入增長。財務成本同比持平。因此，23年上半年的營業利潤和淨利潤分別同比增長21.2％和26.8％，收益增長強勁。
Such good growth momentum may retain in 2H23, driven by the contribution of acquisition and sales rebound in helicopter. In 2024, we expect the growth rate will revert to normalised organic growth of around 10%.
在直升機收購和銷售反彈的推動下，這種良好的增長勢頭可能會在23年下半年保持。我們預計到2024年，增長率將恢復到正常的10％左右的有機增長。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Local government needs a long time to recover the land sale and fiscal budget to support the helicopter procurement.
地方政府需要很長時間才能收回土地銷售和財政預算來支持直升機採購。
Valuation
估價
We raise the sales and net profit estimate in 2H23, and retain the growth estimate in 2024E. AviChina will likely deliver more acquisitions, which could be the catalyst. We also raise the target multiple to 15.0x23E P/E, from previous 13.9x, to reflect the better growth outlook. New TP implies 59% upside, retain BUY rating.
我們在23年下半年提高了銷售額和淨利潤預期，並維持了2024E的增長預期。AviChina可能會進行更多的收購，這可能是催化劑。我們還將目標倍數從之前的13.9倍上調至15.0x23e市盈率，以反映更好的增長前景。新的目標價意味着59％的上漲空間，維持買入評級。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。