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VESYNC(2148.HK):AN ALL-ROUNDED BEAT AND A BULLISH OUTLOOK

VESYNC(2148.HK):AN ALL-ROUNDED BEAT AND A BULLISH OUTLOOK

VESYNC (2148.HK):全面的跳動和看漲的前景
招银国际 ·  2023/08/23 10:27

1H23 result was far more than good, with industry leading sales and net profit growth, plus a declining inventory. And we do think the turnaround is not just here but solid. With such an undemanding valuation of 7x FY23E P/E, backed by a 20% sales CAGR during FY22-25E, we maintain BUY.

2013 年上半年的業績遠不止於此,銷售額和淨利潤增長處於行業領先地位,而且庫存下降。而且我們確實認爲轉機不僅在這裏,而且是穩健的。由於估值如此不高,爲 7 倍 FY23E 市盈率,再加上 FY22-25E 期間20%的銷售複合年增長率,我們維持買入。

1H23 result beat expectations. Vesync's sales grew by 24% YoY to US$ 277mn inline CMBI est. and its net profit surged by 111% YoY to US$ 33mn, beating CMBI est. by 15% and reaching the high-end of its pre-announced profit alert (around 70% to 120%) in 1H23. We believe the speedy sales growth was driven by: 1) strong performance of its new products (e.g. Tower shape and mega sized aur purifier, humidifier, pressure cooker and rice cooker), 2) rapid offline, EU and Japan expansions and 3) resumption of growth from the Etekcity. And the jump in NP margin to ~12%, far better than company's guidance of 10%+ was a mixture of: 1) decent GP margin expansion, thru better transportation, raw material costs, ASP hike and more value engineering, etc., 2) better-than-expected government grants and effective tax rate, but 3) higher-than-expected opex (including A&P expenses and professional fees associated with the products' recall).

23年上半年的業績超出預期。Vesync的銷售額同比增長24%,至2.77億美元CMBI預計,其淨利潤同比增長111%,至3,300萬美元,超過招銀國際估值15%,並在23年上半年達到其預先宣佈的利潤預報的高端(約70%至120%)。我們認爲,銷售的快速增長是由以下因素推動的:1)其新產品(例如塔形和超大型空氣淨化器、加溼器、壓力鍋和電飯煲)的強勁表現;2)快速離線、歐盟和日本的擴張;3)Etekcity恢復增長。NP利潤率躍升至約12%,遠好於公司預期的10%以上,這是以下因素的混合體:1)通過更好的運輸、原材料成本、ASP上漲和更多的價值工程等;2)政府補助金和有效稅率好於預期,但3)運營支出(包括與產品召回相關的A&P費用和專業費用)高於預期。

The robust FY23E guidance was reiterated but we continue to stay more conservative. Management had maintained its FY23E guidance (20%+ sales growth and 10%+ NP margin) and in fact, they are foreseeing potentially faster growth in 2H23E and even in FY24E, thanks to: 1) prosperous new products pipeline (e.g. new generation air purifier and Air fryer, more smart products, as well as new categories such as the pet care products), 2) more upgrades of its APP and addition of new smart functions, 3) further expansions in other countries in EU and Japan, and 4) more cross selling of products and brands to retailers in the offline channel. Margin wise, we also believe the GP margin and even NP margin can further expand, as: 1) cheaper shipping costs to kick in, 2) CNY depreciation continues, 3) more value engineering are placed to refine the product margins. Since we are more cautious about the potential resumption of import tariffs, we are forecasting a decline in GP margin and just a mild NP margin increase in FY24E (vs FY23E).

重申了強有力的 FY23E 指導方針,但我們繼續保持更爲保守。管理層維持了 FY23E 的預期(銷售額增長20%以上,淨利潤率超過10%),事實上,他們預計 2H23E 甚至 FY24E 的增長可能會更快,這要歸功於:1)蓬勃發展的新產品線(例如新一代空氣淨化器和空氣炸鍋、更智能的產品以及寵物護理產品等新類別),2)其應用程序的更多升級和新的智能功能的增加,3)在其他國家的進一步擴張歐盟和日本,以及4)通過線下渠道向零售商進行更多產品和品牌的交叉銷售。在利潤率方面,我們還認爲,GP利潤率甚至NP利潤率可以進一步擴大,因爲:1)降低運費,2)人民幣繼續貶值,3)更多的價值工程來完善產品利潤率。由於我們對可能恢復的進口關稅更加謹慎,我們預計 FY24E 的國內生產總值利潤率將下降,NP 利潤率將溫和上升(與 FY23E 相比)。

Maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$ 6.71 after the significant jump on earnings. We raise our FY23E/ 24E/ 25E net profit forecasts by 43%/ 39%/ 37% to factor in: 1) boost from those successful new products, 2) better- than-expected GP margin, and 3) higher government grants and better tax rate. Considering the robust growth (17% sales and 28% net profit CAGR during FY21-25E), its current valuation of 7x is extremely attractive. Our TP is based on 14x FY23E P/E (unchanged, vs 3 years average of 12x).

收益大幅上漲後,維持買入並將目標提高至6.71港元。我們將23E/24E/25E財年的淨利潤預期上調了43%/39%/37%,原因是:1)這些成功的新產品的提振,2)GP利潤率高於預期,以及3)更高的政府補助金和更高的稅率。考慮到強勁的增長(FY21-25E 期間銷售額爲17%,淨利潤複合年增長率爲28%),其目前的7倍估值極具吸引力。我們的目標基於14倍的 FY23E 市盈率(保持不變,而3年平均市盈率爲12倍)。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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