Copper and gold mining enterprises backed by central enterprises, undervalued, high dividend rate, given "buy" rating, we judge that copper and gold have room to rise in the medium term; the company is a copper and gold mining enterprise backed by central enterprises, the value is undervalued, and the dividend rate is higher in the stable profit stage. We estimate that the 23-year return net profit of the company is only US $11 million, mainly due to the suspension of production at Jiama Mine; under 24-year recurrent maternity leave, the estimated return net profit for 24-25 years is US $338 million, compared with US $0.86 for three years corresponding to EPS 0.03 shock. 23 years of abnormal operation of the company, EPS is not a reference, we take 24 years of EPS as the target price calculation basis. The 24-year comparable company Wind unanimously expected PE 7.3x. Considering that the market capitalization of the company is smaller than that of the comparable company, and the time for the resumption of production of Jiama Mine is uncertain, the company is given a 24-year 5.5X PE, corresponding to a target price of HK $36.73, covering the buy rating for the first time.
The main metal varieties involved in the company, copper and gold, have room to rise in the medium term. We think that the company's stock price is mainly driven by the rise and fall of copper and gold prices, and judge that copper and gold prices have room to rise in the medium term. According to Huatai Metal 23 May 23, "short-term flat, or jump in the abyss": gold, the United States monetary policy at the end of raising interest rates without entering a period of interest rate cuts, gold prices or shock consolidation. Then, if interest rates are cut in the United States, gold prices will rise again; for copper, the short-term supply and demand pattern is still likely to deteriorate, and copper prices have room for downward storage. However, with the reduction of new supply and the recovery of overseas economy in 24-25, the traditional overseas demand is expected to resonate with domestic traditional and new energy demand, and the copper supply gap may widen again. We are optimistic about the trend of copper prices in the medium term.
It is possible to underestimate the value of the company.
First of all, the company received support from the resources of the China Gold Group, the controlling shareholder of the central enterprise, and other aspects. The company said that the acquisition target mainly came from the international project channel of the China Gold Group. The Group has planned 25 gold and non-ferrous metal production bases in China and the important metallogenic belt along the "Belt and Road Initiative" line. CICC Hong Kong, a wholly-owned subsidiary, has 4 overseas gold and copper mines. We believe that the company has the opportunity to undertake the group's high-quality overseas assets. Secondly, the company's existing mines Changshanhao gold mine and Jiama copper-gold polymetallic mine are of high quality to support the company's sustainable production; finally, compared with H-share and A-share major copper and gold mining enterprises, we find that the company's market capitalization / resource ratio is relatively low.
In the stage of stable profit, the company has a strong willingness to pay dividends and a high dividend rate.
Since 2020, the company has entered a stable profit stage, and the company has achieved continuous high dividends. The total cash dividends for 20-22 years are 3.70,7.77 and 1.151 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding dividend payout rates are 42.59,37.29,66.30% respectively. Since 2006, the cumulative dividend rate is 33.70%. The dividend rate for 20-22 years is as high as 8.36,9.34 and 12.68%, which is the highest for H-share major copper and gold mining enterprises.
Risk hints: metal price fluctuations, Jiama copper-gold polymetallic ore recovery later than expected, a single source of profit.