The offline advantage is solid, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Ximai Food 2023Q2 realized revenue of 314 million yuan, an increase of 11.19% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 26 million yuan, an increase of 44.58% over the same period last year. We maintain the profit forecast for 2023-2025. It is estimated that the return net profit in 2023-2025 will be 1.32,1.61 and 188 million yuan, and the EPS will be 0.59,0.72,0.84 yuan respectively. The current stock price is 23.8,19.5,16.7 times corresponding to PE. The proportion of the company's online channels is gradually increasing, and the advantages of offline channels are stable, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Revenue increased steadily, compound oats performed better, and cold oats gradually stabilized.
Xi Mai Food 2023Q2 business income is still growing steadily: (1) sub-product point of view: pure oatmeal revenue is the same as the same period; composite oat products contribute to the main increase, the growth rate is fast; cold food oats gradually stabilized. (2) from the perspective of sub-channels: with the continuous development of new channels, the channel sales of 2023H1 snack stores increased by 255% compared with the same period last year; online e-commerce channels continued to break through, and the company became the number one brand in the oat industry on multiple platforms. Looking to the future, the company continues to promote new research and development to promote product upgrading, online and offline omni-channel layout, we expect the company's revenue to grow by double digits in 2023.
The increase in net profit margin is mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin and the decrease in sales rates.
2023Q2 net interest rate increased by 1.91pct to 8.3% compared with the same period last year, mainly because the sales expense rate decreased to 28.51% by 3.53pct. The main reasons for the decline in the rate of sales expenses are: (1) the online live broadcast cost of 2022Q2 is larger, the cost of new product promotion is increased, and the base number is higher; (2) the company optimizes the online and offline cost, accurate cost, and improves the efficiency of cost investment. 2023Q2's gross profit margin rose to 43.24%, mainly due to: (1) the company's gross profit margin of composite oats and cold food oats increased; (2) the product structure continued to upgrade. Looking forward to 2023, the company will continue to implement accurate expenditure, and it is expected that the annual rate will continue to decline; the cost of raw materials will still be high, but the company can alleviate the cost pressure through product structure upgrading, and the gross profit margin is expected to be relatively stable.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risks, new product promotion risks less than expected, food safety risks.