FRIENDTIMES INC.(6820.HK):LOOKING INTO MODERATE RECOVERY IN FY24E
FRIENDTIMES INC.(6820.HK):LOOKING INTO MODERATE RECOVERY IN FY24E
FriendTime's 1H23 results missed our estimates/consensus, with rev -25% YoY and adj. net loss at RMB78mn on declining legacy games and soft new titles.Looking into FY24E, we expect moderate recovery with the launch of the Twist of the Fate, and the company to turn a profit with RMB38mn in FY24E. To factor in game softness and potential S&M expenses incurred by new launches, we cut FY23-25E rev by 21.1-25.8%, while trimmed NPM by 1-15ppts. Our DCF-based TP was adjusted to HK$1.32.
FriendTime的23年上半年業績未達到我們的預期/共識，同比增長-25％，調整後淨虧損爲7,800萬元人民幣，這要歸因於傳統遊戲和軟質新遊戲。展望 FY24E，我們預計隨着命運轉折的推出，將出現溫和的復甦，該公司將在 FY24E 中實現3,800萬元人民幣的盈利。考慮到遊戲的疲軟性以及新版本可能產生的標準普爾管理費用，我們將 FY23-25E 轉速下調了21.1-25.8％，同時將NPM下調了1-15個百分點。我們基於差價合約的目標價調整爲1.32港元。
1H23 soft on game decline and heavier S&M. 1H23 rev declined 25% YoY, 34% below consensus, mainly attributable to 1) weaker-than-expected legacy games; 2) soft A story of Lala's: Rising Star with S&M scaling back for unsatisfied user retention; and 3) high base due to launch of Promise of Linyun in 1H22. Adj. net loss came in at RMB78mn, dragged by promotion of A story of Lala and RMB63mn impairment of the deferred tax assets.
由於遊戲下跌和標普走高，上半年疲軟。23年上半年同比下降25％，低於預期34％，這主要歸因於1）傳統遊戲低於預期；2）疲軟拉拉的故事：標普因用戶留存率不滿意而縮減規模；3）由於Promise of Linyun將於22年上半年推出，基數較高。經調整後的淨虧損爲7,800萬元人民幣，這得益於《拉拉的報道》的宣傳以及遞延所得稅資產減值6300萬元人民幣。
Looking into moderate recovery in FY24E. Due to the lack of new launches and declining legacy games, 2H23E might still bear pressure (forecasting rev -25% YoY), before the launch of The Twist the Fate (ToF, 浮生忆玲珑) in 4Q23E/FY24E. On the flip side, FT is likely to achieve breakeven in 2H23E (forecasting net profit of RMB0.76mn), thanks to stringent cost control on both staffing and project management, along with lower S&M expenses. Looking into FY24E, we expect FT to see moderate recovery (forecasting +23% YoY), backed by contribution of ToF. In Jul 2023, the game launched a one-month "Summer Beta Test" with in-game purchases enabled. We expect ToF to be launched in 4Q23E/1H24E and achieve meaningful rev contribution in FY24E.Given S&M expenses for launch are front-end loaded, margin might be diluted in the near term. As such, we forecast FY24E rev to achieve positive growth, and turn to a profit with RMB38mn for the whole year.
正在考慮 FY24E 的適度復甦。由於缺少新發行的遊戲以及傳統遊戲的減少，在23/24財年第四季度推出The Twist the Fate（ToF，Bignemory）之前，2H23E 可能仍會承受壓力（預計同比增長-25％）。另一方面，英國《金融時報》很可能會在 2H23E 中實現盈虧平衡（預計淨利潤爲76萬元人民幣），這要歸功於對人員配備和項目管理的嚴格成本控制，以及較低的標準普爾管理費用。展望 FY24E，我們預計英國《金融時報》將出現溫和的復甦（預計同比增長23％），這得益於ToF的貢獻。2023 年 7 月，該遊戲推出了爲期一個月的 “夏季測試版”，支持遊戲內購買。我們預計ToF將在23E/1H24E的第四季度推出，並在24財年實現可觀的收入貢獻。鑑於S&M的發佈費用是前端的，利潤率可能會在短期內被稀釋。因此，我們預測 FY24E rev 將實現正增長，全年盈利爲人民幣 3,800萬元人民幣。
Diversified genre and overseas expansion for LT growth. In 1H23, overseas market accounted for 39% of total rev (vs. 25% in 1H22). Apart from female games, FT will test the water for martial arts game (e.g. Code: WX) and European royalty type (Code: PE) in FY24E. We expect its diversified category & overseas expansion to reduce concentration and bring LT growth.
多元化的類型和海外擴張促進了LT的增長。在23年上半年，海外市場佔總收入的39％（而上半年爲25％）。除了女性遊戲外，英國《金融時報》還將在 FY24E 中測試武術遊戲（例如代碼：WX）和歐洲版稅類型（代碼：PE）。我們預計，其多元化類別和海外擴張將降低集中度並帶來LT增長。
Maintain BUY. To factor in soft game and potential S&M expenses incurred by ToF, we cut FY23-25E rev by 21.1-25.8%, while trimmed NPM by 1-15ppts.Our DCF-based TP was adjusted to HK$1.32.
維持買入。考慮到疲軟的博弈和ToF產生的潛在標準普爾併購支出，我們將FY23-25E 轉速下調了21.1-25.8％，同時將NPM下調了1-15個百分點。我們基於DCF的目標價調整爲1.32港元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。